1 Review on the Monthly Oil Data Collection 11th March 2002 Taipei Shigeru Kimura for EDMC/IEEJ

2 Contents Background History Coverage Timeliness Unit used by member economies Current Data Situation Completeness by member economies Accuracy (Compare to the APEC Quarterly data) Accuracy (Compare between M-1 and M-2) Accuracy (Compare to IEA and OLADE) Standardization Conclusion Next Step Future Activities

3 Background Crude oil prices increased over 30$/bbl about two years ago Although OPEC expanded crude oil production, the prices laid higher Expert of oil consumption countries and production countries considered that the reason is no transparency in oil statistics Preparation of transparent oil statistics in the world is necessary

4 History The Oil Data Transparency Initiative EGEDA in Hong Kong26-27 March 2001 Dr. Chun requested to cooperate the Energy Security Initiative in APEC region Bangkok meeting2-3 April 2001 The Joint Oil Data Exercise (JODE) was agreed Vienna meeting10 May 2001 Six international organizations decided the format and definition for the exercise Two months of oil data to be collected (M-1 and M-2) JODE was implementedJune- November 2001 Riyadh meeting10-12 November 2001 Reviewed the JODE and discussed further step JODE expandedDecember-September 2002

5 Coverage Submission of the oil data for M-1 Japan, Mexico, New Zealand and USA Submission of the oil data for M-2 Australia, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Korea, PNG, Peru, Russia, Chinese Taipei and Thailand Submission of the oil data before M-2 Brunei, Canada, Indonesia and Philippines To submit near future Malaysia and Vietnam No Submission Singapore

6 Timeliness Situation of data received

7 Timeliness Submitting the data regularly Australia, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Thailand and USA Hong Kong Submitting the data irregularly China, Korea, PNG, Peru, Russia and Chinese Taipei Forget to submit the data Chile

8 Unit used by member economies Metric Ton Australia, Canada, China, Hong Kong, Korea, New Zealand and Russia Cubic Meter Brunei and Chile Liter Japan and Thailand Chinese Taipei uses Liter of Crude Oil Equivalent Barrel Indonesia, PNG, Philippines, Peru and USA Mexico uses Barrel/Day

9 Current Data Situation

10 Incompleteness by member economies Brunei

11 Incompleteness by member economies Chile

12 Incompleteness by member economies China

13 Incompleteness by member economies Hong Kong, China

14 Incompleteness by member economies Indonesia

15 Incompleteness by member economies PNG

16 Incompleteness by member economies Peru

17 Incompleteness by member economies Russia

18 Incompleteness by member economies Chinese Taipei

19 Incompleteness by member economies Thailand

20 Accuracy (Compare to APEC quarterly data) Australia (April to June)

21 Japan (April to June)

22 New Zealand (April to June)

23 Chinese Taipei (April to June)

24 Thailand (April to June)

25 United States of America (April to June)

26 Suggestion The monthly oil data are similar to the quarterly data The reason for significant gap between them is different definition for energies and sectors

27 Accuracy (Compare between M-1 & M-2) Japan

28 Japan M-1 includes only asphalt and paraffin in other petroleum products

29 Mexico

30

31 New Zealand

32

33 USA

34

35 Suggestion M-1 seems to be provisional M-2 seems to be final or almost final

36 Accuracy (Compare to IEA & OLADE) Result(1): APEC-IEA

37 Result(2): APEC-IEA

38 To IEA Australia:same as IEA Japan:difference in stocks National strategic stocks are included in IEA M-1 could be revised one and two month later Korea:same as IEA Mexico:almost same as IEA Convert to bbl to ton using Japan’s specific gravity M-1 could be revised later New Zealand:same as IEA USA:almost same as IEA Convert bbl to ton using Japan’s specific gravity M-1 could be revised later

39 Result: APEC-OLADE

40 To OLADE Chile:same as APEC Mexico:same as APEC

41 Standardization Common Unit 1000kl Methodology for standardization of Unit Ton Collection of specific gravity from member economy: Australia collected Temporary specific gravity has been applied (ex. Japan)

42 Conversion factors of Australia Temporary conversion factors: Japan

43 Cubic Meter 1m^3=1kl Liter Liter of crude oil equivalent Conversion factors collected by EDMC/IEEJ

44 Barrel 1bbl= kl Barrel/day 1bbl= kl 31 days in Jan., 28 days in Feb., 31 days in Mar., … 30 days in Nov. and 31 days in Dec.

45 Conclusion Coverage is maintained high level Timeliness has to be improved. The data submission from several member economies are delay Completeness depend on member economies. Import/export and closing stocks should be filled Accuracy is maintained reasonable level after comparison result to APEC quarterly data and M-1 & M-2 figures

46 Next Step Take Singapore and Vietnam on board Improve timeliness and completeness More accuracy will be required. We are now at first stage and the importance of the first stage must be coverage. But at second stage, we have to follow the definition for increasing transparency on the monthly oil data

47 Future Activities Workshop on Energy Security Initiative April in Taipei International meeting on oil statistics May in Mexico City International Energy Forum September in Osaka