Cap and Trade, Climate, and Your House Patrick J. Michaels Distinguished Senior Fellow School of Public Policy George Mason University Senior Fellow Cato Institute

Waxman-Markey 3% below 2005 emissions in % below 2005 by % below 2005 by % below 2005 by 2050

WAXMAN-MARKEY HOUSING STANDARDS 30% more efficient than 2005 in % in 2016 Additional 5% every three years

DO THE MATH By 2049 (38.4 years from today) -- EVERY HOME IS A GENERATOR.

2005 US per capita CO2 emissions POST-2005 VALUES BASED UPON WAXMAN-MARKEY and U.S. Census Bureau projections

U.S. Annual CO2 Emissions

Impacts of Waxman-Markey on Projected Global Temperatures Year °C 1.540°C 1.500°C

Impacts of Waxman-Markey on Projected Global Temperatures Year °C 2.847°C 2.738°C

COST ESTIMATES

(This Page Intentionally Left Blank)

FROM CONGRESS TO EPA

EPA Endangerment Finding (December 7, 2009): “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely* due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG [greenhouse gas] concentrations.” * EPA defines “very likely” as a 90 to 95% probability

“Observed” Global Temperature History, Total Rise Obs. = 0.702°C (sources: HadCRUT3)

“Observed” Global Temperature History, “Adjusted” for SST Errors Total Rise Obs. = 0.702°C Adj. = 0.552°C Adjusted Temperature Rise is 79% of “Observed” (sources: HadCRUT3; Thompson et al., 2008)

“Observed” Global Temperature History, “Adjusted” for SST + Non-climatic Influences Total Rise Obs. = 0.702°C Adj. = 0.468°C Adjusted Temperature Rise is 67% of “Observed” (sources: HadCRUT3; Thompson et al., 2008; McKitrick and Michaels, 2007)

“Observed” Global Temperature History, “Adjusted” for SST + NonClim + Stratos H2O Total Rise Obs. = 0.702°C Adj. = 0.408°C Adjusted Temperature Rise is 58% of “Observed” (sources: HadCRUT3; Thompson et al., 2008; McKitrick and Michaels, 2007; Solomon et al., 2010)

“Observed” Global Temperature History, “Adjusted” for SST + NonClim + Stratos H2O + Black Carbon Total Rise Obs. = 0.702°C Adj. = 0.306°C Adjusted Temperature Rise is 44% of “Observed” (sources: HadCRUT3; Thompson et al., 2008; McKitrick and Michaels, 2007; Solomon et al., 2010; Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2009)

“Observed” Global Temperature History, “Adjusted” for SST + NonClim + Stratos H2O + BC + Sun Total Rise Obs. = 0.702°C Adj. = 0.204°C Adjusted Temperature Rise is 29% of “Observed” (sources: HadCRUT3; Thompson et al., 2008; McKitrick and Michaels, 2007; Solomon et al., 2010; Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2009; Scafetta, 2009)

“Many residents of low-lying Pacific Island nations have already had to evacuate their homes because of rising seas.” HIGH TIDE IN FUNAFUTI, TUVALU POLYNESIA

Steric Sea Level Trends, Region where Tuvalu and many other Pacific Island nations are located. Sea levels have declined there. Source: Cabanes et al., Science, 2001

IPCC AR4 Global Average Sea Level Rise Projections ( relative to )

URGENCY?

IPCC’s 21 Models for Climate Change—Realistic CO 2 Changes

Projected (A1B) and Observed Temperatures Observed Trend Model Projections

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration (Observed and Projected)

ATMOSPHERIC METHANE SOURCES Bovine Flatulence Rice Paddy Agriculture Coal Mining Leaky Pipes?

Atmospheric Methane (Duglokenky 09) IPCC 2001 (same as 2007) Overlay

Methane, (Dlugokenky 09)

Projected (A1B) and Observed Temperatures Observed Trend Model Projections

Global and NH Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (January March 2010) Global ACE Northern Hemisphere ACE