The Analysis Model of Global Flow of Funds in Theory and Practice Nan Zhang Hiroshima Shudo University
Contents A doubtful recycling in global flow of funds Model building Overseas flow of funds in China The conclusion of the analysis
Source: Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States, March 2006Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States, March 2006
Source: World Bank. Global Development Finance 2005
Overseas fund flow is increasing in China (100 million RMB) Source: The People ’ s Bank of China Quarterly Statistical Bulletin
The survey of research literature H.Chenery & M.Strout,1966 (Two-Gap model) Mundell-Fleming model, 1968 K. Marwah & L. R. Klein model,1983 石田定夫,1993 （『日本経済の資金循 環』） 桜川,2002 （「国際移動の動学モデル」） 渋谷浩,2003( 「経済発展と資本逃避」 )
What is global flow of funds? 石田 (1993) pp national flow of funds → global flow of funds international capital movements → global flow of funds 山本 (2002) p39 各国の経常収支不均衡がどのよう国際資本移動によってファイナン スされているかを表したものであり、また国際資本取引における各 国の相互依存関係の特徴を単純化したものである。 張 (2005) ｐ 32 国内の貯蓄投資バランスと資金過不足に結び付けて、経常収支 不均衡をファイナンスするなどの対外金融資産調達と運用のために 引起された国際資金の流れであり、また国内と国際の面から経常収 支と資本収支における各国の相互依存関係の特徴を表したものであ る。
The theoretical outline of analysis Savings-investment and current account balance The financial markets balance Net fund outflows
Theoretical model
The method of model building Identification Estimation Evaluation Prediction Three Stage Least Squares method: 3SLS
Data: Flow of Funds Account, FOF;Flow of Funds Account, FOF Balance of Payments, BOP; International Financial Statistics, IFS ; World Economic Outlook, WEC; Bank for International Settlements, BIS; （ Quarterly Locational International Banking Statistics ） （ Semi-annual Consolidated International Banking Statistics ） Global Development Finance, GDF ; The Institute of International Finance, IIF; Treasury International Capital, TIC);
Overseas flow of funds in China (100 million RMB) Source: The People ’ s Bank of China Quarterly Statistical Bulletin
The characteristics of overseas fund flows in China, 1992 – 2004: (100 million RMB) Balance of savings-investment : 1,194 Current-account : 1,755 Overseas capital inflow: 4,645 Domestic capital outflow: 2,133 Foreign reserve assets : -3,779 Capital flight : Net capital inflows 2,512 – FER 3,779 – Capital flight 478 ＝ -1,745 （ continue to export capital per annum ）
A doubtful recycling in China The constitution of foreign reserve assets CA=1755, FRA=3779 The matter of financial control system The risk of the fund flows
Source:
Source: World Bank. Global Development Finance 2005
The conclusion of the analysis Balance of savings-investment ： Current-account : International capital inflows: Net outflows from china: Foreign reserve assets; Capital flight The influence of the American factor
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