U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council 2003 Mid-Year Board Meeting Nashville, TN August 20-22, 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council

U.S. Real GDP Growth

Civilian Unemployment Rate

Consumer Price Index, Apparel

U.S. Cotton Planted Area

U.S. Cotton Supply

U.S. Retail Cotton Consumption

Net Imports of Cotton Textiles

U.S. Cotton Mill Use Million Bales

Foreign Cotton Production & Use

U.S. Cotton Exports

World Cotton Ending Stocks

“A” Index, Spot 4134 and USNE

Cotton Stocks/Use (World less China)

Cotton Stocks/Use (World less China) vs “A” Index

December Cotton Futures Cents per Pound

Cotton Farm Price vs. NY Futures

Summary USDA’s exports are 69% of productionUSDA’s exports are 69% of production –Exports above 10.5 million bales will draw down stocks Continued pressure on mill useContinued pressure on mill use By historical measures, balance sheet suggests better prices, but there are limiting factorsBy historical measures, balance sheet suggests better prices, but there are limiting factors USDA’s exports are 69% of productionUSDA’s exports are 69% of production –Exports above 10.5 million bales will draw down stocks Continued pressure on mill useContinued pressure on mill use By historical measures, balance sheet suggests better prices, but there are limiting factorsBy historical measures, balance sheet suggests better prices, but there are limiting factors

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