Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 27 June 2007

Norges Bank Growth forecasts Consensus Forecasts GDP. Percentage change on previous year Source: Consensus Forecasts

Norges Bank 6 House prices 1) and housing starts in the US Seasonally adjusted. 12-month rise 2) January 2003 – May 2007 (Housing starts April) 1) Median price for dwellings 2) 3-month moving average Housing starts Existing dwellings New dwellings Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

Norges Bank Equities Indices,1 November 2006 = November 2006 – 25 June 2007 Source: Reuters US Japan Emerging economies Norway Euro area US 7

Norges Bank 8 Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices USD per barrel. 3 January 2002 – 25 June June 2007 Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank Previous monetary policy meeting (29 May 2007)

Norges Bank Current key policy rate for the G-10 currencies, and market expectations for the next 3 and 12 months 1) Sources: Bloomberg and Reuters Current3-month12-month 1New Zealand 2Australia 3UK 4US Norway 5Canada / NorwayNorwayUS 6Canada 7Euro area Euro area / Sweden 8Sweden 9Switzerland 10Japan 1) At 26 June

Norges Bank Change in international effective exchange rates since MPR 1/07 At 25 June 2007 Sources: Norges Bank, Bank of England and Bloomberg 10

Norges Bank Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg and Norges Bank Key policy rates and forward rates As at previous monetary policy meeting and at 25 June US Euro area 25 June 2007 Previous monetary policy meeting (29 May) Sweden UK

Norges Bank Market before MPR 1 Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank Market after MPR 1 Market before MPR 2 Market after MPR 2 MPR1 MPR2 Interest rate paths Sweden 12

Norges Bank Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters and Norges Bank I-44 (left-hand scale) Weighted interest rate differential (right-hand scale) 25 June ) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone. 3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) 1) January 2002 – December 2010 Average June 2007 Previous monetary policy meeting (29 May 2007) 13 I-44 at 25 June 2007

Norges Bank Yields on 10-year government bonds 1 January 2006 – 22 June 2007 Sources: Reuters Norway US Euro area Sweden UK

Norges Bank Various inflation indicators 12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – May 2007 Source: Statistics Norway Weighted median CPI-ATE 20 per cent trimmed mean CPI 14

Norges Bank 13 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 1) Norges Bank's projections. CPI-ATE Total and by supplier sector. Projections MPR 1/ month rise. Per cent. June 2004 – May 2007 Domestically produced gods and services (0.7) 1) Imported consumer goods (0.3) 1) CPI-ATE

Norges Bank Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 1) Norges Bank's projections. CPI-ATE Total and by supplier sector. Projections MPR 2/ month rise. Per cent. June 2004 – May 2007 Domestically produced gods and services (0.7) 1) Imported consumer goods (0.3) 1) CPI-ATE

Norges Bank Regional network - expectations of a rise in sales prices in the next 12 months Diffusion index¹ ) ¹ ) Share that answer higher + (0.5 x share that answer unchanged). Retail trade and household services Domestically oriented manufacturing, building and construction and corporate services Source: Norges Bank 15

Norges Bank Capacity utilisation and labour supply Will the enterprise find it difficult to accommodate an (unexpected/expected) rise in demand? Per cent Capacity utilisation Labour supply Source: Norges Bank 17

Norges Bank House prices 12-month rise, annualised seasonally adjusted monthly rise and annualised rise in 3-month, moving, centred average. Per cent January 2002 – May 2007 Seasonally adjusted monthly rise, annualised 12-month growth. Annualised rise in 3-month moving average Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, ECON, Finn.no, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms and Norges Bank 18

Norges Bank 12-month growth Growth in 3-month moving average, annualised Growth in domestic credit (C2) to households Per cent. Monthly figures. January 2002 – April 2007 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 19

Norges Bank 20 Property prices and corporate debt and liquid assets Change on same month/half year previous year. Per cent. January 2001 – April 2007 (C3 March) Commercial property prices Debt 1) and liquid assets 2) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 1) Mainland non-financial enterprises (C3). 2) Non-financial enterprises' liquid assets (M2). Total credit (C3) Money supply (M2)

Norges Bank Mainland GDP Growth on previous quarter. Seasonally adjusted. Per cent 2005 Q1 – 2007 Q3 1) 1) Projection for 07 Q2 and 07 Q3. See the box "Short-term projections for mainland GDP growth" in Inflation Report 2/06 for a description of the different models. Monthly indicator BVARMPR 2/07 ARIMAActual VAR Regional network Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 21

Norges Bank Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Baseline scenarios in MPR 1/07 and MPR 2/07 MPR 1/07 Output gap Key policy rate MPR 2/07 MPR 1/07 CPI-ATE MPR 2/07 MPR 1/07 CPI 22

Norges Bank Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank Market 25 June 2007 Market before MPR 1/07 (14 March) Key policy rate in baseline scenario and estimated forward rates 1) Per cent. At 25 June 2007 I) A credit risk premium and a technical difference of 0.20 percentage point have been deducted to make the forward rates comparable with the key policy rate. Baseline scenario MPR 2/07 23

Norges Bank 24 Executive Board meeting 27 June 2007