The Very Visible, Invisible Primary

Office Hours When – Today – Wednesday 10-2 Doyle 226B

Learning Outcomes Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

THE INVISIBLE PRIMARY

The Invisible Primary (Historically) The Time from the first Declaration to the Iowa caucus The media shapes your expectations and standings Fundraising was the barometer

The Modern Invisible Primary No longer invisible Constant Polls and debates measure success Candidates read the handwriting

Constant Debating

You Cant tell the players without a scorecard Who was in the Race?

MEMBERS OF THE HOUSE

Ron Paul Representative from Texas The “libertarian candidate” A Long Shot at Best

Newt Gingrich Former Speaker of the House from Georgia Architect of the 1994 Republican sweep Out of Politics for a Decade

Michele Bachmann Representative from MN Tea Party Supporter The only woman in the race

THE LONG SHOT

Herman Cain CEO of Godfather Pizza No Political Experience Guest Host of Rush Limbaugh Show

How the Candidates looked

THE NEW MITT ROMNEY

The 2008 Conservative Tried to Position himself as business conservative Largely Ignored social issues

No Traction in 2008 Self-financed No Nationwide appeal Flip-flopper

The 2008 Campaign Wasn’t Built for the long haul Deliver a 1-2 Punch He doesn’t even get a 1

Attacked from the Right Romney and Huckabee go after each other Romney spends all his money This opens the door for McCain

Romney in 2012 Diffuse the Religion issue Call anyone who attacks a religious bigot The attacks never come

Romney in 2012 More accepting of attacks Didn’t Punch down Avoided controversy Made himself more approachable

JOCKEYING TO BE THE UNROMNEY

The GOP in November

Being the Unromney Positioning yourself as the alternate to Romney He was viewed as a flawed and vulnerable front runner Every time someone grabbed it, they faltered

The Iowa Straw Poll Bachmann wins the Ames Iowa Straw Poll Spent much of her money to win No one cared as Perry announced that same day

Bachmann’s Brief Time as Unromney Migraine headaches kept her off the trail Took abuse for neglecting her family Criticized for her appearance.

Herman Cain: The Next Unromney Led the Race in October Very Popular

The End of Herman Cain Accused of Harassment while head of National Restaurant Association This signals the End of the Campaign The Romney Camp is actually disappointed.

THE FALL AND RISE OF NEWT GINGRICH The Next Unromney

The Fall of Newt Gingrich Spent more time and money on his wife Staff Deserted him No Money

Gingrich’s Problems Needed the Other Conservatives out of the Race Find Money Had to Hang on until South Carolina

The Reemergence of Gingrich The Best Red Meat Debater in the field The Most political experience No one “punched down” at him

RICK SANTORUM

The Most Unlikely Unromney Was 4 or 5 th in Most Polls Lost his last race by 18 points Largely Ignored

The Santorum Message Said what was on his mind Small Government Populism Blue Collar Roots appealed to working class voters

RICK PERRY AS THE UNROMNEY

Perry in 2009 He is trailing KBH by 20 Points He was seen as being more lucky than Good People thought He had no chance

For the GOP Nomination Claims she is untested and too moderate for the Texas GOP He aligns himself with the Tea Party He makes himself an outsider despite 20 years in Government

Perry in 2010 Used the GOP majorities to push conservative policies Pro Job Pro Gun Anti-DC

He Goes after the Third Rail

Perry Announces 8/13/2011 Charleston S.C. on the day of the Iowa Straw Poll Strong support among conservatives The primaries should be easy for him

12 days after he announces, he is the Unromney 29-17

From there his campaign falls apart