Fredericksburg Regional Alliance Welcomes Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis.

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Presentation transcript:

Fredericksburg Regional Alliance Welcomes Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University

 Mission: Grow Regional Economy  Only Regional Economic Development Organization in VA that Raises its Own Money  Is Governed by a 16 Member Board of Directors  Business Community Leaders and Elected Officials Serve on the Same Board  One of 16 Regional Economic Development Organizations in Virginia

Thank You City of Fredericksburg Caroline CountyStafford County Spotsylvania CountyKing George County And The Numerous Private Sector Businesses in the Fredericksburg Region

A-Long Realty Advisors Anderson & Strudwick Appian Realty Advisors BB&T Birchwood Power Partners, L.P. Carter Bank & Trust City of Fredericksburg EDA City of Fredericksburg County of Caroline Cox Business Services CVS Distribution Design Craft Homes Dickinson Equipment, Inc. Directive 63 Dominion Virginia Power ECS Mid-Atlantic, LLC English Construction Company, Inc. Fredericksburg Area Association of Realtors Freeman Beverage Company, Inc. G.L.M.G. GEICO Germanna Community College GWRC HCA Hilldrup Moving & Storage Jabberwocky Books & Albertine Prop. Johnson Realty Advisors King George County King George EDA Luck Stone Medicorp Mid-Atlantic Foam MITCO Land Development Co. M&T Bank Muvico Old Dominion Electric Cooperative P.C. Goodloe & Son, Inc. PBGH, LLP PermaTreat Inc. - Corporate Office Peoples Community Bank PNC Bank Pohanka Nissan Cadillac Quarles Petroleum, Inc. Rappahannock Electric Cooperative Robert B. Payne, Inc. Rosner Motors Sands, Anderson, Marks & Miller Silver Companies Spangler Erkert & Associates Splitsville Spotsylvania County Spotsylvania County EDA Stafford County Stafford County EDA Stellar One Thalhimer/Cushman & Wakefield The Garrett Company The Roseman Company The Wardman Companies, Inc. Tommy Mitchell Real Estate Ultimate Pontiac, Buick, GMC, Isuzu Union Bank & Trust Universal Stone & Supplies University of Mary Washington VA Commerce Bank Vanderpool, Frostick & Nishanian, P.C. Verizon Virginia Credit Union Virginia Partners Bank Virginia Community Bank W.J. Vakos & Company W.M. Jordan Company Thank You Investors

Strengths of the Fredericksburg Regional Economy  Healthcare - Destination  Government Contracting  3 Military Bases – Unique Cluster  Federal Payroll (in addition to military)  Location – 46 miles of I-95  Labor Force (1.2 Million) – Reverse Commute  Retail Shopping Destination – 520,000 Trade Area  Tourism and Hospitality Industry  Financial Services, Real Estate and Insurance  Growth in Higher Education  Construction  Local Government  Transportation  Utilities

Fredericksburg Regional Alliance Welcomes Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University

Fredericksburg Regional Alliance December 2, 2010 The Washington Area Economy and The Changing Role of the Federal Government Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University

Quarters After Trough % Change in GDP Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,

U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2006 – 2012 % Source: Global Insight Forecast > > > > > > >

The Washington Economy

Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average

Annual Job Change Washington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Oct 09 – Oct 10 (000s) Washington + 43,700 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by Sector Oct 2009 – Oct 2010 Washington MSA (000s) Total 43,700 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Unemployment Rate % Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted 9.5 – DC 9.2 – U.S. 6.3 – SMD 5.9 – MSA NVA

Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s ) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 37,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS

Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) % DC SM MSA NV Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

The Changing Federal Role

2000 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Local Business 39.5% Non-Local Business 14.4 % Federal 31.3% Procurement 12.0% Hosp. 2.9% Int’l 5.0% Other 6.9% Other Federal 19.3% Other: Health/Education,Media,Assns

2009 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Local Business 38.3% Non-Local Business 11.8 % Federal 36.7% Procurement 19.4% Hosp. 1.9% Int’l 4.6% Other 6.7% Other Federal 17.3 % Other: Health/Education,Media,Assns

Share of Washington Area Economy Northern Virginia Suburban MD D.C. % of GRP

Total Federal Spending Washington Metro Area Billions Current $ Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis Total Procurement

Wages & Salaries Procurement Federal Spending By Type $ Billions

Federal Procurement Washington Metro Area, $ Billions | | TOTAL = $794 B

Job Change by Sector Mar 2000 – Mar 2010 Washington MSA (000s) Total 302,200 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Federal Procurement in The Washington MSA $ Billions Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Reports Total DOD Annual Growth: Total = 11.1 %/yr DOD = 12.7 %/yr

DOD Federal Procurement in MSA Projection of Sec. Gates Proposed Cuts $ Billions Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Reports - $9.5 Billion - 66,000 Jobs

Change in Federal Employment by Administration AdministrationPeriod Wash. Metro U.S. Eisenhower1953 – , ,000 Kennedy-Johnson1961 – , ,000 Nixon-Ford1969 – , ,000 Carter1977 – , ,000 Reagan1981 – , ,000 Bush – , ,000 Clinton1993 – , ,000 Bush – ,900-35,000 Obama , ,000

Federal Employment Washington Metro Area 000s Eisenhower Kennedy – Johnson Nixon - Ford Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush Obama +28

Annual Change in Federal Employment Washington Metro Area 000s | IKE | K/J |Nixon-Ford | Car | Reagan| B1 | Clinton | Bush 2| Ob.

U.S. Retirements240,000 Other Separations144,000 Total Replacements384,000 Net New (in Budget)150,000 Recovery Act Hires Made Permanent 50,000 TOTAL REQUIREMENT584,000 Projected Federal Job Growth* * Full-time, permanent, non-seasonal

Washington Metropolitan Area Total Replacements99,550 Net New26,000 TOTAL125,550 Projected Federal Job Growth* Annual Net New ,500 Annual Net New ,300 Annual Net New ,550 * Full-time, permanent, non-seasonal

Future Job Change by Sector 2010 – 2020 Washington MSA (000s) Total 469,800 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

POLICY-CRA.GMU.EDU

Fredericksburg Regional Alliance Welcomes Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University

The Fredericksburg Regional Alliance Wishes You Happy Holidays! Joyeuses Fêtes! Felices Fiestas! Vesele Praznike! Tanoshii kurisumasu wo! Forhe Feiertage! Mutlu Bayramlar! Jie Ri Yu Kuai! Buone Feste!