NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/ North Atlantic Ocean climate variability and its impact on heat stress exposure in urban areas: case studies and user requirements Catherine Stevens, Project manager and GIS expert, GIM

Agenda UHI and mapping heat impact on health: brief reminder Selection of 3 end users: short description June st end user: Berlin and Antwerp September Meeting the 3rd end user: Almada Work in progress and planning NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/20132

Agenda UHI and mapping heat impact on health: brief reminder Selection of 3 end users: short description June st end user : Berlin and Antwerp September Meeting the 3rd end user : Almada Work in progress and planning NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/20133

UHI prediction CMIP5 UrbClim socio-economic health effects heat stress exposure stratified by population, housing conditions, etc… city selection observations NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/20134 UHI and mapping heat impact on health

Heat stress High temperatures and humidity stress the body's ability to cool itself, and heat illness becomes a special concern during hot weather. Some factors increase the risk of heat stress –Old people –Single –Sick –Being hospitalized –… Heat stress depends on several factors NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/20135 UHI and mapping heat impact on health

Climatic parameters –Temperature (e.g. apparent max t°) and humidity –Temperature variability (day max t°, night min t°, interval, duration) –Wind speed and direction… Urban morphology parameters –City centre vs residential area –Green area and water place –Open space, street canyon –Buildings variables (material, albedo, orientation…)… Demographic, socio-economic and health parameters –Age and gender –Marital Status –Economic status and educational level –Health conditions, medication and disease… NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/20136

UHI and mapping heat impact on health Results of Urban Heat Island model + Exposure indicators (Climatic, Urban morphology, Demographic / Socio-economic, Health) Exposure Maps NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/20137

UHI and mapping heat impact on health Indoor thermal condition in urban heat island – development of a predictive tool, Parham A. Mirzaeia, Fariborz Haghighata NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/20138

UHI and mapping heat impact on health Map of the statistical district of Melbourne showing the weighted vulnerability index for each postal area, on hot days –Combined demographic, socioeconomic, health, environmental variables  vulnerability index NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/

Agenda UHI and mapping heat impact on health: brief reminder Selection of 3 end users: short description June st end user : Berlin and Antwerp September Meeting the 3rd end user : Almada Work in progress and planning NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201310

Selection of 3 end users Selection of number of relevant stakeholders –Interested in benefiting from an analysis of the impacts of climate change on their urban dimension  Three European cities –Antwerp (BE) –Berlin (DE) –Almada (PT) NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201311

Selection of 3 end users Antwerp (BE) −Major port −Population density 2,500/km 2 −20% green and blue urban areas −Maritime temperate climate Berlin (DE) −Metropolis counting 3.5 million inhabitants −Population density 3,700/km 2 −20-29 % green and blue urban areas −Warm-Summer Continental climate Almada (PT) −Small city densely populated −Nearby Lisbon metropolis −Population density is 2,355 / km 2 −Mediterranean climate and close to Atlantic ocean NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201312

Agenda UHI and mapping heat impact on health: brief reminder Selection of 3 end users: short description June st end user : Berlin and Antwerp September Meeting the 3rd end user : Almada Work in progress and planning NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201313

June st end user : Berlin and Antwerp Themes and services identified –Scenario linked to urban planning: the effect of UHI today and in the future on urban planning –Scenario using existing urban plans/projects Impacts of green roofs linked to green roof potential map/plan ( ) Impacts of change albedo (reflectivity) of buildings (roofs…) … –Scenario using projected population figures Densification population and new settlements Vulnerable population (school and old people) … –Impact of city expansion on climate change (e.g. projected LULC) NACLIM: Almada end-user workshop /09/201314

June st end user : Berlin and Antwerp Time frame to be used in simulation are –Current situation ( ) –Mid term ( ) –Long term prediction (2100) Resolution vs extent –Larger extent (full city) with 250 m resolution –Smaller extent (part of city) with 100 m resolution Seasonal studies Summer “Winter” NACLIM: Almada end-user workshop /09/201315

June st end user : Berlin and Antwerp NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201316

Agenda UHI and mapping heat impact on health: brief reminder Selection of 3 end users: short description June st end user : Berlin and Antwerp September Meeting the 3rd end user : Almada Work in progress and planning NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201317

September 2013 : Almada end user workshop Themes and services identified –Identify hotspots in city –Population exposure to heat waves For ex. Last summer heat wave (2013) – Prediction/projection for 2100 as a help to downscale adaptation –Possible to identify 3 spots in the city for high resolution study to make diagnose  out of the scope of NACLIM NACLIM: Almada end-user workshop report /09/201318

September 2013 : Almada end user workshop Almada meteorological station visit NACLIM: Almada end-user workshop report /09/201319

Agenda UHI and mapping heat impact on health: brief reminder Selection of 3 end users: short description June st end user: Berlin and Antwerp September Meeting the 3rd end user: Almada Work in progress and planning NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201320

Work in progress UHI modelling: UrbClim pre-processing input data –Variables/parameters Current work : –Planar area Index (PAI): proportion of area covered by buildings per grid cell –Frontal area indexes (FAI): area of buildings projected into the plane normal to the incoming wind direction and is a function of orientation per grid cell –Average building height weighted with the building area and its variance –Sky view factor (SVF) Outstanding work:% urban land use, land use type, % vegetation … NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201321

Work in progress Berlin end-user case –Available data 3D building layers Street network –Study extent = Vito grid Not full building coverage –Extrapolation of PAI and FAI  Evaluation of relationship at 1km resolution between EEA SS and PAI/FAI NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201322

Work in progress PAI and EEA SS NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201323

Work in progress EEA SS and PAI Relationship NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201324

Work in progress FAI and EEA SS NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201325

Work in progress NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/ EEA SS and PAI Relationship

Work in progress PAI Extrapolation on the full coverage NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201327

Planning NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201328

NACLIM: Almada end-user workshop /09/ Questions? Don’t hesitate to ask! GIM nv/sa Researchpark Haasrode 1505 Interleuvenlaan 5 B-3001 Leuven (Heverlee) tel: fax: website:

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP ), under grant agreement n NACLIM NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201330