Importance of the atmospheric boundary layer (1)
The mission of the atmospheric sciences is to understand and predict weather, climate, and related disasters
Weather-related Disasters: Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes, Typhoons, Cyclones)
Global distribution of the paths of major tropical cyclones during the last 150 years. On average, ~ 80 per year around the world. U.S. Fatalities: normal year 21, Katrina 1836 U.S. Property loss: normal year $5400 million, Katrina $84000 million
Weather-related Disasters: Tornadoes
Weather-related Disasters: Tornadoes U.S. Annual mean fatalities 56, annual mean loss $777 million
Weather-related Disasters: Winter Storms
Weather-related Disasters: Winter Storms U.S. Annual mean fatalities 57, annual mean loss $329 million
Summary: Weather-related Disasters in US
Climate-related Disasters over the world Example 1: El Nino
Disastrous effects of El Nino: 1.Australia-Drought and devastating brush fires 2.Indonesia, Philippines-Crops fail, starvation follows 3.India, Sri Lanka-Drought,fresh water shortages 4.Tahiti-6 tropical cyclones 5.South America-Fish industry devastated5.South America-Fish industry devastated - decrease in nutrients off Peru- fewer fish (anchovy) 6.Across the Pacific-Coral reefs die 7.Colorado River basin-Flooding, mud slides 8.Gulf states-Downpours cause death, property damage 9.Peru, Ecuador-Floods, landslides 10.Southern Africa-Drought, disease, malnutritiondisease
Climate-related Disasters over the world Example 2: Global Warming
Global warming is a critical issue we are facing right now
The modern climatology (meteorology) was born in the 1940s (a very young science!), but has been growing very fast! Carl-Gustaf Rossby ( ) Generally considered as the “father of modern meteorology”. Founder of the “Chicago School of Meteorology”.
Observing the atmosphere: Surface weather stations 1875 (~100) 1975 (>1700)
Observing the atmosphere: Upper-air stations 1970 (>1000)
Observing the atmosphere: Weather Radar First weather radar (NOAA NSSL) Current NEXRAD Doppler radar (NOAA NWS)
Observing the atmosphere: Shipborne radar From Mapes and Lin (2005)
Observing the atmosphere: Aircraft NOAA P3
TIROS-1 (1960) World’s first weather satellite NASA’s Earth Observation System A-Train (2007) Observing the atmosphere: Satellite
Climate Modeling on World’s Fastest Supercomputers Japan’s Earth Simulator (World’s #1 in 2004, #20 now) OSC’s new IBM machine World’s top 50 now
World’s Major Global Climate Models
The current status of weather and climate predictions Weather prediction: Generally good within one week, not good beyond 10 days. The skill depends on season and location. Tropical cyclone (hurricane, typhoon) prediction: good in track, but bad in intensity Climate prediction: Seasonal prediction generally good within 6 months, but not good beyond. Skill depends on season. Climate projection: All models project global warming in the 21st century, but with a 3-fold difference in magnitude.
Summary The mission of meteorology is to understand and predict weather- and climate-related disasters (e.g. tornados, hurricanes, El Nino and global warming). The modern climatology (meteorology) was born in the 1940s (a very young science!), but has been growing very fast! Now we have a global observational network with many satellites, ships, radars and surface stations, as well as very comprehensive prediction models running on the world’s largest computers. The current status of weather and climate predictions: (1) weather prediction good to 10 days, (2) tropical cyclone prediction good in track but not in intensity, (3) climate prediction good to two seasons, (4) climate change projections have a 3-fold difference in magnitude.