Megaregions Energy Systems Megaregions + MetroProsperity Sustainable Economics for the Texas Triangle September 24, 2009 Raymond L. Orbach Director Energy Institute University of Texas at Austin

Just the Facts: The Texas Triangle is not alone Over 50% of the world’s population now lives in urban areas. Approximately 2/3 of world primary energy is consumed by cities. Energy use in cities is a key element in the fight against global climate change. The global economic downturn has created a risk-averse investment climate and strained public sector finances. With scarce resources and the need to achieve greater carbon savings, improvements to urban energy systems will increasingly require integrated solutions that deliver maximum economic efficiency and multiple benefits through a systematic, integrated approach to the design and operation of urban energy systems.

How do we optimize urban energy systems? Application of quantitative holistic analysis Identification of achievable benefits: –Economic –Energy efficiency –Environmental impact –Energy security –System resilience and robustness –Quality of life Identification of how benefits might be achieved Power of modern optimization techniques in the urban context

What Do We Model in a City? How the space is organized: –Built environment and its functions –Transport system How people and systems use this space How resource demands vary in space and time What is the best resource interconversion technology and flow network? What is the best engineering service network

Layout model with constraints: everyone is close to needs, while closest to needs most often [“Urban Energy Systems”, Imperial College, London] Combinatorial optimisation (cf. VLSI & chip design) Proxy for transport energy consumption and clustering benefit Ensures “well-connectedness” of cities and access to activities Can incorporate a wealth of constraints Solution can be starting point for urban designer “Green Field” example: low density high density (PE = primary education; SE = secondary education; Hi = high density; Low = low density; H = health; C = commerce; Li = light industry; L = leisure. Thicker the lines, more connectivity)

Sustainable Economics for the Texas Triangle Undertake a thorough review and critical appraisal of the state-of-the art relating to urban energy systems analysis, modeling and implementation appropriate for the Texas Triangle Develop a conceptual framework for the characterization and modeling of urban energy systems over a wide range of systems and networks Characterize the interplay between urban infrastructures, people and communities (and their needs), and business and service providers, in particular seeking to understand the determinants of demand via consumer behavior, and how innovation takes place in large, complex systems Apply the research of these activities to the Texas Triangle Perform first-cut urban systems optimization studies, in particular identifying a hierarchy of steps that will improve the performance (economic, energy efficiency, environmental impact) of urban energy systems –The Texas Triangle urban layout model –The Texas Triangle transport-land use model –The Texas Triangle resource-technology network optimization model –The Texas Triangle energy service network model