Load Forecast T SRINIVAS MANAGER SRLD C

LINKS PREAMBLE GENERATION ANALYSIS GROWTH OF I/C GROWTH OF I/C Vs DEMAND PHYSICAL INTERPRETATION ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION PATTERN OF INDIA INTER-REGIONAL IMPORTS CONCLUSION GENERATION ADDITIONS UPTO MAR-05 LOAD DURATION CURVE DEMAND INDICES RANKING COMPARISION OF ACTUAL Vs FORECASTED DEMAND IEGC PROVISION BACKGROUND LOAD FORECAST APPROACHES MORE LINKS CONSUMPTION PATTERN FREQUENCY PROFILE DAILY LOAD CURVE ECONOMIC INDICATORS GROWTH OF ENERGY Vs DEMAND COMPARISION SPARE

MORE LINKS AP KAR KER TN SR HOURWISE FORECAST PEAK LEAN AVERAGE LOAD FACTOR PEAK - LEAN SPARE

PREAMBLE Essential part of Power system planning & operation Planner’s mind obsessed with Exponential growth Indian forecast – Rarely hit bull’s eye Important task – Reliability & Economic operation Highly capital intensive Requires axiomatic approach Forecast based on time series Analysis IEGC provision IEGC provision Factors Considered –Peak demand –Lean demand –Energy Demand Energy DemandEnergy Demand –Economic Indicator Economic IndicatorEconomic Indicator –Pattern of consumption Pattern of consumptionPattern of consumption –Diurnal Variation Diurnal VariationDiurnal Variation –Seasonal Dependency Seasonal DependencySeasonal Dependency

BACKGROUND Acute shortage in 80’s & 90’s Acute shortage in 80’s & 90’s Commissioning of Inter-regional Link Commissioning of Inter-regional Link (HVDC & B2B) Commissioning of Inter-regional Link Additions of IPP’s Additions of IPP’s Additional 1000MW per year since 2000 Additional 1000MW per year since 2000

LOAD FORECAST Reliable demand forecast – yield accurate results. Entire concentration on peak power and energy consumption Little consideration to the load curve YEAR  Projected as per 16 th EPS report (2000) 17,97921,29722,78424,212 Actual Achieved 17,18019,42820,06320,428 DEMAND IN MW

APPROACHES Extrapolation Curve Expert Economic correlation

PHYSICAL INTERPRETATION OF THE CO-EFFICIENT

GENERATION ANALYSIS INSTALLED CAPACITY INSTALLED CAPACITYINSTALLED CAPACITYINSTALLED CAPACITY HYDRO – THERMAL MIX 36 : 64 HYDRO – THERMAL MIX 36 : 64 LIKELY ADDITIONS LIKELY ADDITIONSLIKELY ADDITIONSLIKELY ADDITIONS

INSTALLED CAPACITY OF SOUTHERN REGION AS ON IN MW 28900MW

CONCLUSION FORECAST NEEDS TO BE DONE – PAST TRENDS – PRESENT SITUATION – FUTURE REQUIREMENTS DIFFERENT MODELS SHOULD BE APPLIED SOUTHERN STATES TO DEVELOP FORECASTING TECHNIQUE LONG TERM AND SHORT TERM FORECAST ASSUMED SIGNIFICANCE UNDER ABT GENERATION MIX MUST BE PLANNED GIVING DUE REGARD TO LOAD CURVE AN EXERCISE TO BE DONE REGULARLY – ELSE MAY PROVE VERY COSTLY.

IEGC PROVISION IEGC order issued by CERC has given due importance to load forecasting for operational purposes. Clause of IEGC is quoted below: Quote: “ Each State/SLDC shall develop methodologies/mechanisms for daily/weekly/monthly/yearly demand estimation (MW, MVAR and MWH) for operational purposes. The data for the estimation shall also include load shedding, power cuts etc. SLDCs shall also maintain historical database for demand estimation. “ Unquote:

COMMISSIONING OF INTER-REGIONAL LINKS HVDC Bhadrawati 1997 HVDC Bhadrawati 1997 (Between WR & SR) 1,000MW HVDC Gazuwaka1999 HVDC Gazuwaka1999 (Between ER & SR) 500MW HVDC Talcher – Kolar2002 HVDC Talcher – Kolar2002 (Between ER & SR) 2,000MW

INTER REGIONAL IMPORTS (MU)

RECENT MAJOR IPP’S ADDITIONS Kayamkulam 350MW 1999 Kayamkulam 350MW 1999 Kondapalli 350MW 2000 Kondapalli 350MW 2000 P.P.Nallur 330MW2001 P.P.Nallur 330MW2001 Tanir Bhavi 235MW 2001 Tanir Bhavi 235MW 2001 BSES 220MW2002 BSES 220MW2002 ST-CMS 250MW2002 ST-CMS 250MW2002 Simhadri1,000MW2002 Simhadri1,000MW2002

GROWTH OF ENERGY AND PEAK LOAD OF SR PEAK LOAD ENERGY

GROWTH OF INSTALLED CAPACITY IN SR

GROWTH OF I/C Vs DEMAND MET % Growth DMD % Growth I/C

CHANGING CONSUMPTION PATTERN

ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION OF INDIA

TYPICAL DAILY LOAD CURVE OF SR TYPICAL DAILY LOAD DURATION CURVE OF SR

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR SR

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH OF STATES ANDHRA PRADESHKARNATAKA TAMIL NADUKERALA

SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS APKARKERTN ALL INDIA Per Capita Electric Consumption, (kwh) Per capita value added in Industries, (Rs) Gross factory output per capita, (Rs) % of main workers to total population Source - Statistical Outline of India, , Tata Services limited. Dept. of Economics and Statistics.

SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS APKARKERTN ALL INDIA Per Capita Electric Consumption, (kwh) Per capita value added in Industries, (Rs) Gross factory output per capita, (Rs) % of main workers to total population Source - Statistical Outline of India, , Tata Services limited. Dept. of Economics and Statistics. RELATIVE RANKING OF THE CONSTITUENTS ON DIFFERENT INDICES BASED ON THE SYNTHESIS OF DATA ATTRIBUTERELATIVE POSITION HIGH ---> LOW PEAK GROWTH RATETNKARAPKEL SATURATION EFFECTSAPKELKARTN LEAN GROWTH RATETNAPKARKEL ENERGY GROWTH RATETNAPKARKEL DIFF. OF PEAK & LEANKARTNAPKEL LOAD FACTORAPTNKELKAR SEASONAL VARIATIONKARAPKELTN

EXPECTED GENERATIONS ADDITION UPTO MAR – 05 NAME OF THE STATION HYDRO THERMAL IPP's UTILITY EXPECTED IN EXPECTED IN SRISAILAM LEFT BANKHYDROAP150 MINI HYDELIPPAP30 WIND ENERGYIPPAP55 MINI POWER PLANTSIPPAP30960 INDUSTRIAL WASTE BASEDIPPAP1633 MUNICIPAL WASTE BASEDIPPAP1311 BIOMASSIPPAP BAGASSEIPPAP9540 ALMATTI DAM PHHYDROKAR70165 BELLARY-TPSTHERMALKAR 500 PYKARA ULTIMATEHYDROTN150 BHAVANI STAGE IIHYDROTN30 KUTTALAMTHERMALTN100 ARKAY ENERGY LTD.IPPTN53 ABAN POWER CoIPPTN 103 TALCHER STAGE IITHERMALNTPC TOTAL

FREQUENCY PROFILE OF SR AVG OF MAX AVG OF AVG AVG OF MIN

FREQUENCY CURVE FOR 8 th AUGUST 2003 FVI = 0.10 Avg Freq = 50.00Hz

LOAD DURATION CURVE OF SR

RELATIVE RANKING OF THE CONSTITUENTS ON DIFFERENT INDICES BASED ON THE SYNTHESIS OF DATA ATTRIBUTERELATIVE POSITION HIGH ---> LOW PEAK GROWTH RATETNKARAPKEL SATURATION EFFECTSAPKELKARTN LEAN GROWTH RATETNAPKARKEL ENERGY GROWTH RATETNAPKARKEL DIFF. OF PEAK & LEANKARTNAPKEL LOAD FACTORAPTNKELKAR SEASONAL VARIATIONKARAPKELTN

COMPARISION OF ACTUAL & FORECASTED DEMAND OF SR MONTH SOUTHERN REGION ACTUAL DEMAND MET(MW) FORECASTED DEMAND (MW) VARIATION (MW) % VARIATION Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR SR

LOAD FACTOR OF SR

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN OF SR

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN AS % OF PEAK OF SR

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR AP

LOAD FACTOR OF ANDHRA PRADESH

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN OF AP

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN AS % OF PEAK OF AP

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR KAR

LOAD FACTOR OF KARNATAKA

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN OF KARNATAKA

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN AS % OF PEAK OF KAR

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR KERALA

LOAD FACTOR OF KERALA

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN OF KERALA

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN AS % OF PEAK OF KER

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR TN

LOAD FACTOR OF TAMIL NADU

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN OF TN

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN AS % OF PEAK OF TN

LOAD FACTOR OF

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK AND LEAN OF

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