Baseline Forecasting Workshop © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved. This PowerPoint presentation may not be duplicated, distributed or.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment MODULE 11: ASSESSING THE FUTURE.

Advertisements

PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT

EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 1 - [THE] – GECAFS Scenario Workshop Environmental Scenario Analysis.

Quote for the Day © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved. This PowerPoint presentation may not be duplicated, distributed or excerpted without.

Continuous School Improvement Final Presentation School Name Date.

The basics of quantifying qualitative scenarios By Gerald Harris Author, The Art of Quantum Planning.

Research Basics PE 357. What is Research? Can be diverse General definition is “finding answers to questions in an organized and logical and systematic.

John Holmberg, Chalmers University of Technology Backcasting and scenario analysis John Holmberg, Chalmers University of Technology at the STD seminar.

Stress Research Logic, Design, and Process. 4 Ways of Thinking Formalistic: A or B Formalistic: A or B Mechanistic: A causes only B Mechanistic: A causes.

Why forecasting? Understanding future possibilities. Understanding the possible changes in business conditions. Learning how to cope with the possible.

1 Scenario Planning: An Alternative Way of Dealing with Uncertainty.

Quote of the day “Almost no one expected what was coming. It’s not fair to blame us for not predicting the unthinkable.” Daniel H. Mudd, former CEO of.

Supply Chain Management (SCM) Forecasting 3

© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved. This PowerPoint presentation may not be duplicated, distributed or excerpted without the University’s.

Scientific Method Lab.

Quote of the day “Chance favors the prepared mind” Louis Pasteur 1854 Scenario Development Methods © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Chapter 10 Conducting & Reading Research Baumgartner et al Chapter 10 Qualitative Research.

Section 2: Science as a Process

TECHNICAL APPENDIX METHODOLOGY SUMMARY FOR CPM RESEARCH Missions International PO Box – Franklin, TN –

Decision-Making In Project Management Decision Framing Intaver Institute Inc. 303, 6707, Elbow Drive S.W, Calgary, AB, Canada Tel: +1(403) Fax:

Strategic planning-- scenarios b.v.l.narayanaSptm/rsc/brc.

Copyright © 2008 Wolters Kluwer Health | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins Chapter 12 Undertaking Research for Specific Purposes.

© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved. This PowerPoint presentation may not be duplicated, distributed or excerpted without the University’s.

SIMULATION USING CRYSTAL BALL. WHAT CRYSTAL BALL DOES? Crystal ball extends the forecasting capabilities of spreadsheet model and provide the information.

The aim / learning outcome of this module is to understand how to gather and use data effectively to plan the development of recycling and composting.

Is It a Puzzle, Or Is It a Mystery? Three Tools For Solving Mysteries…… with The Wisdom of Crowds David E. Schnedler

United States Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service 1 National Advisory Committee on Meat and Poultry Inspection August 8-9, 2007.

Vocabulary Strategy #1: Flash Cards. Please take 13 notecards Back of Card Definition of word / examples Front of Card Word.

© 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Davison and Neale: Abnormal Psychology, 8e Abnormal Psychology, Eighth Edition by Gerald C. Davison and John M. Neale Lecture.

Systems thinking is a discipline for seeing wholes. It is a framework for seeing interrelationships rather than things, for seeing patterns of change rather.

1 Where to look? –MGTC24 website has links on how to use search engines How to decide you have good sources? Doing Library Research.

Chapter 6 Human Resource Planning McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2009 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved.

Introduction Definition Forecasting Technology Technological Forecasting Process Forecasting Techniques Current Status Technology Discontinuity Summary.

U SING S CENARIOS IN A CADEMIC R ESEARCH TO S TUDY THE F UTURE International Migration Institute (IMI) Oxford Department of International Development Oxford.

Gerald Harris Planning and Strategy Development An introduction to Scenario-based Strategic Planning.

Agenda Interthink – 2003 Organizational Project Management Baseline Study –Industry Profile –Country Profile –Organization Size –Data On Schedule –Data.

Scientific Methodology One Goal of Science is to provide natural explanations for events in the natural world One Goal of Science is to provide natural.

Introduction to Earth Science Section 2 Section 2: Science as a Process Preview Key Ideas Behavior of Natural Systems Scientific Methods Scientific Measurements.

Notes. Science is… The gathering of information by methods including observation and experimentation Systematic Repeatable Testable.

Chapter 2 Doing Sociological Research Key Terms. scientific method Involves several steps in research process, including observation, hypothesis testing,

Global Environmental Change and Food Systems Scenarios Research up to date Monika Zurek FAO April 2005.

Anatomy of a Research Article Five (or six) major sections Abstract Introduction (without a heading!) Method (and procedures) Results Discussion and conclusions.

Futurist of the Day… …The slow one now will later be fast And the present now will later be past The order is rapidly fadin’ And the first one now Will.

Methods of Data Collection Survey Methods Self-Administered Questionnaires Interviews Methods of Observation Non-Participant Observation Participant Observation.

Copyright © 2014 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.

AS Research Methods - REVISION. Methods and Techniques Pilot Studies – used why? Experimental Method –THREE types of experiment? –S&W of each? Correlational.

© 2017 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

1.3: Scientific Thinking & Processes Key concept: Science is a way of thinking, questioning, and gathering evidence.

Technology Forecasting. Forecasting predict or estimate a future event or trend. "rain is forecast for Lahore“ The use of historic data to determine the.

Management Practices Lecture-5 1. Recap Behavioral Management The Hawthorne Studies Theory X and Y Theory X v. Theory Y Theory Z Systems Considerations.

Planning in production systems 2.Management production Slovak University of Technology Faculty of Material Science and Technology in Trnava.

Copyright © 2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc. All rights reserved.Developed by Cool Pictures and MultiMedia PresentationsCopyright.

Business Forecasting. Used to try to predict the future Uses two main methods: Qualitative – seeking opinions on which to base decision making – Consumer.

The Nature of Research.  What is the value of research -- Why Research is of Value -- Ways of Knowing -- Types of Research -- General Research Types.

Research Methods in Psychology

Plan Risk Management Outputs T &T Inputs Project Management Plan

Section 2: Science as a Process

Common Core Reading Standards for Social Studies

Standard 1: History and Research Methods

Chapter 6 Human Resource Planning

Scientific Process Skills

TEST RUN THROUGH THE METHODOLOGY

What does this problem equal?

Articulating purpose and Framing Research questions

ANALYSING THE ENVIRONMENT

Technology Planning.

Template for methodological application

Environmental forecasting

Presentation transcript:

Baseline Forecasting Workshop © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved. This PowerPoint presentation may not be duplicated, distributed or excerpted without the University’s advance written consent.

3/15/2010 Have a clear strategy What is your central question and indicator (DV)? What are your trend analysis questions and indicators (IVs)? How will you relate the IVs to project the DV? Execute your strategy Gather the data Analyze and Project your IVs Project the expected future for your DV Methods Trend Extrapolation Derivative Extrapolation (e.g. growth rates) Comparative Case Study Analysis (Multivariate) Trend Correlation © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Building a Dataset © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Are your Data Graphics “Report Ready” © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

 Begin with definition of a Domain (central question)  What is the main question you are trying to answer?  Forecast change (trends) for those forces/drivers that will shape the future of your domain  How are driving forces trending and how will they influence the answer to your central question?  Introduce uncertainty (discontinuities)  Plausible events, emerging issues and new ideas  Prioritize by likelihood and impact  Define alternative future scenarios 3/15/2010 No Cookie Cutter Approach © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

 How complete is your data set?  How is the validity of your data?  Are your Baselines complete?  Have you included assumptions and logic?  Are your data graphics “report ready”? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

 Identify Indicators  Central Question (Dependent Variable)  Trend Analysis Questions (Indep Variables)  Build a dataset  Historical Data  Expert Projections  Original Trend Projections  Assess Correlation between IVs and DV  Project and Describe Expected Future © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Work with your team to frame your forecasting model for your project  Project your Independent Variables?  Project your Dependent Variable?  Define the “Expected Future”?  Quantitative aspects  Qualitative aspects © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.