US-RUSSIA ARMS CONTROL: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES Steven Pifer Director, Arms Control Initiative March 25, 2013.

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Presentation transcript:

US-RUSSIA ARMS CONTROL: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES Steven Pifer Director, Arms Control Initiative March 25, 2013

New START Limits 1550 deployed strategic warheads 700 deployed strategic delivery vehicles 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers and bombers Limits take full effect in 2018

US, Russian Nuclear Warhead Levels US Russia Deployed strategic * ~1950 ~1740 Nonstrategic ~500 ~2000 Non-deployed (reserve) strategic ~2200 ~700 (~4700) (~4450) Retired warheads ~3000 ~4000 Totalwarheads ~7700 ~8500 * Estimated actual number, not New START accountable number Numbers drawn from Hans M. Kristensen, “Trimming Nuclear Excess: Options for Further Reductions of U.S. and Russian Nuclear Forces”

Big Treaty Limit on each side of no more than total nuclear warheads Covers all except retired weapons Aggregate limit forces trade Sublimit of 1000 deployed strategic warheads Limit of 500 deployed SDVs

Notional Reduction to 2000 Total

Implications for Triad Russians below 500 and headed => ~400 deployed SDVs US could maintain triad at 500: 40 bombers, 192 SLBMs (12 x 16), 268 ICBMs 40 bombers, 160 SLBMs (10 x 16) 300 ICBMs

Major Russian Storage Sites Source: Joshua Handler, Princeton University

US Nuclear Weapons in Europe ~200 US nuclear bombs believed deployed at six sites in five countries Source: Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, “U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2012”

Pentagon-MOD MD Talks Areas of convergence re cooperative NATO-Russia arrangement Transparency Joint exercises Two independent systems interacting Data fusion center Planning and operations center

Russia Under New START New START Numbers, Sept 2012 New START Limit US Russia Deployed strategic delivery vehicles (700) Deployed and non-deployed launchers and bombers (800) Deployed warheads (1550)

US, Russian Nuclear Warhead Levels US Russia Deployed strategic * ~1950 ~1740 Nonstrategic ~500 ~2000 Non-deployed (reserve) strategic ~2200 ~700 Retired warheads ~3000 ~4000 Totalwarheads ~7700 ~8500 * Estimated actual number, not New START accountable number Numbers drawn from Hans M. Kristensen, “Trimming Nuclear Excess: Options for Further Reductions of U.S. and Russian Nuclear Forces”

Verification