Defining the present climate: Why does it matter? What help exists? Pandora Hope (BMRC) and Ian Foster (DAWA) Acknowledgements: Colin Terry (Water Corp),

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Presentation transcript:

Defining the present climate: Why does it matter? What help exists? Pandora Hope (BMRC) and Ian Foster (DAWA) Acknowledgements: Colin Terry (Water Corp), Andrew Watkins (NCC), Jay Lawrimore (NCDC), Lynda Chambers (BMRC), Peter Powers (BMRC)

Outline ‘Standard’ meteorological climatology Observed Trends and Breakpoints Examples of the issues and responses in various sectors Available help

Defining the present climate

Defining the present climate

Trends – A reason to change the ‘baseline’ definition? Combined global land-surface air and sea surface temperatures (degrees Centigrade) 1861 to 1998, relative to 1961 to1990; University of East Anglia, UK

National Climatic Data Center l

National Climate Centre, Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Annual Temperature SWWA Created using “Diagnose”

Summer Temperature SWWA

Early Winter Temperature SWWA

National Climate Centre, Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Seasonality of SWWA Rainfall Decrease

Early Winter SWWA Rainfall Break-point in time series at 1968/69 NB: IOCI in general uses a breakpoint of 1975/76, which is the breakpoint of the sea-level pressure data in the region

Changes to the ‘baseline’ WMO suggested , but this was not adopted Some agencies are using the full period, e.g. NCDC uses Many sectors use the time-period most relevant to their purpose

Major System Impacts Integrated water supply scheme – source development plan 2001 had 2nd worst inflow to Perth dams 8 year sequence of lowered streamflow to 2005

Changes to Streamflow Probability 177 GL is the mean over

Response of Water Corp. Major desalination of seawater Recycling of treated wastewater Better management of dam catchments to improve inflows Trading for water from irrigation cooperatives

Salt risk and land-use NB: This is an example only. The data is from station data interpolated onto a grid (Jones and Weymouth 1997). There will be differences from maps produced using other methods of interpolation < 900 mm mm > 1100 mm mm Forestry, Mining Isohyet limits from Colin Terry, maps plotted using NCC gridded rainfall data by Pandora Hope

System Response - Waterlogging Frequency

Wheat Yield Trend Source: ABS state averages

Agricultural Responses Fewer very wet years may have affected rates of salinity spread Sowing opportunities tend to occur later Decreased waterlogging in susceptible areas. This may have improved conditions for cropping in higher rainfall areas Technology changes have improved productivity despite generally drier years

Tools available Australian Rainman (QDNR, BoM et al) DIAGNOSE; CD or website (v. large): ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/bmrc/perm/append/install_v3/ MetAccess (CSIRO et al) Climate Calculator – Dept Ag Future projections – IOCI, CSIRO

Conclusions There have been strong trends in rainfall in Western Australia, causing sectors to re- examine the climate ‘baseline’ Impacts have been strong in some sectors, and variable in others There is a range of tools that can help define climatology, opportunities and risks.

Climate Calculator – DAWA Risk Charts

Agriculture - Altered rainfall pattern