Public Opinion

What is Public Opinion? It’s hard to find out what the public opinion is. The way something is worded or the order that choices are presented change people’s minds. Americans don’t want to spend time thinking about political matters.

Family Effect on Party Affiliation Most children throughout their high school days follow their parent’s party and identify with it. Once children enter college, they become more independent, developing their own opinions on political issues. Sometimes differing from their parents.

Family Effect on Party Affiliation Studies show that the more parents discuss political topics around the dinner table, the better informed the children are on political viewpoints.

Religious Effect on Party Affiliation Many religious minorities (Catholics, Jews, etc.) align with one party automatically. This all depends on the social status of this group at this time. For example, if Jews are poor and subject of discrimination, they will align with the party that is fighting against that.

Religious Effect on Party Affiliation If a religious group has certain views about a topic, then they will align with whichever party agrees with their views. This is called religious tradition.

Political Ideology Political ideology is a coherent set of political rules for explaining how the world works and prescribing how it ought to work. 2 ways to measure how much political ideology people have: – They see how frequently people use broad political categories to describe their own views or to justify their preferences for various candidates and policies.

Political Ideology – One can also use a simple mathematic procedure. The higher the accuracy, the more we say a person’s political opinions display “constraint”, or ideology.

Consistent Attitudes People can have an ideology without using the terms liberal and conservative. People tend to have “inconsistent” opinions. –Example-wanting government to spend money on education and environment, but also wanting a bigger military budget with a tough posture towards unfriendly nations.

What do Liberalism and Conservatism mean? The definition of these words has change. –A liberal was once a person who favored personal freedom and liberty, But now has changed to describe Franklin Roosevelt's political campaign. –A conservative was once a person who opposed the French Revolution, and personal freedom, but favored the restoration of the state, church, and aristocracy. It’s now described as an opponent of an activists national government.

Various Categories There are three categories - these were found by analyzing answers people gave to questions about political issues. –1 st - questions about government policy with regard to economy. –2 nd - questions about civil rights and race relations. –3 rd - questions about public and political conduct.

Analyzing Consistency Using two sets of views, economic policy and personal conduct, there are four combinations. –Pure liberal- liberal an economic and personal.1994 about 17% of population were pure liberals. –Pure conservative- conservative on economic matters and conduct issues.1994 about 28% of population were pure conservatives.

Analyzing Consistency –Libertarians-conservative on economic matters and liberal on social matters.1994 about 21% of population were libertarians.Traits:young, college education, white, higher incomes, no religion, live in West. –Populists- liberal on economic matters and conservative on social ones.1994 about 24% of population were populists.Traits:older, poorly educated, lower incomes, religious,female, live in South of Midwest.

Political Elites Activists - often referred to political elite. Reasons for greater consistency: 1.Information-the more informed people are about politics and the more interest they have in them, the more likely they are to have consistent views. 2.Peers-The more active you are in politics the more you associate with others. You spend more time with the people who agree you and some of your views will shift to match theirs. 3. What people tend to be activists?

Liberal vs Conservative What is meant by ideology? Liberals describe themselves as “committed”, “caring,” and “progressive” Conservatives describe themselves as “mainstream”, “moderate,” and “responsible” Liberals characterize conservatives as “right- wing”, “reactionary,” and “extremist” Conservatives characterize liberals as “left-wing”, “Bleeding-heart,” “crackpot”

Characterizations During the Clinton impeachment proceedings, Hillary Clinton blamed a “vast-right-wing conspiracy” Democrats are tarred as a “cut and run” party” because of their views on Iraq

Is There A New Class? The middle class has been split in two. –“Traditional middle class”-gone to college but not graduated, live in suburbs, go to church, disposed toward business, conservative on social issues, Republican. –“New class”(liberal middle class)-postgraduate education, live in or near big cities, critical on business, liberal on social issues, Democrat.

Political Elites, Public Opinion, and Public Policy Two ways elites influence public opinion 1.Raise and frame political issues 2.State the norms by which issues should be settled. –Norm-a standard of right or proper conduct. Elites do have limits as to how much they can influence the public. –Economic problems

Major polling groups Rasmussen Reports Zogby Pew Research Quinniapac USA Today CNN Older polling – Harris, Gallup

How do polls work? Straw vote: the most famous of all straw-polling mistakes?

Polling process 1. Define the universe to be surveyed. Universe is the whole population the poll intends to survey 2. Construct a sample; a sample is a part of the universe – a random sample is where a pollster interviews a certain # of randomly selected people who live in a certain # of randomly selected places 3. Prepare valid questions 4. Select and control how the poll will be taken 5. Analyze and report their findings to the public

Law of probability The law of probability is regularly applied – if the sample is of sufficient size and is properly selected at random from the entire universe, the law of probability says that the result will be accurate to within a small and predictable margin of error.

Accuracy Mathematicians tell us that a properly drawn random sample of some 1,500 people will reflect the opinions of the nation’s entire adult population and will be accurate to within a margin of plus or minus 3 percent. Most polls claim to be within plus or minus 4 percent. So, candidate A could be trailing candidate B by 4 points when in actuality, they are in a dead heat. Famous polling failure of 1948?

Preparing valid questions Wording can affect the reliability of any poll. Pollsters try not to use emotionally charged language. They also try to avoid questions that are worded in a way that will tend to shape the answers that are given to them. For example: Most people would probably say yes to this question: “Should local taxes be reduced?” Many of those same people will also answer yes to this question: “Should the city’s police force be increased to fight the rising tide of crime in our community?”

Arkansas Poll The Arkansas News Bureau-Stephens Media poll conducted by Opinion Research Associates of Little Rock showed Attorney General Mike Beebe with a commanding lead over former congressman Asa Hutchinson, 52 percent to 31 percent. The poll had 500 respondents – 125 from each of the state’s four congressional districts and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Arkansas Poll Other recent polls have shown the race to be much closer – a Rasmussen poll on August 15 showed the race to be within the margin of error. In 1986 the same polling group had predicted Hutchinson to defeat incumbent senator Dale Bumpers and Hutchinson was trounced.

Arkansas Poll In District 1, Beebe was favored 62% to 25% for Hutchinson In District 2, Beebe polled 58% to 22% for Hutchinson In District 3 (northwest Arkansas) Hutchinson led 51% to 33% for Beebe In District 4 Beebe led Hutchinson 57% to 28%

Enduring Questions According to the Framers of the Constitution, what, if any, part should public opinion play in America’s representative democracy? How, if at all, does public opinion in America today vary by race, religion, and other differences?

Exit polls Exit polls are used to predict election winners by polling people leaving after voting. Problems?

And, finally on polls Polls are not substitutes for elections. Voters must be able to tell the difference between opinions and concrete information, and should know the difference between personalities and platforms. Democracy is more than a simple measurement of opinion. It is about making careful choices among leaders and their positions on issues, and among the governmental actions that may follow.

Enduring Questions What is political ideology, and to what extent are ideological differences reflected in political behavior? How responsive is contemporary American Government to the opinion of persistent popular majorities, and to what extent do political elites shape how average citizens debate and decide policy issues?