From Commodity Booms to the Knowledge Economy Center for Hemispheric Policy, May 2008 W. F. Maloney Office of the LAC Chief Economist Latin America and.

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Presentation transcript:

From Commodity Booms to the Knowledge Economy Center for Hemispheric Policy, May 2008 W. F. Maloney Office of the LAC Chief Economist Latin America and the Caribbean Region The World Bank

The commodity boom has been kind to Latin America

And a large share of the recent high growth rates are due to this “good luck”

The question: Can Latin America turn this luck into sustained growth? Source: Calderon, Fajnzylber y Loayza (2002)

..And are we back to Prebisch’s concerns with our economic structure? The “resource curse” is probably a myth…but LA underperforms in all sectors Forestry: remains a dynamic sector in Sweden, and Finland...but Brazil or Chile? 1944 Haig report “Chile tremendous forestry potential” didn’t appear

LA under-performs Minerals: can lead to dynamic industries Norway shows US petroleum based success replicable… Discovers petroleum in 1969, now exports platforms; “Norwegian school of thought” in oil exploration. Australia-exports more mining expertise than wine But LA stagnated Brazil, Peru “mining underperformers” Wright (2001). Chile: Australia’s BHP discovered “la Escondida” Agriculture: TFP growth faster in agriculture than manufacturing.. But LA underperforms in both…

…including “high tech” goods Brazil: Airplanes Mexico: Computers Comparative Advantage in Innovation Taiwan: Computers 3.5!!!

Innovation is Central: Forestry remains a dynamic sector in Sweden, Finland Nokia: Site of an early pulp mill in Finland Learn how to learn

It’s not so much what we produce, but that we’re not producing at world class levels.. Why?

Deep historical roots: We started behind in literacy… Sources : Mariscal and Sokoloff 2000, and Meredith 1995, Maloney 2007

… and valued poetry over engineering Sources : Maloney 2007

We continue to under perform in education quality

LAC “underperforms in R&D Source: Lederman and Maloney 2002 “ R&D and Development”

And what we invest generates little knowledge or growth Patents = B 1 R&D + B p Country*R&D Bosch, Lederman and Maloney (2007)

Partly because of low academic quality and weak collaboration between university and firm (interviews with entrepreneurs: scale 1-7) Source: World Economic Forum

Latin Students Abroad: Still Condemned to Solitude?

Challenges to Reform Lack of consensus on importance Chile, yes Mex, Col, Br- noise but not yet coherent Consensus, but difficult political economy Chile- all agreed on macro, but micro haunted by the ghosts of ‘73 Mex-balkanized policy making US-LA post 08: An Alliance for Productivity?

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