What We Have Studied  Sustainability  Ecological Footprint  Tragedy of the Commons  Triple Bottom Line  Sustainable Development  Environmental Value Systems  World Views/Philosophies Frontier Worldview Cornucopia Preservationist Anthropocentric Deep Ecology Technocentric Cassandra Ecocentric

What We Have Studied  Ecosystem Services/Natural Capital  Concept of “overshoot”  Renewable, nonrenewable, and potentially renewable resources  Impact of the agricultural and industrial revolutions on population size and impact on resources  Millennium Ecosystem Assessment  Scientific Method

Human Population Dynamics Chapter 8

AP College Board Objectives (10 – 15%) 1. Human Population dynamics – historical population sizes; distribution; fertility rates; growth rates and doubling times; demographic transition; age-structure diagrams 2. Population size – Strategies for sustainability; cases studies; national policies 3. Impacts of population growth – hunger; disease; economic effects; resource use; habitat destruction

Population Basics Population: all the individuals of a species that live together in an area Density: measurement of population per unit area or unit volume Formula: D p = N S Population Density = # of individuals unit of space

Factors that Affect Density Density-independent factors- Abiotic factors in the environment that affect populations regardless of their density Ex. temperature storms habitat destruction drought

Factors that Affect Densi ty Density-dependent factors- Biotic factors in the environment that have an increasing effect as population size increases Ex. disease competition parasites

Population Density and Distribution

How is Population Data Gathered? Natural Increase Immigration and Emigration Births minus Deaths 1,345 – 645= 700 Age structure Diagrams  Demography: A social science that applies the principles of population ecology to the study of statistical change in human populations

Population Basics  Define the following vocabulary a. Total fertility rate b. Replacement level fertility c. Infant mortality rate d. Doubling time e. Mortality f. Natality g. Life expectancy h. Immigration i. Emigration

Immigration Emigration Natality Mortality Population Factors That Affect Future Population Growth

Human Population Growth

Human Population Growth

Our World at 7 Billion To travel 7 billion miles in your car you’d need to make 29, 000 trips to the Moon!  Global population grows by over 80 million people each year.  We add 2.6 people to the planet every second  Population growth momentum: The continued growth of a population after fertility rates have declined, as a result of a population's young age structure

population-grows-to-7-billion?_sm_au_=iVVRHJkHQnPNnp16 How Did We Get to 7 Billion So Fast???

Almost 1 in 5 people in the world are Chinese…More than 1 of every 6 lives in India.

Predicting world Population Growth

Is Population Growth a Problem?

Human Population Growth Thomas Malthus British economist ( ) Argued that unless population growth were controlled by laws or other social structures the number of people would eventually out grow the available food supply.

An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798) “If society did not limit births then rising death rates would reduce the population through war, disease, and starvation.”

Human Population Growth Paul Ehrlich Biologist at Stanford University “neo-Malthusians” The Population Bomb (1968) Predicted that population growth would unleash famine and conflict that would consume civilization by the end of the 20 th century

I = P x A x T IPAT Model Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren* (1974) *Holdren is a Harvard University environmental scientist. He is also President Obama’s science advisor; Increased Population = more individuals take up space, use resources and generate waste. Increased Affluence = greater per capita resource consumptions that accompanies enhance wealth. Technology= exploitation of minerals, fossil fuels, old-growth forest and fisheries BUT …. Technology= reduces smokestack emissions, harnesses renewable energy, improves manufacturing efficiency

What is Cultural Carrying Capacity? Are you willing to have less space in which to live? Less food to eat --- Less material wealth?

Growth Rate  What is the formula for finding natural increase (growth rate)? r = b – d r = 26/ /1000 r = – = X 100 = 2.1% per year  OR (the easy way) r = 26/10 - 5/10 r = = 2.1 or 2.1% per year

Doubling Time  Rule of 70 – determines the number of years it will take a country’s population to double. Doubling time = 70/%growth rate Growth rate = 70/doubling time  Let’s practice: A country’s growth rate is 1.5%. How many years will it take that country’s population to double? 70/1.5 = 46.7 years

Calculate the annual growth rate and the doubling time for the following countries: Country CBR CDR % increaseDoubling time (yrs) Australia 157 Bangladesh 3713 United States 138 Botswana 369 Canada 147 Germany 1011 Haiti 4219 India 2910 Russia 1112

Calculate the annual growth rate and the doubling time for the following countries : Country CBR CDR% increase Doubling time (yrs) Australia Bangladesh United States Botswana Canada Germany Haiti India Russia

Demographic Facts of Life Grim Reaper’s Revenge As devastating as wars, natural disasters, accidents, diseases, etc. are, they often have little impact on overall population growth worldwide. We are currently adding 228,000 people to the planet each day = to 1 Hong Kong a month!. At today’s present rate of growth, let’s determine how many days it would take to replace those lost.

Mapping Our Population’s Environmental Impact NPP = the net amount of energy stored in plant matter as a result of photosynthesis. Overuse of NPP diminishes resources for other species; alters habitats, communities, and ecosystems; and threatens our future ability to derive ecosystem services. Read The Science behind the Story on pages How did scientist conduct the study? 2.What data did the scientist collect? 3.What were the results of their study? 4.What can scientist conclude from the study?

How do population pyramids help us learn about population?

PRE- REPRODUCTIVE REPRODUCTIVE POST- REPRODUCTIVE

Population pyramids are used to show information about the age and gender of people in a specific country. MaleFemale Population in millions In this country there is a high Birth Rate There is also a high Death Rate. This population pyramid is typical of countries in poorer parts of the world (LEDCs.)

In some LEDCs the government is encouraging couples to have smaller families. This means the birth rate has fallen.

MaleFemale Population in millions In this country the number of people in each age group is about the same. The largest category of people were born about 40 years ago. In this country there is a low Birth Rate and a low Death Rate. This population pyramid is typical of countries in the richer parts of the world (MEDCs.)

Population in millions MaleFemale In this country the birth rate is decreasing. In the future the elderly people will make up the largest section of the population in this country. This is happening more and more in many of the world’s richer countries.

Male Female Population in thousands This country has a large number of temporary workers. These are people who migrate here especially to find a job.

Population pyramid for Mozambique. Population pyramid for Iceland.

What happens next?

What is going to happen to Japan’s population in the future? Why does this matter?

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You decide!

What is the Demographic Transition? high  The shift from high to low mortality and fertility  A sign of socio-economic progress?

Demographic Transition Read pages  What is the definition of demographic transition?  Identify the characteristics of each stage. Stage Description  First Stage – Pre Industrial  Second Stage -- Transitional  Third Stage -- Industrial  Fourth Stage – Post Industrial

Mapping Our Population’s Environmental Impact NPP = the net amount of energy stored in plant matter as a result of photosynthesis. Overuse of NPP diminishes resources for other species; alters habitats, communities, and ecosystems; and threatens our future ability to derive ecosystem services. Read The Science behind the Story on pages How did scientist conduct the study? 2.What data did the scientist collect? 3.What were the results of their study? 4.What can scientist conclude from the study?