Economics of CBPP control in Kenya Dr Joshua Onono A presentation made at Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria: 3 rd / April/ /06/2016

Outline Introduction Economic analysis framework a.Partial budget b.Decision tree c.Impact assessment Policy analysis framework Conclusion 204/06/2016

Introduction CBPP is an infectious disease of cattle which has a huge impact on the society. CBPP is caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subspecies mycoides Small Colony variant (MmmSC). The organism produces natural infection in cattle and water buffaloes (Bubalu babulus), but not in wild buffaloes (Syncerus caffer). CBPP is widespread in Africa and it is recognized to be present in some countries of Asia and Europe. 304/06/2016

Introduction In Africa, it is found in an area south of the Sahara, from the Tropic of Cancer to Tropic of Capricorn and from Atlantic to the Indian Ocean. Endemic infection extends throughout the pastoral herds of much of western, central and eastern Africa, with Angola and northern Namibia in southern Africa. 404/06/2016

Introduction Fig. 1: Clinical and pathological signs for CBPP (Niang et al. 2010; Twinamasiko, 2002) 504/06/2016

Economic analysis framework Costs Benefits New Costs  Treatment of clinical cases  Preventive annual vaccinations  Cost of feed and management Costs Saved  Slaughter fee per head  Market prices for cattle Forgone Revenue  Salvage value for meat, hides and skins from culled cows  Reduced alternative income and social activities New Revenue  Extra cows  Extra milk production  Extra calves born  Extra meat (weight gain) Fig. 2: Partial budgeting framework 604/06/2016

Economic analysis framework Fig. 3: Estimation of output losses in herds due to CBPP 704/06/2016

Economic analysis framework Fig. 4: Estimation for direct cost of control interventions for CBPP 804/06/2016

Results of partial budget analysis Fig. 5: Comparison of annual costs and benefits from various CBPP control options in a herd of 100 cows (Onono, 2013) 904/06/2016

10 Fig.6: Regression coefficients between net benefits ($) per herd/year and the parameters under treatment strategy

04/06/ Fig.7: Regression coefficients between net benefits ($) per herd/year and the parameters under vaccination strategy

Economic analysis framework Fig.8: Decision tree analysis framework 1204/06/2016

Results of decision tree analysis (Onono, 2013) 1304/06/2016 Fig.9: Results of decision tree analysis

Fig 10: Sensitivity analysis for EMV (US$) of net benefits with increasing probability of CBPP outbreak (Onono, 2013) 1404/06/2016

Economic analysis framework Fig. 11: CBPP impact assessment 1504/06/2016

Fig. 12: Results on estimated impact of CBPP on pastoralists (Onono et al. 2014) 1604/06/2016

Fig. 13: Problem tree analysis for delivery of CBPP control technologies (Onono, 2013) 88% 12% 0% 1704/06/2016

Conclusions Slaughter of clinical cases of CBPP is not beneficial to pastoralists Treatment of clinical cases, annual vaccination and a combination of these two strategies have benefits to pastoralists Vaccination services against CBPP can be delivered through signed contractual agreements between private and public veterinary departments 1804/06/2016