JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 2010 YEAR IN REVIEW Mr. Robert (Bob) Falvey Director, Joint Typhoon Warning Center 65th INTERDEPARTMENTAL HURRICANE CONFERENCE.

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Presentation transcript:

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 2010 YEAR IN REVIEW Mr. Robert (Bob) Falvey Director, Joint Typhoon Warning Center 65th INTERDEPARTMENTAL HURRICANE CONFERENCE 28 FEB – 3 MAR 2011 MIAMI, FL Super Typhoon Megi DMSP F-17 Visible

MISSION Provide tropical cyclone reconnaissance, analysis, forecast and warning support for Department of Defense, and other US Government assets in the Pacific and Indian Oceans as established by Commander, United States Pacific Command.

2010 SATELLITE RECON (Fixes by Agency) (Total: 10,037)

2010 SATELLITE RECON (JTWC (PGTW) Fixes ) (Total: 6,334) Total Microwave Fixes: 3,136 (49.5% of total)

5 ANNUAL TC ACTIVITY (All Basins / All Intensities) Year Number of Cyclones

2010 NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

2010 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

2010 WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC Tropical Depressions: 5 Tropical Storms: 5 Typhoons: 8 Super Typhoons: 1 (Megi) Lowest number of warned cyclones in JTWC record

2010 JTWC TRACK ERRORS (All Basins)

JTWC TRACK ERRORS 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr *Goal: (Western North Pacific Hours)

JTWC TRACK ERRORS 96 Hr 120 Hr *Goal: (WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC – Hours)

2010 WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TRACK ERRORS (Storm by Storm)

CROSS TRACK (direction) ERROR (Western North Pacific)

ALONG TRACK (speed) ERROR (Western North Pacific)

2010 MODEL TRACK ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

2010 JTWC INTENSITY ERRORS (All Basins)

JTWC INTENSITY ERRORS (Western North Pacific Hours) 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr 96Hr 120Hr *Goal: +/- 20% of actual at all TAUs

2010 WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC INTENSITY ERRORS (Storm by Storm)

2010 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

2011 PROJECTS/EVENTS Genesis or Development potential –Use of radiance data (Ritchie) –Statistical/Dynamic (Murphree) Intensity analysis/forecast/verification –(OBT,ADT/SATCON,AMSU) Ensemble TC forecasting Rapid intensification climatology, diagnoses, and prediction TC / TUTT cell interaction Singular vector analysis –Application of sensitivity studies (Reynolds, et. Al.) Improvements to data processing, display, analysis and storage –Google Earth tool (GEMINI) –PZAL (Collab) archive –JTWC Automation Management System (JAMS) –AWIPS-2 Evaluation COAMPS-TC evaluation GFDN upgrades / coupling AFWA UM TC Tracker Mark IVB X-Band Upgrade Typhoon Conference –Tokyo, 5-8 April 2011 Hosted Taiwan CWB and Australia BoM visiting scientists Building closer ties with UH Hiring GS-13 Chief Scientist –Increased JHT/HFIP participation –Possible JHT funding (~$500K)

OPERATIONAL ITEMS ITOP / TCS-10 – TDOs flew missions Invest/Suspect Areas –Poor/Fair/Good potential for development change to Low/Medium/High probability of development –Clarity for non-weather customers –Implementation 1 Jun 11 ATCF Funding – Back on Track Continued focus on along track and intensity

STILL NEED WORK ON TRACK (TC Phet (03A)) UKMO (EGGR)GFSNOGAPS ECMWF GFDN JTWC & CONW

Contact Info Commanding Officer, NMFC/JTWC CAPT Mike Angove (808) Director Mr. Robert Falvey (808) Technical Advisor Mr. Ed Fukada (808) Operations Officer (JTOPS) LCDR Jeremy Callahan (808) Techniques Development Mr. Matt Kucas (808) Satellite Operations Flight Capt Jay Neese (808)

QUESTIONS

BACKUPS

JTWC AOR 33% 8% 11%13% 7% 1 7% RSMC Miami

27 TC ACTIVITY NW Pacific NW Pacific 2006: : : : : : : : : : Yr avg: 31 S. Indian Ocean & W. Australia Region 2006: : : : : Yr avg: 18 South Pacific & E. Australia Region 2006: : : : : Yr avg: 10 C Pacific C Pacific 2006: : : : : : : : : : 1 25 Yr avg: 2 25 Yr avg: 2 NE Pacific NE Pacific 2006: : : : : : : : : : Yr avg: 18 Arabian Sea & Bay of Bengal 2006: : : : : : : : : : 5 25 Yr avg: 5 25 Yr avg: 5

28 ANNUAL TC ACTIVITY (Western North Pacific Ocean) Year Number of Cyclones

29 ANNUAL TC ACTIVITY (North Indian Ocean) Year Number of Cyclones

30 ANNUAL TC ACTIVITY (Southern Hemisphere) Year Number of Cyclones

2010 SATELLITE RECON Microwave Fixes by JTWC Total Microwave Fixes: 3,136 (49.5% of total)

AVERAGE TRACK ERROR (Western North Pacific)

2010 MODEL TRACK ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Non-homogeneous) Note: GFDN errors negatively impacted by code porting problem

2007 MODEL TRACK ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

2008 MODEL TRACK ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

2009 MODEL TRACK ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

2010 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Non-homogeneous)

2007 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

2008 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

2009 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)