1 OECD / Eurostat taskforce on performing revisions analysis for sub-annual economic statistics Performing Revisions Analysis for Sub-Annual Economic Statistics.

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Presentation transcript:

1 OECD / Eurostat taskforce on performing revisions analysis for sub-annual economic statistics Performing Revisions Analysis for Sub-Annual Economic Statistics Summary report of the OECD/Eurostat Task Force Robin Youll ONS, UK

2 OECD / Eurostat taskforce on performing revisions analysis for sub-annual economic statistics Motivation Importance of revisions analysis to: 1. Users: information on robustness of estimates aids interpretation of data relating to current economic conjuncture. 2. Producers: integral part of and ideal revisions policy facilitates better understand of the compilation process aids identification of problems/improvements

3 OECD / Eurostat taskforce on performing revisions analysis for sub-annual economic statistics Mandate To develop a set of guidelines on best practice for performing and using the results of revisions analyses, and in formulating a revisions analysis policy which effectively supports user needs in conjunction with the release of sub-annual economic statistics. The intention is also to provide a set of standard tools as a resource to both producers and users of official statistics to enable such analysis to be performed.

4 OECD / Eurostat taskforce on performing revisions analysis for sub-annual economic statistics Terms of Reference Define type of data and organization required for revisions analysis Define of a range of summary statistics Develop a revisions analysis tool Develop guidelines on good practice for revisions policy Define the different causes of revisions Develop guidelines on how to analyse revisions Develop guidelines on use of revisions analysis to identify improvements to compilation/estimation Analytic issues for exploration: –relationship between revisions and stability of different types of estimates –relationship between timeliness and size of revisions

5 OECD / Eurostat taskforce on performing revisions analysis for sub-annual economic statistics Membership of the Task Force

6 OECD / Eurostat taskforce on performing revisions analysis for sub-annual economic statistics Outputs of Task Force Comprehensive reference material for users and producers on revisions policy and analysis web page: thirteen papers on a range of issues related presentations IT tool for performing revisions analysis

7 OECD / Eurostat taskforce on performing revisions analysis for sub-annual economic statistics The ‘pivot’: A Revisions Policy PrincipleRelated task-force outputs Pillars of a Revisions Policy Statement of a general frameworkA Framework for Revisions Policy of Key Economic Indicators Accessibility and communication Stability over time and predictability Issues related to the revisions process Synchronization between release calendars 1. Comprehensive framework of reasons for revisions and their timing Accessibility of historical data on revisions 2. Guidelines for establishing a real-time database for performing revisions analysis Regular monitoring 3. Recommended statistical measures for interpreting revision analyses 4. Software for performing revisions analysis Treatment of major and unexpected revisions 5. Revisions and the role of metadata Decomposing revisions by reason Process improvement6. Using revisions analysis to identify problems in compilation methods 7. The relationship between timeliness and revisions

8 OECD / Eurostat taskforce on performing revisions analysis for sub-annual economic statistics The Revisions Framework Home Page Theme related to revision policy and analysis Summary of recommendations for revisions policy and analysis Guidelines for establishing a real-time database for performing revisions analysis Recommended statistical measures for interpreting the outputs of revision analyses Pre-programmed software for performing revisions analysis A framework for revisions policy of key economic indicators Comprehensive framework of reasons for revisions and their timing Guidelines on how to decompose total revision into different reasons for revisions Guidelines on how to use the results from revision analyses to improve compilation methods Case studies on the relationship between timeliness of release and size of revisions

9 OECD / Eurostat taskforce on performing revisions analysis for sub-annual economic statistics Summary Terms of Reference were met in full Revisions Framework home page established Revisions Policy forms the ‘pivot’ Revisions analysis tool freely available on the web

10 OECD / Eurostat taskforce on performing revisions analysis for sub-annual economic statistics THE END