Early Warning Systems Used in Micronesia Chip Guard Weather Forecast Office Guam International Training Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Disaster Reduction Guangzhou, China March 2007

Early Warning Systems Four components of an Early Warning System –Warning Products –Criteria to trigger actions –Communications Systems –Alert Systems

Warning Products Requirements –Timely –Accurate –Comprehendible

Warning Products in Micronesia Types –Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings –Flood/Flash Flood Watches and Warnings –Coastal Flood Warnings –High Surf Advisories and Warnings –High Wind Warnings –Tornado Watches and Warnings –Red Flag Watches and Warnings for Wild Fires –Severe Thunderstorm Watches and Warnings –Special Marine Warnings

Tropical Cyclone Warning Products in Micronesia Types –Tropical Storm and Typhoon Advisories –Typhoon Local Statements –Position Estimates

JTWC Warning

PUBLIC ADVISORY

Tropical Cyclone Warning Products in Micronesia Types –Tropical Storm and Typhoon Advisories –Typhoon Local Statements –Position Estimates

LOCAL STATEMENTS

Tropical Cyclone Warning Products in Micronesia Types –Tropical Storm and Typhoon Advisories –Typhoon Local Statements –Position Estimates

Position Estimates Based on Doppler radar information –Allows quick updates –Supersedes satellite data and JTWC fixes

Position Estimates

Criteria to Trigger Actions We use tropical storm and typhoon watches and warnings –These key the Emergency Managers to take action –These alert the public to listen for instructions The Governments generally set Tropical Storm and Typhoon Conditions of Readiness –These trigger specific actions within the government including instructions for the public

Issuing Watches and Warnings Criteria for issuing a Watch: When damaging winds are possible within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch is issued when a JTWC forecast indicates that a tropical cyclone will be at tropical storm intensity when it passes and damaging winds (39 mph or more) are possible within 48 hours. The tropical cyclone may currently be a tropical storm or a tropical depression that is forecast to intensify.

Issuing Watches and Warnings Criteria for issuing a Watch: When damaging winds are possible within 48 hours. A Typhoon Watch is issued when a JTWC forecast indicates that a tropical cyclone will be at typhoon intensity when it passes and damaging winds (39 mph or more) are possible within 48 hours. The tropical cyclone may currently be a typhoon or a tropical storm that is forecast to intensify.

Issuing Watches and Warnings Criteria for issuing a Warning: When damaging winds are expected within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning is issued when a JTWC forecast indicates that a tropical cyclone will be at tropical storm intensity when it passes and damaging winds (39 mph to 73 mph) are expected within 24 hours. The tropical cyclone may currently be a tropical storm or a tropical depression that is forecast to intensify.

Issuing Watches and Warnings Criteria for issuing a Warning: When damaging winds are expected within 24 hours. A Typhoon Warning is issued when a JTWC forecast indicates that a tropical cyclone will be at typhoon intensity when it passes and damaging winds (39 mph or more) are expected within 24 hours. The tropical cyclone may currently be a typhoon or a tropical storm that is forecast to intensify into a typhoon.

Conditions vs. Watch/Warnings Based on onset of damaging/tropical storm force winds… Condition 4: within 72 hours Condition 3: within 48 hours Condition 2: within 24 hours Condition 1: within 12 hours Watch: within 48 hours Warning: within 24 hours

Communications Requirements –Reliable Must be maintained Must be tested –Wide coverage Goal is to get to the last kilometer—all the people –Easily received On a radio or television or by word of mouth

Communications Types –Internet— –NOAA All-Hazard Weather Radio –Facsimile—a good substitute if Internet not available –Radios CB and HAM HF—Good for remote areas AM/FM—Primary method in Micronesia –Media Radio—We have primarily a radio audience; easy to update Television—Usually recorded for later airing; can be outdated Print—Beware! This information is usually 12 hours old or more

Alert Systems Requirements –Reliable Well maintained Periodically tested –Wide coverage—Goal is to get to the last kilometer—all people –Effective For sirens: People must know what the tones mean Fewer tones will be more effective than many Periodically tested

Alert Systems Types –NOAA All-Hazard Alert Weather Radio Activates alert radios via a 1050 Hz tone Activates Emergency Alert System –Sirens Automatically activated Manually activated –First Responders (police, fire, mayors) Police bull horns Knocks on doors

Questions?