Lubricant Test Monitoring System (LTMS) Quick Deck Draft 3 March 2, 2012

Quick Deck Explanation The LTMS Task Force Statistics Task Group is looking at LTMS in preparation for the new categories, GF-6 and PC-11. The next slide proposes goals for LTMS. We seek concurrence or suggested alternatives. The core of our current approach is presented in the following nine slides. More extensive descriptions and discussions are available from the task group. We welcome you input and participation. Please contact: Jim Rutherford, LTMS Task Force Statistics Task Group Leader Tel /2/20122LTMS TF Statistics Task Group Leader

LTMS Goals o Assist the industry in leveling the playing field for candidate oil performance testing o Promote reliability, integrity, and efficiency of testing o Encourage on target results o Strive for standardization across test types with guidelines and criteria defined for deviations o Generate appropriate confidence about where a lab or stand is on the performance scale relative to the rest of the industry o Eliminate incentives for inappropriate engineering judgments Are these the goals for LTMS that everyone can support? 3/2/20123LTMS TF Statistics Task Group Leader

Severity Adjustment Entity (Lab or Stand) EWMA Target Difference between reference result and current severity estimate Difference between current severity estimate and target With predetermined conditions, run another reference Run another reference Reduce calibration period Apply severity adjustment 3/2/20124LTMS TF Statistics Task Group Leader

Reference Entity Formulae For each severity adjustment entity, T i = i th test result in appropriate units Y i = i th standardized test result where target and standard deviation are as currently defined for the reference oil used in the reference test 3/2/20125LTMS TF Statistics Task Group Leader

Reference Entity Formulae (continued) For each severity adjustment entity, Z i = EWMA e i = prediction error from EWMA 3/2/20126LTMS TF Statistics Task Group Leader

Reference Entity Chart Actions If prediction error is: Outside level 3 limits, run another reference Outside level 2 limits, reduce calibration period Outside level 1 limits with pre-determined conditions (such as hardware changes), run another reference If EWMA (estimate of severity) is: Outside level 2 limits, run another reference Outside level 1 limits, apply severity adjustment 3/2/20127LTMS TF Statistics Task Group Leader

Industry Difference between current severity estimate and target Target surveillance panel investigates and pursues resolution TMC investigates communicates as appropriate 3/2/20128LTMS TF Statistics Task Group Leader

Industry Formulae For the entire industry, T i = i th test result in appropriate units Y i = i th standardized test result where target and standard deviation are as currently defined for the reference oil used in the reference test 3/2/20129LTMS TF Statistics Task Group Leader

Industry Formulae (continued) For each severity adjustment entity, Z i = EWMA 3/2/201210LTMS TF Statistics Task Group Leader

Industry Chart Actions If an EWMA (estimate of severity) is: Outside level 2 limits, TMC informs the surveillance panel that the limit has been exceeded. The surveillance panel then investigates and pursues resolution of the alarm. Outside level 1 limits, the TMC investigates whether severity adjustments are adequately addressing the trend, investigates the possible causes, and communicates as appropriate with industry. 3/2/201211LTMS TF Statistics Task Group Leader

Annual Review The Technical Guidance Committee (TGC) will organize and conduct annual reviews of the LTMS system in its entirety. Surveillance Panel chairmen are ex officio members of the TGC. The chairmen should prepare with their surveillance panel for these reviews. As part of this preparation, the surveillance panel together with the TMC will review data to determine if any laboratory or laboratories exhibit(s) unusual performance. Such unusual performance might include but will not be limited to severity differences from other laboratories, poor relative precision, high invalid rates, and etcetera. Concerns identified in LTMS data and in the LTMS process should be brought forward to the TGC annual review meetings. 3/2/201212LTMS TF Statistics Task Group Leader