Chapter 23 FISCAL POLICY: COPING WITH INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e © 2013 Cengage Learning 1

Economic Principles © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 2 Frictional, structural, and cyclical unemployment Discouraged and underemployed workers The natural rate of unemployment Winners and losers from inflation

Economic Principles © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 3 Recessionary and inflationary gaps The tax multiplier The balanced budget multiplier Fiscal policy options The business cycle

Fiscal Policy © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 4 Recall that the national economy, if not already in equilibrium, is always moving toward it. But is equilibrium particularly attractive?

Fiscal Policy © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 5 When the economy is in equilibrium, it can sometimes be distressful. Equilibrium tells us nothing about satisfaction or the general state of the economy.

Fiscal Policy © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 6 For example, the economy can be in equilibrium and at the same time still be unable to provide employment to those wanting jobs.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 7 In order to define full employment, we need to look at the reasons why people may not have jobs.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 8 Frictional unemployment Relatively brief periods of unemployment caused by people deciding to voluntarily quit work in order to seek more attractive employment.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 9 Frictional unemployment Initial job hunting or job switching for improvement is seldom smooth or instantaneous, but quite natural in a dynamic economy.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 10 Structural unemployment Unemployment that results from fundamental technological changes in production, or from the substitution of new goods for customary ones.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 11 The impact of structural unemployment falls particularly hard on older workers. They are the ones that acquired years of on-the-job experience to match a specific technology. It is difficult for them to start over again.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 12 If people are to enjoy the benefits that advanced technology affords, then the pain of structural unemployment has to be paid.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 13 Cyclical unemployment Unemployment associated with the downturn and recession phases of the business cycle.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 14 Discouraged workers Unemployed people who give up looking for work after experiencing persistent rejection in their attempts to find work.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 15 Many discouraged workers end up in a nonwork culture and remain permanently separated from the productive society.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 16 Underemployed workers Workers employed in jobs that do not utilize their productive talents or experience.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 17 In periods of recession, the number of people who end up as discouraged workers or among the underemployed workers can be rather significant.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 18 The unemployment rate for an economy depends on decisions about who belongs in the unemployment pool.

Counterfeit Unemployment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 19 Not everybody who’s unemployed is really unemployed. There are people who opt out of employment using any number of excuses. There are those who cannot hold on to a job.

© 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 20 EXHIBIT 1NUMBER OF WORKERS AND TYPES OF UNEMPLOYMENT

Exhibit 1: Number of Workers and Types of Unemployment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 21 1.What is the unemployment rate in Exhibit 1 if only people affected by frictional, structural, and cyclical unemployment are considered “unemployed”? Unemployment rate = [( ) /10,250] × 100 = 8.3 percent

Exhibit 1: Number of Workers and Types of Unemployment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 22 2.What is the unemployment rate if discouraged workers and underemployed workers are also considered “unemployed”? Unemployment rate = [( )/10,250] × 100 = 13.7 percent

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 23 The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Labor Department conducts a monthly, nationwide employment survey of 60,000 households.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 24 The critical questions asked is: Are you presently gainfully employed or actively seeking employment?

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 25 Labor force People who are gainfully employed or actively seeking employment.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 26 People who are neither gainfully employed nor looking for work, such as children, retirees, students, and the institutionalized, are neither unemployed nor a part of the labor force, according to the BLS.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 27 Underemployed workers, according to the BLS, are counted as employed and part of the labor force. Discouraged workers are not considered unemployed, because they are not actively seeking employment.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 28 Natural rate of unemployment The rate of unemployment caused by frictional plus structural unemployment in the economy.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 29 Full employment An employment level at which the actual rate of unemployment in the economy is equal to the economy’s natural rate of unemployment.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 30 The economy is considered to be at full employment when the rate of cyclical unemployment is zero.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 31 Recall the three segments of the aggregate supply curve. The first segment is horizontal—real GDP can increase without an increase in the price level because there is a ready pool of unemployed workers to draw upon at current wage rates.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 32 The second segment is upward sloping. Real GDP increases, but only if producers offer higher wage rates to induce more people into the labor force. The price level rises.

Equilibrium and Full Employment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 33 The third segment is vertical. Everyone who is capable of working at any wage rate is working. No further increases in the price level can generate more real GDP. If the aggregate demand curve shifts upward, real GDP remains the same but the price level increases.

© 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 34 EXHIBIT 2THE FULL-EMPLOYMENT LEVEL OF THE AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE AND THE EFFECTS OF AN INCREASE IN AGGREGATE DEMAND

Exhibit 2: The Full-Employment Level of the Aggregate Supply Curve and the Effects of an Increase in Aggregate Demand © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 35 1.At what level of real GDP is full employment realized in Exhibit 2? Full employment is realized when real GDP equals $1,200 billion.

Exhibit 2: The Full-Employment Level of the Aggregate Supply Curve and the Effects of an Increase in Aggregate Demand © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 36 2.What happens to the price level when aggregate demand shifts from AD 1 to AD 2 in panel b ? The price level increases from P = 110 to P = 120.

Understanding Inflation © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 37 Inflation redistributes income. Some people win and some people lose from the redistribution.

Understanding Inflation © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 38 Perhaps more than any other group, people living on fixed incomes have reason to worry about inflation. Losers may also include landlords whose incomes are tied to long-term rental leases and workers who accepted union- negotiated, multiyear, fixed-wage contracts.

Understanding Inflation © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 39 People who borrow money end up winners under inflation if the interest rate a borrower pays on the borrowed funds is less than the rate of inflation.

Understanding Inflation © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 40 For example, suppose you borrowed $100 at 5 percent interest to buy a pair of shoes. At the end of the loan period, you repay the bank $105. Had you waited until this year to buy the shoes, with inflation at 10 percent, it would have cost you $110.

Understanding Inflation © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 41 The government, as the largest single borrower, benefits from inflation. Inflation, with time, reduces the real cost to government of carrying the national debt. In addition, inflation may bump more citizens into higher tax brackets, resulting in higher income taxes paid to the government.

Understanding Inflation © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 42 Inflationary risks are shifted when banks tie mortgage rates to the rate of inflation, union contracts include provisions for a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) tied to inflation, and when the federal government adjusts income tax brackets based on inflation.

Living in a World of Inflation and Unemployment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 43 Recall that national income equilibrium may not occur at full employment. In such an equilibrium, some unemployed people may fail to find employment, no matter how hard they try.

Living in a World of Inflation and Unemployment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 44 Recessionary gap The amount by which aggregate expenditure falls short of the level needed to generate equilibrium national income at full employment without inflation.

Living in a World of Inflation and Unemployment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 45 Inflationary gap The amount by which aggregate expenditure exceeds the aggregate expenditure level needed to generate equilibrium national income at full employment without inflation.

Living in a World of Inflation and Unemployment © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 46 The amount by which aggregate expenditure needs to increase or decrease depends primarily on the marginal propensity to consume.

© 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 47 EXHIBIT 3ARECESSIONARY AND INFLATIONARY GAPS

© 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 48 EXHIBIT 3BRECESSIONARY AND INFLATIONARY GAPS

Exhibit 3: Recessionary and Inflationary Gaps © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 49 What two points define the recessionary gap in panel a of Exhibit 3? The recessionary gap is defined by points hg.

Closing Recessionary and Inflationary Gaps © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 50 When an economy is at equilibrium, there is no justification for producers to increase investment spending—even if it would reduce unemployment.

Closing Recessionary and Inflationary Gaps © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 51 Government, however, can design public investment projects to close the recessionary gap. Superhighways, public housing, space programs and defense are all projects that could be initiated to absorb the investment funds.

Closing Recessionary and Inflationary Gaps © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 52 There are problems with closing a recessionary gap, however. First, once the funds are invested, they tend to continue to be invested year after year—whether or not they are needed to close a recessionary gap.

Closing Recessionary and Inflationary Gaps © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 53 Second, some economists believe that the advocates of government intervention fail to appreciate the self- correcting nature of the economy.

Closing Recessionary and Inflationary Gaps © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 54 Third, the funds must come from somewhere. Debt financing places burdens on the future economy.

Closing Recessionary and Inflationary Gaps © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 55 The inflationary gap can also be closed. Private sector investment and government funding can both be cut to close the gap.

Making Fiscal Policy © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 56 In order to raise funds to close the recessionary gap, the government can either raise taxes or borrow money. The government borrows money by issuing interest-bearing IOUs.

Making Fiscal Policy © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 57 Fiscal policy Government spending and taxation policy to achieve macroeconomic goals of full employment without inflation.

Making Fiscal Policy © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 58 Balanced budget Government spending equals tax revenue. The equation is written: G = T where G = government spending and T = tax revenue.

Making Fiscal Policy © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 59 In order to come up with the money to pay increased income taxes, people must consume less and save more. Their reduced consumption spending does not cancel out the positive effect of the increased government spending, however.

Making Fiscal Policy © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 60 Tax multiplier The multiple by which the equilibrium level of national income changes when a dollar change in taxes occurs. The multiple depends upon the marginal propensity to consume.

Making Fiscal Policy © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 61 Tax multiplier The equation for the tax multiplier is: – MPC /(1 – MPC )

Making Fiscal Policy © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 62 Like the income multiplier, the tax multiplier magnifies the effect of taxes on the level of national income. But income magnification from taxes is the weaker of the two.

Making Fiscal Policy © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 63 The reason why the tax multiplier is weaker is because not all of the income required to pay the tax comes from people’s consumption spending. Part comes from would-be savings.

Making Fiscal Policy © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 64 For example, suppose the government imposes a 20 percent income tax. An individual earning $50,000 per year would owe $10,000. If MPC = 0.80, then $8,000 of the tax will be cut from consumption spending and $2,000 of the tax will come from would-be savings.

Making Fiscal Policy © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 65 The tax multiplying factor, when MPC = 0.80, is: –0.80/(1 – 0.80) = –4 The $10,000 tax generates a $40,000 decline in national income.

Making Fiscal Policy © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 66 Government doesn’t save. It takes the $10,000 generated through taxes and spends the entire amount. The income multiplier is: 1/(1 – 0.80) = 5 The increase in national income generated by the $10,000 tax is $50,000.

Making Fiscal Policy © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 67 Balanced budget multiplier The effects on the equilibrium level of national income of an equal change in government spending and taxes. The balanced budget multiplier is 1.

Making Fiscal Policy © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 68 Budget deficit Government spending exceeds tax revenues.

© 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 69 EXHIBIT 4SAMPLE BUDGET OPTIONS TO CLOSE A RECESSIONARY GAP ($ BILLIONS)

Exhibit 4: Sample Budget Options to Close a Recessionary Gap © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 70 What might be a problem with Option 1, the balanced budget option, in Exhibit 4? The option would require the entire recessionary gap to be made up by income taxes. This option may be politically unpopular.

Exhibit 4: Sample Budget Options to Close a Recessionary Gap © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 71 What might be a problem with Option 1, the balanced budget option, in Exhibit 4? In addition, government becomes a major participant in the national economy. A hot political issue is: How much government is the right amount of government?

Making Fiscal Policy © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 72 Budget surplus Tax revenues exceed government spending.

© 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 73 EXHIBIT 5SAMPLE BUDGET OPTIONS TO CLOSE AN INFLATIONARY GAP ($ billions)

Exhibit 5: Sample Budget Options to Close an Inflationary Gap © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 74 What might be some problems associated with Option 1 in Exhibit 5? While people would love to see their taxes cut substantially, the associated drastic cut in government spending would be unworkable.

Exhibit 5: Sample Budget Options to Close an Inflationary Gap © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 75 What might be some problems associated with Option 1 in Exhibit 5? It would mean too many cuts in necessary public programs such as Medicare, funding for higher education, and highway repair.

Countercyclical Fiscal Policy © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 76 Because the economy’s performance itself is always in a constant state of motion. The economy’s deviations trace a series of recurring cycles, with years of rapid economic growth followed by economic decline. Why is locking on a stationary target of national income equilibrium seem pointless?

Countercyclical Fiscal Policy © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 77 Countercyclical fiscal policy Fiscal policy designed to moderate the severity of the business cycle by introducing ever-changing fiscal policy prescriptions in order to temper the always recurring cycles.

The Business Cycle © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 78 The business cycle represents year to year deviations from the dominant, long-run path of U.S. economic growth. These deviations seem to map out a picture of recurring cycles.

The Business Cycle © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 79 What causes cycles in the first place? External, random events, such as wars, population booms, housing starts, clustering of innovations, and tech-stock or credit bubbles. Other cycles are internal, that is, self- generating by and within the economy.

© 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 80 EXHIBIT 7THE U.S. BUSINESS CYCLE RECORD: 1860–2003 The year-to-year change in GDP is depicted as percentage deviations from the long-term trend growth rate. Sharp upturns are clearly marked by the Civil War, World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War. The Great Depression of the 1930s and the sharp economic recovery following World War II dominate the picture. Source: Ameritrust Company, Cleveland, Ohio and Economic Report, The President, 2006.

Exhibit 7: The U.S. Business Cycle Record: 1860–2003 © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 81 1.According to Exhibit 7, were recessions more frequent before World War II or after World War II? Recessions were more frequent before World War II.

Exhibit 7: The U.S. Business Cycle Record: 1860–1990 © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 82 2.In which of the following decades was there the greatest period of rapid and prolonged economic growth in Exhibit 7? a.1870–1880 b.1930–1940 c.1960–1970

Exhibit 7: The U.S. Business Cycle Record: 1860–1990 © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 83 2.In which of the following decades was there the greatest period of rapid and prolonged economic growth in Exhibit 7? a.1870–1880 b.1930–1940 c.1960–1970

Bubbles and Cycles © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 84 How does a bubble form? When many investors invest in new technology, innovation, product, and the like based on the excitement it elicits in the market. The result is skyrocketing product and stock prices even when totally at variance with market fundamentals.

Bubbles and Cycles © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 85 How do bubbles burst? When excitement and market expectation dampen, investors get out of the market in the belief that their investment will lose value. That thinking alone brings on the expected collapse.

Multiplier and Accelerator Cycle © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 86 The interaction of the multiplier and accelerator alone can induce cycles. This interaction causes changes in investment and in national income that become mutually reinforcing.

Multiplier and Accelerator Cycle © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 87 A change in investment generates, via the multiplier, a change in national income that induces, via the accelerator, a higher level of investment that generates, via the multiplier, yet another change in national income, and so on..

Multiplier and Accelerator Cycle © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 88 Accelerator The relationship between the level of investment and the change in the level of national income.

Real Business Cycle Theory © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 89 Economists who subscribe to real business cycle theory challenge the idea that internal or external cycles exist.

Real Business Cycle Theory © 2013 Cengage Learning Gottheil — Principles of Economics, 7e 90 They argue that the economy is dynamic and operates near full employment. The principal factor shaping the unevenness (not cycles) in the economy’s growth path is the random occurrence of many small productivity-enhancing innovations.