Agriculture & Adaptation to Climate Change John Reilly Massachusetts Institute of Technology Appearance before the Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry 25 March 2003, Ottawa, Canada

Climate, Weather, & Markets  Climate change: beneficial or detrimental  Time Scale—crop season, decade, century  Persistent trend, variability  Beyond the farm gate: resources, pollution, transportation, communities  Observed trends, predicted changes.

US Regional Production Changes, Canadian Center Climate

Regional Production Changes, Hadley Center Climate

Changes in Resource Use, Canadian and Hadley Center Climates

Adaptation: Cautions  A few years may mislead with regard to the long term trend; predictability at relevant spatial scales is a distant goal or impossibility.  Is an adaptive investment viable if trend persists? irrigation may work for a while but not long if the water source disappears.  Economic assistance may reduce incentive to make the difficult but necessary changes.

Adaptation  Economics and Management Price (profit, loss) as signals. Risk management & market instruments.  Information Monitoring/analysis of weather trends Improved medium-run forecasting Education re. climate change & potential responses.  Specific Technological Responses Water management Crop varieties, planting dates Pest management