1 Thumb Rules “What does it take to build an Academic Fleet?” RADM R. F. Pittenger (Ret.) Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 14 Sept 2010

2 Disclaimer The views expressed in this presentation are the author’s and not those of: WHOI, WHOI-ites,the USN, USNA, UNOLS, COL, NSF, ONR, NSIA, NAS, NSB or OSB. Just mine!! Doesn’t mean they are wrong….. dp

3  Do we need any ships?  What does it take? Motivation Time Money People  Summary

4 Need Ships? Are ships a necessary, if expensive, aspect of oceanography. Some have said, "No!” - Munk/Wunsch "wire the oceans" -Acoustic thermometry/tomography -Do it from space; with UAVs -Observatories -UUVs, AUVs -Gliders, Drifters—Stommel, Swallow -Tele-presence Predictions of their demise have been greatly exaggerated. Studies and reviews tend to say we need more robust ships.

5 Motivation  WW II: German U-boats,-ASW, Japanese Occupation- Amphibious and Submarine ops, Underwater Explosives, bio- fouling. Basic understanding of the ocean environment  Cold War: Soviet Subs/Nuclear Subs, Nuclear Missiles. Detailed understanding and exploitation of the ocean. Pacing the threat.  Science Drivers, Big Science Programs, Exploration --TOGA, WOCE, JGOFS, RIDGE, deep submergence…  Post -Cold War…………?? PC threat. Climate Change? It helps to have well defined threats to National Security.

6 Time It always takes longer than we think.  ARV to AARV: 1980 to 2012  Alvin to HROV: 1992 to 2011  AGOR23 Class: 1983 to 1997 Administrative and budget dead times can not be ignored. It takes years from idea to product. Many budget cycles. Remember that NAVSEA or NSF MREFC process is on critical path. Studies don’t always make them better or get them faster.

7 Money It always costs more than estimates.  Atlantis II $5m vs. $3m 1.66% Revelle/Atlantis $52m vs. $35m 1.48% Knorr/Melville $52m vs. $38m 1.56% AR(R)V $150m vs. (61) (75) (100) HROV $35m vs. (6) (12) (22) % more than they think it ‘should’ cost. --Annual operating costs are 5-7% of acquisition. --Science costs are 2-4 times O & M.

8 People It takes people with fire & power Burke, Watkins, Lehman Saalfeld, Ramberg, Dieter, Jordhe, Kalman, Winokur Revelle, Knauss, Iselin, Fye, Shor, Dinsmore, Byrnes UNOLS Knox, Johnson, Wiebe, DeSilva Fire, Power, Patience and Persistence

9 Summary  It helps to have well defined threats to National Security. (And Science Drivers)  It always takes longer than we think/plan/hope.  It always costs more than we estimate/dream.  It takes the right people in the right places.  And, yes, we need ships!

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Examples of Past “Models” LDEO purchased two ships--off shore--EWING and LANGSETH-- and NSF paid off the ship and cost of money thru the day-rate. Will LANGSETH, a special purpose vessel be fully utilized? NSF/OPP decided to have Chouest build their Antarctic ships, Palmer and Gould, on lease. It is costing them an outrageous amount to continue but the Chouest Bros have political clout. It used to be against OMB rules to charter for more than 10yrs--cheaper to own; is that still the case? NAVSEA tried buying serially produced ships--mud boats. To save time and non-recurring costs. The ships they did build were …. Saving money through buying berthing vans has been tried w/o success—Gyre, Thompson… The Schmitt study recommended trying the lease of ships for special purposes. Numerous past studies and polls of the community have endorsed the UNOLS management model. 12