MARCH 2013 UPDATE S A Reserve Bank Composite Leading Indicator Dr Johan Snyman STELLENBOSCH 31 March 2013

S A Reserve Bank Composite Leading Indicator for Jan 2013 The composite leading business cycle indicator increased by 0,9 per cent in January 2013 compared with the preceding month. Six of the ten component time series that were available for January 2013 increased, while four decreased. The largest positive contributions in January came from an increase in the export commodity price index as well as an increase in the prices of all classes of shares traded on the JSE. The major negative contributions to the movement in the leading indicator in January came from a narrowing of the interest rate spread, followed by a deterioration in the BER’s volume of orders in the manufacturing sector. Source: SARB CLI Release

The data for Jan 2013 reflect an index that has been rising for seven consecutive months. This index usually leads the overall economy by between six months and one year.

In annual percentage change terms, the current index is showing a recurring pattern, i.e. a rapid rise during the early stages of an economic revival, followed by a sharp drop as comparative base effects kick in. When compared to the previous month, the rate of change is 0.9%.

Thanks for your attention … any questions? Please contact … Johan Snyman