Resources and needs for technical support in a Workplan WESTAR-WRAP Working Group June 14, 2007 Tom Moore, WRAP Technical Coordinator

Tribal Perspective on Partnership The WRAP partners have facilitated many successful dialogues on air quality issues The WRAP partners have facilitated many successful dialogues on air quality issues These exchanges have included the regulated and environmental communities, FLMs, EPA, tribes, and states These exchanges have included the regulated and environmental communities, FLMs, EPA, tribes, and states Shared experiences and exchange of cultural values have enhanced air quality efforts by states and tribes to develop regulatory programs and strategies that benefit the environment and solve problems for both tribes and states Shared experiences and exchange of cultural values have enhanced air quality efforts by states and tribes to develop regulatory programs and strategies that benefit the environment and solve problems for both tribes and states

Tribal Caucus/TDDWG list of issues from September 2006 Board Meeting Transport/characterization/impacts of PM in rural communities Transport/characterization/impacts of PM in rural communities PM health impacts and risk analysis PM health impacts and risk analysis Dust emissions and air quality modeling Dust emissions and air quality modeling Climate change – emissions inventories Climate change – emissions inventories Oil and gas development and production emissions Oil and gas development and production emissions Atmospheric deposition – mercury and sulfur/nitrogen Atmospheric deposition – mercury and sulfur/nitrogen PSD consumption – systematic tracking and management PSD consumption – systematic tracking and management Tribal emissions and air quality data Tribal emissions and air quality data Ozone – especially rural areas Ozone – especially rural areas

WRAP Facts – March 2007 Board Meeting Board strongly supports the continuation of WRAP technical and planning support and broadening work beyond haze. Sufficient funds in hand to maintain essential services & do basic support of haze plan implementation through Anticipate some FY08 EPA funding (2009 work). WRAP is fully engaged in The Climate Registry (34 states/3 tribes/2 provinces). CA, OR, WA, AZ, UT, & NM are participating in the Western Climate Initiative. WY and CO are observers. WGA/WRAP staff providing coordination.

National Park Service AQ Priorities* * NPS air quality priorities presented by Chris Shaver at WRAP Board meeting March 8, now that the 2007 haze SIPs are nearing completion. National Park Service air quality priorities: National Park Service air quality priorities: – Rural ozone – Nitrate deposition – Ammonia emissions and sources – International transport (especially toxic & heavy metal pollutants from Asia) State Environmental Commissioners who make up the WRAP Board: State Environmental Commissioners who make up the WRAP Board: – Shared many of these concerns with an emphasis on health effects from PM. – Reiterated that there seems to be no safe concentration of fine particulates so it needs continuing attention – The tribal leaders who were well represented agreed with the health issues, rural ozone, and PM/Dust issues.

Scientific and Technical Foundation Monitoring Emissions Emissions Ambient air quality Ambient air quality Health and exposure Health and exposure Ecosystems Ecosystems Meteorology MeteorologyAnalysis Models (e.g. air quality, emissions) Models (e.g. air quality, emissions) Economics Economics Health and ecological risk assessment Health and ecological risk assessment Research Public health and ecosystem studies Public health and ecosystem studies Laboratory studies (e.g., air chemistry, toxicology) Laboratory studies (e.g., air chemistry, toxicology)Development Source control technology Source control technology Monitoring technology Monitoring technology 2.) Designing and Implementing Control Strategies 3.) Assessing Status and Measuring Progress 1.) Setting Standards and Objectives Emissions trends Air quality trends Health effects trends Ecosystem trends Institutional accountability Emissions standards Ambient air quality standards Reducing acid deposition Reducing regional pollution Protecting visibility Source control technology requirements Emissions caps and trading Voluntary or incentive-based programs Energy efficiency Pollution prevention (e.g., product substitution and process alteration) Compliance assurance Source: National Academy of Science oks/ /html

Diverse interests through the WRAP: progress to reduce emissions

WRAP region NO x emissions by source category

Post-2007 Haze SIP submittal activities EPA SIP review and approval process EPA SIP review and approval process – Data requests – Additional analysis analysis to stay on course analysis to stay on course – Monitoring and emissions trends – Modeling studies 2013 SIP check to verify 2018 target values 2013 SIP check to verify 2018 target values

Annual Costs for WRAP Technical Work Technical Support System (haze implementation, includes IMPROVE monitoring data and emissions tracking) 325,000 Regional Modeling Center (followup haze questions + some other additional studies of other pollutants) 300,000 Emissions Data Management System (tracking for pollutants reported by states and tribes) Emissions Data Management System (tracking for all pollutants reported by states and tribes)150,000 Emissions Projects (studies to fix incomplete data, mostly non-haze for next 2-3 years) 200,000 (expand beyond haze in concert with RMC studies) Monitoring Data Analysis (expand beyond haze in concert with RMC studies)100,000 Technical Data & Analysis Support subtotal 1,075,000 Staff + Project Management (travel, meetings, etc.) 300,000 Total$1,375,000

Details of Future Technical Support 1) Haze Implementation 2) Related regional analyses for other pollutants 3) WRAP tools for haze: ready to expand to other pollutants

2007 Haze SIP + actions needed for ‘13 SIP check toward ‘18 SIP revision) Narrative Measures Visibility conditions ( baseline) Current Natural Emissions (mostly 2002) Point Area Mobile Fire, Dust, et cetera International Emissions (2018) Visibility Goals (2018) 2013 SIP Check Approach Monitoring Data Trends Emissions Trends In-state* All contributing states Other (fire, dust, international) On-The-Books Specific to RHR BART Other point ? Area ? Smoke Management ? Same categories as 2002, based on Federal Programs, other State rules, plus BART and any additional measures (growth/control projections for some categories, others held constant) Estimated using modeling of the “Reasonable Progress” strategies for most and least impaired days, then adjusted using monitoring Relative Response Factors – exact value of final visibility goals are SIP decisions by each state Review completeness and trends in monitoring data Based on latest & best regional emissions inventories: 1) Examine how trends in various emissions types and scales compares with the narrative prepared for SIP submittal* 2) Examine what is “now” On-The-Books and re-project ) Adjust SIP (measures and / or goal) Identify needs for comprehensive regional emissions tracking and complete/representative Class I area monitoring data Assess post-2013 need for additional regional analysis and planning to begin now for 2018 SIP submittal  These measures may include non-BART emissions limits, emission limits on source categories, and modification to smoke management plans, et cetera.  * – This analysis for the 2013 SIP check will establish accountability for emissions reductions/management strategies for that state identified in each 2007 haze SIP – did they track as anticipated? The 2007 SIP should require the state to complete a review of its emissions and spell out the circumstances of how a SIP revision prior to 2018 would be triggered. If things have changed enough, that State needs to re-do the projections based on its changed emissions and either re-affirm that it will be on target for 2018, or make the needed changes to emissions strategies and / or the SIP RP goals written into each state’s 2007 SIP.

Diverse interests through the WRAP: progress to reduce emissions New EPA standards for engines and fuel will greatly reduce emissions from mobile sources. Mobile sources are the largest source of nitrogen oxide emissions in the West. These new standards will reduce mobile source emissions of nitrogen oxides by 70% over the next 15 years, even as the West continues to grow. Western states/tribes/FLMs are improving their smoke management programs to ensure that air quality impacts are minimized when prescribed burns are necessary on public and private land. The WRAP is implementing a fire tracking system to help land managers and air quality planners manage controllable smoke impacts on a regional basis.

12/07 Regional Haze Plans will address the long- standing issue of emissions from grandfathered sources, including SO2 emission reductions as well as BART reductions for NOx. Phases I and II of a regional inventory of haze- causing emissions from oil and gas sources WRAP providing direct assistance to state and local governments and fleet owners in an effort to reduce diesel emissions through retrofit programs. Diverse interests through the WRAP: progress to reduce emissions

Beyond Regional Haze implementation, a variety of air quality management challenges remain Some are locally-oriented such as exceeding the 24- hour PM standard along the Wasatch Front or other populated areas Some are locally-oriented such as exceeding the 24- hour PM standard along the Wasatch Front or other populated areas – What is the regional contribution to a local problem? Others have been scoped out as sub-regional Others have been scoped out as sub-regional – 4 Corners AQ Task Force, NE UT/SW WY rural ozone, et cetera Also important to continue to analyze and understand the regional response to emissions control and management programs over time Also important to continue to analyze and understand the regional response to emissions control and management programs over time – Haze, ozone, acid deposition, mercury, greenhouse gases, et cetera

WRAP has built a useful and robust technical support capability Haze monitoring data analysis efforts Haze monitoring data analysis efforts Emissions data at appropriate spatial, temporal, and chemistry scales Emissions data at appropriate spatial, temporal, and chemistry scales – Tribal Emissions Inventory Software Solution (TEISS) – Emissions Data Management System (EDMS) – Fire Emissions Tracking System (FETS) Modeling assistance by RMC Modeling assistance by RMC Visualization and data analysis of regionally consistent data and information in the TSS Visualization and data analysis of regionally consistent data and information in the TSS

Technical air quality studies using WRAP data – a working list Rocky Mountain National Park Sulfur and Nitrogen Study (RoMANS) – National Park Service and State of Colorado Rocky Mountain National Park Sulfur and Nitrogen Study (RoMANS) – National Park Service and State of Colorado Rural Ozone Impacts from Oil & Gas emissions in the 4 Corners Region – NPS modeling study Rural Ozone Impacts from Oil & Gas emissions in the 4 Corners Region – NPS modeling study Rural Ozone Impacts from Oil & Gas in northeast UT/southwest WY – States of Utah and Wyoming Rural Ozone Impacts from Oil & Gas in northeast UT/southwest WY – States of Utah and Wyoming Emissions reductions options analysis – 4 Corners AQ Task Force Cumulative Effects WG Emissions reductions options analysis – 4 Corners AQ Task Force Cumulative Effects WG Pilot Dust Regional Haze SIP for Salt Creek Wilderness – State of New Mexico Pilot Dust Regional Haze SIP for Salt Creek Wilderness – State of New Mexico Nested BART CalPuff modeling using regional modeling data as background – State of North Dakota Nested BART CalPuff modeling using regional modeling data as background – State of North Dakota 2018 emissions projections as basis for Columbia Gorge air quality planning 2018 emissions projections as basis for Columbia Gorge air quality planning Providing consistent, free data for permit analyses by sources and consulting firms Providing consistent, free data for permit analyses by sources and consulting firms

WRAP Technical Data Support Centers Visibility Information Exchange Web System (VIEWS): VIEWS provides on-line access to monitoring data, research results and special studies related to visibility. Regional Modeling Center: The WRAP’s Regional Modeling Center at the University of California Riverside provides state and tribal agencies with sophisticated modeling of regional haze and other air quality parameters in the Western United States. Emissions Data Management System: An emission inventory data warehouse for states and tribes. The system provides a consistent, complete and regional approach to emissions data management and tracking. Causes of Haze Assessment: A detailed analysis of ambient monitoring data for regional haze in the WRAP region. The Technical Support System integrates a number of different data support resources under one web-based decision support umbrella.

Current WRAP Data Support Centers drive the TSS for haze, expand to other pollutants Data Centers Data Centers Planning/Decision Tool & Summary Data Haze monitoring data Modeling analysis results Emissions data Monitoring analysis results