111 Nashville Meeting The New Normal David J. LeRoy Judith M. LeRoy For Public Television

222 Nashville Meeting Was This Our Dad? “Old Values?”  A man should work.  A man should maintain his property.  A man should know his tools, and how to use them.  A man should meet his obligations.  A man should stand on his own two feet.  A man shouldn’t complain.

333 Nashville Meeting The Law of Disruption  “technology changes exponentially, but social, economic, and legal systems change incrementally”  It sometimes takes generations to work things out.  Larry Downes The Laws of Disruption

444 Nashville Meeting The New Normal -- Economics  New economic facts of life  Employer/employee assumptions  Toxic tsunamis – foreclosures  Pensions, retirement, safety nets  Unemployment at new highs.

555 Nashville Meeting The New Normal -- Media  Newspapers are dire straits  And magazines…  Remember the CD --OMG Susan Boyle  And the Walkman replaced by MP3 etc  And now the Internet from dial up to ALWAYS ON!!!

666 Nashville Meeting The New Normal -- Convergence  Television would be wiped out like radio  Everything up on the cloud…  Oops  Television viewing has increased and continues to grow…  It was not a zero sum game people just add more media minutes to their day

777 Nashville Meeting The New Normal -- Broadcasting  Almost nine out of ten homes are wired  The number of available channels are in the hundreds  Legacy channels have lost audience  And soon we will have Internet streaming  May you live in interesting times

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999 The New Normal – Tale of 2 Tails  Lot of the viewing disappeared into the long tail…  But remember there is also a fat tail where the networks still get lots of viewing  Now for a new normal from ESPN … you can’t make this stuff up.

10 Nashville Meeting The New Normal – Public Media  Now for Public Television… eroding cumes, eroding GRPs, eroding member base…  Do we need hits like the Antiques Roadshow? 2/3 only view it, nothing else  The “core” that views prime time has about 15 hours of programming a week.

11 Nashville Meeting The Old Mechanical Model

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13 Nashville Meeting The New Normal – Program Norms  Consider how much TV programming has changed in the last 20 years.  Discovery now has to edit the BBC material because its narrative arcs are too long. The new Sherlock anyone?  The core now spends less time with PTV than a generation ago (25% vs 12% of their viewing time).

14 Nashville Meeting The New Normal  Pledge drives… have they, perhaps, worn a bit thin?  Which of our assumptions about the audience and members are still true?  If you keep doing what your doing, you’ll keep getting what you been getting

15 Nashville Meeting Last Touch Point Fallacy  We often think the last touch point before pledging is the cause of the behavior  The law of disruption at work

16 Nashville Meeting Working with the New Normal  How do we strategize for the new normal?  How has the new normal affected viewing and fundraising, especially pledge?  How do we test our assumptions?  That’s what this meeting is all about.

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