PROJECT OBJECTIVE To identify and evaluate a suite of management scenarios to address the Old Tampa Bay issues using integrated modeling tools

UNDERSTANDING & APPROACH Integrated set of models – response of key ecological attributes and stressors to various scenarios – spatial and temporal resolution – defensible, quantitative prediction – assessment of the net ecological changes expected due to the scenarios examined

UNDERSTANDING & APPROACH TASK 1 Review & Select Preliminary Scenarios TASK 2 Data Review & Adequacy Assessment “Go-No Go” Decision Point TASK 3 Integrated Model Plan TASK 4 Model Formulation & Testing TASK 5 Model Applications

TASK 1 Old Tampa Bay Management Action Scenario Report – Scenarios – Key ecological attributes OTB Working Group – Consensus building

TASK 2 Existing Information Summary Report – Data Ambient WQ Flows Loadings Seagrass – Studies PCEF Safety Harbor Sediment Accumulation

TASK 2 Data Assessment Report – Data adequacy to predict ecological responses – Relative ranking of scenarios: ecological benefits constraints project costs

Data Needs for Model Parameterization, Calibration/Validation Much of the specific data/information needed in our data warehouse Issues with national databases Data comparability Resolution of data gaps More detailed information in the handout

How will proposed approach address wind- driven and sediment dynamics? Shallow water wind-wave model integrated within hydrodynamic model Spatially/temporally varying wind field input Allowing computation of spatially and temporally varying bottom shear stress Linkage to water quality model and to optical model

How will proposed approach address both varying temporal and spatial scales? Implications of potential modifications on our proposed budget Proposing a 10-year simulation Hydrodynamic and water quality models timesteps of 2-5 minutes – diel DO Proposed various spatial grids to address specific questions These considerations are built into our proposed budget

Hydrologic diversions, operational modifications, and causeway/bridge modifications Watershed modeling addresses operation of structures Sufficient data to address diversions directly Spatial resolution of model grids to resolve areas of impact Hydrodynamic and watershed models will pass changes to WQ model

Redirecting existing WWTP surface water discharges to reuse or other beneficial uses Grizzle-Figg Act - substantial load reductions 11% of OTB TN load from WWTPs remains Potential beneficial uses: Northwest Regional Water Reclamation Facility Reuse System (Orange County, FL)

Implementation of non-structural and structural BMPs Adjustment of EMCs for specific land use types and jurisdictions Development of a BMP layer Feasibility analysis for regional BMPs Inclusion of LID practices for a broader based plan

TASK 3 Integrated Model Plan – prioritized scenarios – modeling objectives – model selection – model calibration, validation, skill assessment, & uncertainty analysis – model output and analytical approaches

TASK 3 Modeling Strategy – A 10-year hydrodynamic/water quality model run to capture wet, dry, and average years – Able to examine variability in impacts of stressors on optical and habitat models – Water quality model hindcast

Proposed Model Linkages (Question 4) Watershed INTB LIGHT & HABITAT MODELS Rainfall, Landuse, BMPs, etc. Water Quality/SFM RCA HydrographPollutograph Hydro/SedTran ECOMSED Sal, T, H, U x,y,z,E x,y,z V settling, V depo, V resusp Sal, T, H, V shear Chlorophyll, turbidity, DO, CDOM, Sediment %POC, H 2 S, etc. Winds, I solar, Humidity, etc. W WWTP, W atmo, I solar, etc.

TASK 3 Quality Assurance Plan – project organization (stakeholders, etc.,) – project tasks and schedule – project objectives – modeling and data quality objectives – model calibration, validation, and skill assessment methods – model user’s manual – QC protocols

Integrated Northern Tampa Bay Model

ECOMSED Model Grid