Future climate change drives increases in forest fires and summertime Organic Carbon Aerosol concentrations in the Western U.S. Dominick Spracklen, Jennifer.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Forecasting fine particulate matter (PM2.5) across the United States in a changing climate Loretta J. Mickley Wildfires in Quebec the same day. Haze over.

Advertisements

Wildfire in the western United States in the mid-21st century and consequences for air quality: Results from an ensemble of climate model projections.

Investigation of chemistry-climate interactions, with a closer look at the U.S. warming hole Loretta J. Mickley Eric Leibensperger, Xu Yue, Daniel Jacob,

Overview of GCAP Project October 12, 2007 Harvard University PI: Jacob Co-Is: Byun, Fu, Mickley, Seinfeld, Streets, Rind Also: Wu, Liao, Lam, Li, Yoshitomi,

Global Change and Air Pollution (EPA-STAR GCAP) …and some more recent work on climate-AQ interactions Daniel J. Jacob with Eric.

A statistical method for calculating the impact of climate change on future air quality over the Northeast United States. Collaborators: Cynthia Lin, Katharine.

QUESTIONS 1.Is hexane more or less reactive with OH than propane? 2.Is pentene or isoprene more reactive with OH?

FIRE AND BIOFUEL CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNUAL MEAN AEROSOL MASS CONCENTRATIONS IN THE UNITED STATES ROKJIN J. PARK, DANIEL J. JACOB, JENNIFER A. LOGAN AGU FALL.

Relevance of climate change to air quality policy Daniel J. Jacob with Kevin J. Wecht, Eric M. Leibensperger, Amos P.K. Tai, Loretta J. Mickley and funding.

U. Shankar 1, D. McKenzie 2, J. Bowden 1 and L. Ran 1 Assessing the Impacts on Smoke, Fire and Air Quality Due to Changes in Climate, Fuel Loads, and Wildfire.

Wildland Fire Today and in the Coming Decades: What Might We Expect? Scott Stephens ESPM - Division of Forest Science University of California, Berkeley.

Climate change, fires, and carbon aerosol over N. America with preliminary detour to discuss GCAP model development (GCAP= Global change and air pollution)

Chemistry-climate interactions: a new direction for GEOS-CHEM GEOS-CHEM research to date GCAP project Current project: drive GEOS-CHEM into.

Interannual variations in global OH radicals over the period in GEOS-Chem, and preliminary comparisons to other models I. Bey 1, S. Koumoutsaris.

Eric M. Leibensperger, Loretta J. Mickley, Daniel J. Jacob School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University Climate response to changing.

THE IMPACTS OF TRANS-BOUNDARY TRANSPORT OF AEROSOLS ON THE REGIONAL AIR QUALITY: A case study of Mexican wildland fire on May 1998 Hee-Jin In 1, Daewon.

Rynda Hudman 1,2, Dominick Spracklen 1,3, Jennifer Logan3 Loretta J

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST FIRES OVER NORTH AMERICA AND IMPACT ON U.S. OZONE AIR QUALITY Rynda Hudman 1,2, Dominick Spracklen 1,3, Jennifer Logan.

OCTOBER 2003 PROGRESS REPORT ICAP Phase 2 Harvard University Daniel J. Jacob (P.I.), Rokjin J. Park, Noelle Eckley, and Loretta J. Mickley November 7,

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST FIRES OVER NORTH AMERICA AND IMPACT ON U.S. OZONE AIR QUALITY AND VISIBILITY UC BERKELEY GEOGRAPHY SEMINAR DECEMBER.

Effects of Siberian forest fires on regional air quality and meteorology in May 2003 Rokjin J. Park with Daeok Youn, Jaein Jeong, Byung-Kwon Moon Seoul.

California burns. Santa Ana Winds Conditions for Santa Ana Winds High pressure over Great Basin region –Why its clear and warm here in Boulder Warm.

Effects of climate change on future wildfire and its impact on regional air quality Hyun Cheol Kim, Dae-Gyun Lee, and Daewon Byun 1 Institute for Multidimensional.

Protecting our Health from Climate Change: a Training Course for Public Health Professionals Chapter 2: Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate.

Impact of climate change on PM 2.5 air quality inferred from a multi-model analysis of meteorological modes Loretta J. Mickley Co-Is: Amos P.K.A.

Studies of chemistry-climate interactions at Harvard Loretta J. Mickley, Harvard University also Shiliang Wu, Jennifer Logan, Dominick Spracklen, Amos.

NATURAL AND TRANSBOUNDARY INFLUENCES ON PARTICULATE MATTER IN THE UNITED STATES: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EPA REGIONAL HAZE RULE Rokjin J. Park ACCESS VII,

GLOBAL CHANGE AND AIR POLLUTION (GCAP): Daniel J. Jacob (P.I.) and Loretta J. Mickley, Harvard John H. Seinfeld, Caltech David Rind, NASA/GISS Joshua Fu,

National Climatic Data Center NCDC "State of the climate" search/2008/ann/bams/.pdf and.ppt.

Joshua Fu, Yun-Fat Lam* and Yang Gao University of Tennessee Daniel Jacob, Loretta Mickley and Shiliang Wu Harvard University Oct 20, 2009 The effects.

Interactions of climate change and air quality Daniel J. Jacob.

Contribution from Natural Sources of Aerosol Particles to PM in Canada Sunling Gong Scientific Team: Tianliang Zhao, David Lavoue, Richard Leaitch,

Changes and Feedbacks of Land-use and Land-cover under Global Change Mingjie Shi Physical Climatology Course, 387H The University of Texas at Austin, Austin,

INTERACTIONS OF AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE Daniel J. Jacob How do air pollutants contribute to climate change? How will climate change affect air.

1 Investigating Links between Atmospheric Chemistry, Climate, and the Biosphere Loretta J. Mickley, 4 November with Amos Tai, Lee Murray, Xu Yue,

Air Quality and Climate Change Co-authors: Amos Tai, Eric Leibensperger, and Xu Yue, Daniel Jacob, Jennifer Logan What U.S. city is this? Loretta Mickley.

Improved representation of boreal fire emissions for the ICARTT period S. Turquety, D. J. Jacob, J. A. Logan, R. M. Yevich, R. C. Hudman, F. Y. Leung,

Fire climate interactions on the American Pacific Coast ACRE workshop Meteoswiss, June Valérie Trouet A.H. Taylor, A.M. Carleton, C.N. Skinner.

Projecting future changes in U.S. forest fuel and fire conditions using NARCCAP regional climate change scenarios Yongqiang Liu Center for Forest Disturbance.

Investigation of the U.S. warming hole and other adventures in chemistry-climate interactions Loretta J. Mickley Pattanun Achakulwisut, Becky Alexander,

Thanks to David Diner, David Nelson and Yang Chen (JPL) and Ralph Kahn (NASA/Goddard) Research funded by NSF and EPA Overview of the 2002 North American.

Projecting future changes in U.S. forest fuel and fire conditions using NARCCAP regional climate change scenarios Yongqiang Liu Center for Forest Disturbance.

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Future Wildfire Activity over the Southeast U.S. using Dynamical Downscaling Jared H. Bowden Kevin D. Talgo Uma.

Effects of climate change on forest fires over North America and impact on U.S. air quality and visibility Rynda Hudman, Dominick Spracklen, Jennifer Logan,

Chemistry-climate working group Co-chairs: Hong Liao, Shiliang Wu The 7th International GEOS-Chem Meeting (IGC7)

NATURAL AND TRANSBOUNDARY POLLUTION INFLUENCES ON AEROSOL CONCENTRATIONS AND VISIBILITY DEGRADATION IN THE UNITED STATES Rokjin J. Park, Daniel J. Jacob,

OVERVIEW OF ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES: Daniel J. Jacob Ozone and particulate matter (PM) with a global change perspective.

Pollutant Emissions from Large Wildfires in the Western United States Shawn P. Urbanski, Matt C. Reeves, W. M. Hao US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research.

Loretta J. Mickley, Harvard University Shiliang Wu, Eric Liebensperger, Moeko Yoshitomi, Dominick Spracklen, Brendan Field Daniel Jacob, David Rind, Cynthia.

EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON U.S. AIR QUALITY Daniel J. Jacob, Harvard University Global change in emissions Change in U.S. air quality Change in climate.

Diagnosing the sensitivity of O 3 air quality to climate change over the United States Moeko Yoshitomi Daniel J. Jacob, Loretta.

Simulating global fire regimes & biomass burning with vegetation-fire models Kirsten Thonicke 1, Allan Spessa 2 & I. Colin Prentice

Impact of the changes of prescribed fire emissions on regional air quality from 2002 to 2050 in the southeastern United States Tao Zeng 1,3, Yuhang Wang.

Investigation of the Effects of Changing Climate on Fires and the Consequences for U.S. Air Quality, Using a Hierarchy of Chemistry and Climate Models.

Importance of chemistry-climate interactions in projections of future air quality Loretta J. Mickley Lu Shen, Daniel H. Cusworth, Xu Yue Earth system models.

Recent and predicted changes in atmospheric composition over the United States from climate, emissions and bark beetles Fall AGU Meeting December 6, 2012.

GCAP (Global Climate and Air Pollution): One of six projects funded by EPA-STAR to study effect of climate change on air quality. Collaborators: Harvard.

Interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry in the US Loretta J. Mickley, Harvard University Collaborators: Rynda Hudman, Daniel Jacob, Eric.

Climate Change Impacts on Regional Air Quality Loretta Mickley and co-workers: Shiliang Wu, Eric Liebensperger, Dominick Spracklen, Cynthia Lin, Daniel.

BACKGROUND AEROSOL IN THE UNITED STATES: NATURAL SOURCES AND TRANSBOUNDARY POLLUTION Daniel J. Jacob and Rokjin J. Park with support from EPRI, EPA/OAQPS.

Climate-Air Quality: Linkages and OAQPS Strategy National Tribal Forum April 2007.

Using Linked Global and Regional Models to Simulate U.S. Air Quality in the Year 2050 Chris Nolte, Alice Gilliland Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division,

Fire Behavior and Climate Change

Can global models reproduce the current increase in western US wildfires and project a reliable future trend? Dominique Bachelet, Conservation Biology.

The Climate Change – Urban Pollution Relationship

Global atmospheric changes and future impacts on regional air quality

AIR POLLUTION AND GLOBAL CHANGE: TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED POLICY

The Human Influence on Climate: How much is known, What’s in store for us? Loretta Mickley Harvard University CO2 concentrations, Mauna Loa.

The Climate Change – Urban Pollution Relationship

Contribution from Natural Sources of Aerosol Particles to PM in Canada

Presentation transcript:

Future climate change drives increases in forest fires and summertime Organic Carbon Aerosol concentrations in the Western U.S. Dominick Spracklen, Jennifer Logan, Loretta Mickley, Rokjin Park Shiliang Wu, Rose Yevich Mike Flannigan, Tony Westerling, Dan Jaffe

Boreal wildfire and climate OC / BC aerosols GHGs CO Increasing Temperature Increasing Rainfall Air Quality Visibility Climate Change Longer fire seasons, more fires…. Less fires…..

Climate change and Forest Fires [Gillet et al., 2004] Climate impact on fire may be complex and vary regionally due to changes in temperature and precipitation [Flannigan et al., 2005] Area burned and temperature in Canada Predicted ratio of area burned in 3 X CO 2 compared to pre- industrial CO 2

Historical Wildfire Records in Western US Westerling et al Westerling et al Frequency of large fires Large increase in wildfires after the mid 1980s. Biogenic OC Wildfire OC Emissions of OC Large interannual variability in wildfire emissions. How does this impact atmospheric OC? Large Fire Years

Observations (IMPROVE) GEOS-chem Global CTM OC concentration / μg m OC biob emission / Tg OC concentration / μg m -3 IMPROVE GEOS-chem Jun-Aug mean at IMPROVE sites W of 100 o W Impact of variability of fires on atmospheric OC Interannual variability in summertime OC concentrations driven by wildfires. GEOS-chem Climatological fires

Predicting climate change impacts on forest fires and Air Quality Calculate emissions archive met fields GEOS-CHEM Global chemistry model CMAQ Regional chemistry model GISS general circulation model Spin-up MM5 Mesoscale model archive chemistry archive met fields changing greenhouse gases (A1 scenario) Predict Area Burned Area Burned Regressions

Daily forest moisture parameters Area burned database (1 o x 1 o ) Aggregate area burned to ecosystem Canadian Fire Weather Index System Predictors of Area Burned Linear stepwise regression Observed daily Temperature, Wind speed, Rainfall, RH Predicting forest fire area burned Stepwise linear regression between meteorological/forest moisture variables & area burned [Flannigan et al. 2005]

Aggregated ecosystems (similar vegetation / climate) – 2004 Totals [Westerling et al., 2002] Area Burned / 10 6 acres Biomass consumed/ Tg Pacific North West and Rocky Mountain Forests are most important for biomass consumption and regional air quality Bailey (1994) classification

Pacific Northwest/Cascade Forests. Annual Area Burned Observed Area Burned Predicted Area Burned Regression against linear area burned May-Oct mean TemperatureMay-Oct mean Drought Code Regressions ‘explains’ 50-57% of variability in annual area burned in forest ecosystems. Best predictors are often Temperature or Fuel Moisture Index. R 2 =52% Area burned / 10 6 Ha

Trends in GISS western US mean July Met variables 1995 CO 2 A1 Scenario CO 2 GISS GCM predicts ~1.8 K increase in western US July mean temperature by How does this impact wildfires? Temperature / o C Rainfall / mm day -1

Observed Predicted Annual area burned All ecosystems show an increase in Area Burned of between 7 and 87% driven by increasing temperature. +49% +87% AB compared to

Annual total W. US Forest Fire Biomass Consumption Observed Predicted Predicted mean biomass consumption for is 50% greater than during mean / Tg yr -1 Observed Predicted Use stochastic placement of wildfires within ecosystem and ecosystem specific fuel loads. +50%

Predicted Organic Carbon concentrations in W. US for A1 scenario CO Jun-Aug mean at IMPROVE sites +20% Summertime OC in predicted to increase by 20-25%. Implications for visibility. Mean summertime visibility degrades from ~13.2dv ( ) to ~13.8dv ( ). OC concentration / μg m -3 But need longer model runs….

Conclusions In western US interannual variability in summertime OC is driven by variabilty in fires. Increased fires in western US since the mid 1980s has likely caused increase in summertime OC concentrations. Regressions of annual area burned in western US capture 50-57% of interannual variablity. Temperature and fuel moisture are best predictors. Using GISS GCM output, forest fire emissions of OC predicted to increase by 50% by (over ) resulting in mean summertime OC to increase by 20-25%.