DISASTER PREPAREDNESS A KEY ELEMENT OF BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

A FOCUS ON THE NEED FOR WIND INSURANCE A Mechanism to spread Risk and Accelerate Recovery A KEY PART OF DISASTER PREPAREDNESS

PURPOSE: I nsurance provides a safety net by spreading the risk and accelerating recovery.

HAZARDSHAZARDS ELEMENTS OF RISK EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT CAUSE RECURRING DAMAGE AND LOSS PATTERNS SEVERE WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES FLOODS WINTER STORMS HAIL FIRE HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR: CITIES, INSURERS, AND BUSINESS ENTERPRISE GOAL: REDUCE KNOWN VULNERABILITYIES

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION SEVERE WINDSTORMS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK SEVERE WINDSTORM RISK REDUCTION PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY FOUR PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE Wind profile Storm Hazards: -Wind pressure -Surge -Rain -Flood -Waves -Salt water -Missiles -TornadoesOceanOcean Gradient Wind

DISASTERS OCCUR WHEN--- A CITY’S (COMMUNITY’S) PUBLIC POLICIES LEAVE IT … UN—PREPARED FOR A SEVERE WINDSTORM

GLOBAL GOAL: FROM UN—PREPARED TO A STATE OF PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL CITIES AND ALL NATURAL HAZARDS

SEVERE WINDSTORMS

ATLANTIC BASIN SEVERE WINDSTORMS (TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES) HIGHEST PRIORITY: PROTECTION OF THE CITY’S BUILDINGS AND INFRA- STRUCTURE FROM WIND AND ASSO- CIATED POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS

STATES IMPACTED BY THE 1974 TORNADO OUTBREAK: APRIL 3-4 Illinois Indiana Ohio Kentucky Michigan Tennessee

SEVERE WINDSTORMS (TYPHOONS) HIGHEST PRIORITY: PROTECTION OF THE COMMUNITY’S BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE FROM WIND AND THE ASSOCIATED RAIN FALL.

THE REALITY CHECK PROVIDED BY SEVERE WINDSTORMS Source: Munich Re and others

PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS FLORIDA HURRICANE ANDREW, CASUALTIES $ 27,000 M+ LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES) $ UNCERTAIN INSURED LOSS

HURRICANE ANDREW

HURRICANE ANDREW BOAT DAMAGE

PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS HOUSTON, TEXAS (USA) 2001 TROPICAL STORM ALLISON 25 CASUALTIES $ 6,000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES) $ 3,500 M INSURED LOSS

THE NEED FOR WIND INSURANCE

WIND AND WATER PENETRATE BUILDING ENVELOPE SEVERE WINDSTORMS SEVERE WINDSTORMS UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES WINDOWS STORM SURGE AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN POOR WORKMANSHIP FAILURE OF NON- STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER CASE HISTORIES

SEVERE WINDSTORMS AND INSURANCE Severe windstorms, like floods, are considered to be insurable, although the uncertainty in risk assessments for wind is greater than that for floods.

Individual Modeled Events Event Probability Dollars of Loss 1% 1/100 Threshol d Event Individual Modeled Events 1% Tail of the Distribution MODELED DAMAGE DISTRIBUTION FOR ALL EXPOSURES AND ALL EVENTS Total Area Under Curve = EAL for Entire Portfolio of Risks Layers & Slices = Retentions and Transferred Amounts

ACTUAL COST The actual cost (risk) to the insurance company is determined after the product is sold and the severe windstorm has occurred, not before.

SURVIVAL: SEVERE WINDSTORMS EXCELLENT WARNING SYSTEMS AND EVACUATION PLANS FACILITATE MOVING PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY. SURVIVAL DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION, OF THE BUILDINGS AND THEIR DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION TO WITHSTAND HIGH WINDS.

SEVERE WINDSTORMS ECONOMIC LOSS DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE AND THEIR DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION TO WITHSTAND HIGH WINDS.

LOSS OF LIFE LOSS OF LIFE LARGE LOSS OF LIFE IS NOW RARE DUE TO EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION LONG BEFORE A SEVERE WINDSTORM MAKES LANDFALL.

ECONOMIC LOSS ECONOMIC LOSS ANNUAL ECONOMIC LOSS TO COMMUNITY BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE IS HIGH, NOW REACHING TENS OF $ BILLIONS, IN MANY OF THE SEASON’S TROPICAL STORMS, HURRICANES, AND TYPHOON.

DAMAGE AND ECONOMIC LOSSES DAMAGE AND ECONOMIC LOSSES BUSINESS INTERRUPTION DURING AND FOLLOWING A SEVERE WINDSTORM IS A MAJOR SOURCE OF ECONOMIC LOSS.

EVERY CITY CAN MAKE ITS CITY MORE DISASTER RESILIENT THAN IT WAS IN THE PAST STEP 1: LEARN FROM THE PAST STEP 2: REDUCE COMMUNITY VULNERABILITIES THAT INCREASE RISK FOR PEOPLE, PROPERTY, AND INFRASTRUCTURE