ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein Tank & Elisa Manzini.

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Presentation transcript:

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein Tank & Elisa Manzini

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein Tank & Elisa Manzini Objective:to perform a comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the ensemble simulation/prediction system against observations/analyses

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 Achievements With some delay, all RT5 deliverables and milestones are met

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 Achievements With some delay, all RT5 deliverables and milestones are met

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 Achievements With some delay, all RT5 deliverables and milestones are met global multidecadal global s2d regional multidecadal impact models

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 Evaluation of global models used in multidecadal simulations (RT2a) –D5.15:impact of improved land-surface physics on the simulation of the Boreal summer surface climate (INGV) Achievements global multidecadal

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 Evaluation of forecast quality with global models in s2d simulations (RT2a) –D5.11: representation of the tropical intra seasonal variability and its impact on seasonal predictability (IPSL) –D5.12: predictability in perfect-model mode over the North Atlantic/European sector (IfM) Achievements global multidecadal global s2d

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 Evaluation of regional models used in multidecadal simulations, with focus on extremes (RT2b and RT3) –D5.18:ENSEMBLES daily gridded dataset for Europe (UEA) –D5.20: observational station data collected for the ENSEMBLES daily gridded dataset for Europe (KNMI) Achievements global multidecadal global s2d regional multidecadal

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 Evaluation of impact models (RT6) –D5.13:challenges of interpreting and application of an ensemble of imperfect models on seasonal time scales (LSE) Achievements global multidecadal global s2d regional multidecadal impact models

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 Some examples: Achievements global multidecadal global s2d regional multidecadal impact models

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 GCM representation of vertical circulation regimes (ω500 dynamical proxy) for tropical eastern Pacific -> double ITCZ syndrome (INGV)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 Evaluation of DEMETER Asian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability ISV (Xavier, LMD)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 KNMI Climate Explorer  ENSEMBLES data server (climexp.knmi.nl by Van Oldenborgh, KNMI) Select data in the Climate Explorer Data is retrieved from ECMWF s2d server with OpenDAP Available for analysis, e.g. skill scores

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 ECMWF UKMO Multi-model (equal weights) RPSS D T2m JJA forecast, ini: May, DEMETER, cross-validation using modified ranked probability skill score RPSS (Weigel et al., MeteoSwiss)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 ECMWF UKMO Multi-model (weighted + climatology) (more orange + no blue) RPSS D T2m JJA forecast, ini: May, DEMETER, cross-validation using modified ranked probability skill score RPSS (Weigel et al., MeteoSwiss)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 ECA dataset for gridding (KNMI and MeteoSwiss)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 ECA dataset for gridding (KNMI and MeteoSwiss)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 ECA dataset for gridding (KNMI and MeteoSwiss)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 Best gridding method for daily rainfall (Hofstra et al., Oxford Univ. and Haylock et al., Univ. of East Anglia)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 Comparison with existing daily datasets (Hofstra et al., Oxford University) Compound relative error score CRE Daily precipitation

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 Comparison with ERA40 (Hofstra et al., Oxford University) Daily Tmax RMSE

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 ECMWF seasonal forecast storms, %total insured value SwissRe portfolio (Della-Marta & Liniger, MeteoSwiss)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 Verification of wheat yield at the Bologna University experimental farm forecasted with DEMETER downscaled input (ARPA)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 Plans Another 16 deliverables until the end of the project, including all-GCM evaluation efforts Start of more regional work now that the RT5 observational data set and the RCM data are available Note that good access to all data remains essential for RT5!

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 RT5 review Taken up the recommendation to further integrate RT5 work within ENSEMBLES: –Monday workshop on RCM and SDS evaluation (together with RT2b and RT3) –Thursday workshop on model error (with RT4) –Thursday workshop on weighting, credibility and reliability (with RT3; Geert Lenderink)