I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Headquarters U.S. Air Force Strategic Challenges of Defense Planning Presentation to the Association of Strategic Planning 19 May 2011

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Agenda Challenges for Defense Planners Resources Uncertainty of the Future World Acquisition Processes Technology and Innovation Responding to the Challenges “Backcasting” Changing How we Look at the Enterprise Linking Strategy to Resources thru an End-to-End Process Using a “Corporate” Approach Instilling an Efficiencies Mindset 2

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e National Security Strategy "We will continue to rebalance our military capabilities to excel at counterterrorism, counterinsurgency, stability operations, and meeting increasingly sophisticated security threats, while ensuring our force is ready to address the full range of military operations. This includes preparing for increasingly sophisticated adversaries, deterring and defeating aggression in anti- access environments, and defending the United States and supporting civil authorities at home.“ -- National Security Strategy,

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Resource Context 4 “The fact that we are a nation at war and facing an uncertain world, I believe, calls for sustaining current military force structure – Army brigades, Marine regiments, Air Force wings, Navy ships. This typically requires regular real growth in the defense budget ranging from two to three percent above inflation “ - SECDEF, 8 May 2010 Defense as a Percentage of GDP

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Long-Range Projections put Compression on Discretionary Spending 5 Percent of GDP

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Challenges of the Time Horizon Did anyone predict that the U.S. would be relying on Russia for a manned space missions only 25 years after the Challenger explosion? Did anyone predict in 1986 that members of the Warsaw pact would be part of NATO and would support a U.S.-led coalition for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan? Did anyone predict that we would have over 100,000 troops deployed to Afghanistan 22 years after the Soviets withdrew? Did anyone 20 or 30 years ago predict that China would be the “near-peer” competitor? Did anyone predict that the we would be investing so heavily in alternative sources of energy? 6

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Acquisition Processes “It can take 10 to 20 years for modernization programs to be incorporated into the military’s capabilities, compared with approximately 18 months for the commercial sector to do so.” – 21st Century Strategic Technology Vectors, Defense Science Board, April “The Department of Defense's conventional modernization programs seek a 99 percent solution over a period of years. Stability and counterinsurgency missions require 75 percent solutions over a period of months.” – Robert Gates, “A Balanced Strategy: Reprogramming the Pentagon for a New Age,” Foreign Affairs, Jan / Feb “Many of these advanced capabilities…are largely software-driven, with upgrades and changes that are enabled by mere software updates. This calls not just for ‘more’ or ‘better’ systems in response, but also for more autonomous and evolvable systems, which, we believe, would prove effective in helping us contain, at least in part, our problem of rising costs.” – Gen. Norton Schwartz, Remarks at the Defense Programs Conference, Arlington, Va., March 2,

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Technology and Innovation Strategic Innovation U.S. can no longer assume that it will stay ahead of its adversaries by simply spending more on research, development, and procurement. Need new ideas to confront the threats of the future. Technological Innovation “The U.S. government and its defense partners no longer are at the leading edge of most of the militarily-relevant technologies, having been displaced by international commercial industries and markets.” 21st Century Strategic Technology Vectors, Defense Science Board, April

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 9 Backcasting Building Partnerships Agile Combat Support Rapid Global Mobility Special Operations Global Precision Attack Global Integrated ISR Command and Control Cyberspace Superiority Space Superiority Air Superiority Nuclear Deterrence Operations Building Partnerships Agile Combat Support Personnel Recovery Rapid Global Mobility Special Operations Global Precision Attack Global Integrated ISR Command and Control Cyberspace Superiority Space Superiority Air Superiority Nuclear Deterrence Operations PlanningProgramming (FYDP) Budget $ Programmed Force Planning Force Personnel Recovery Vision

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Changing How We look at the Enterprise 10

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Service Core Functions Hold at risk or strike rapidly and persistently any target to achieve precise effects Global Precision Attack Building Partnerships Set conditions for interaction with partner, competitor or adversary leaders, military forces or relevant populations Ability of commanders to integrate operations in multiple theaters at multiple levels Command & Control Deliver dominance in space over adversaries Space Superiority Operate, maintain, and secure nuclear forces to deter an adversary from taking action against US vital interests Nuclear Deterrence Ops Specialized airpower operations conducted in hostile, denied or politically sensitive environments Special Operations Deliver dominance in the air battle Air Superiority Conducting and synchronizing intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance across all domains Global Integrated ISR Deliver dominance in cyberspace of one force over another that permits conduct of operations by the former Cyberspace Superiority Recover and return of US military, DoD civilians and DoD contractor personnel Personnel Recovery Timely deployment, employment, sustainment, augmentation and redeployment of military forces and capabilities Rapid Global Mobility Field, protect and sustain air, space and cyber forces Agile Combat Support 11

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Futures Game Linking Strategy to Resources thru an End-to-End Process 12 Annual Planning and Programming Guidance Headquarters, Major Commands, Wings USAF Joint Priorities, Goals, Objectives, Metrics Planning Force President’s Budget Program Objective Memorandum Warfighter Support Organize Train & Equip Execution Congress Authorize / Appropriate Congress Authorize / Appropriate National Guidance (QDR, NSS, NMS, NDS, NPR, SPR, DPPG) Air Force Strategic Plan Air Force Strategic Plan Core Function Master Plans Strategic Environmental Assessment

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Core Function Master Plans: Form and Function Align strategy, operating concepts and capabilities by Service Core Function over a 20 year period Address independent, Service Core Function related perspectives across the Air Force Enable a holistic approach to the Total Force Enterprise Improve Risk Assessment credibility and fidelity Identify mitigation strategies in light of anticipated fiscal and operational challenges Prioritize Science & Technology on far-term strategy Inform force structure decisions for each fiscal year’s Planning Force and Annual Planning and Programming Guidance 13 CFMP-Content Strategic Vision Programmed Force Extended Planning Force Proposal Total Force Enterprise Manpower Science and Technology Efficiencies Operations and Maintenance Challenges Metrics Programmed Force Operational View Decision Space Summary CFMPs form a common framework linking strategic planning and programming to improve what the Air Force brings to America’s security

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Air Force Corporate Structure 14 Mission Panels Global Mob, SOF, PR, BP Space Superiority & ISR C2 & Cyber Superiority Air Superiority & Global Attack Nuclear Deterrence Operations Logistics RDT&E Installation Support Personnel & Training CS&P Mission Support Panels Air Force Group Air Force Council Air Force Board Investment Budget Review Committee Strategic Planning Committee Operating Budget Review Committee

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Efficiencies Strategy Focus on reducing “tail” to buy “tooth” Programmed efficiencies must be achievable & require active governance structure Efficiencies cannot just be top-down Maximize the value of every taxpayer dollar Shift resources from overhead to force structure & modernization Look hard at all programs & appropriations for waste & opportunity Improve & sustain warfighter capability Not just an “event” -- must become a way of doing business 15 “We are committed to a deliberate and ongoing process to enhance capabilities by reducing overhead and support functions and shifting resources to warfighter and readiness programs” Joint Statement from the SECAF/CSAF - 6 Jan, 2011

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e What Keeps Planners Awake 16 Backcasting from the future in an environment of severe fiscal constraints Making the right choices – when we won’t be able to buy everything we think we need Reducing costs without reducing capability, manpower, energy, or other O&M Steering innovation linked with the future environment What is the right Active Component/Reserve Component mix for various mission areas Balancing across the core functions Balancing between conventional and irregular warfare and A2AD Balancing modernization, readiness, and force structure Mitigating threats to availability and delivery of energy

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Worthy Advice “Gentleman, we are out of money. Therefore, we will have to think.” 17