The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

This presentation What is a Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA)? What’s involved in the SE London SHMA? A few headline findings Possible relevance to Social Care and Health Sector

What is a SHMA? A more comprehensive approach to what would previously have been Housing Needs Surveys or Housing Requirements Studies. Covered by Government Advice – Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3) and SHMA guidance. A key part of the Planning evidence base e.g. for ‘Core Strategies’/Local Development Framework Focus on sub regional housing markets. Strictly speaking there’s no such thing as a borough level SHMA.

Typical of inclusion in a SHMA…. BexleyBromleyGreenwichLewishamSouthwark Market 8791,1553,1472,2613,010 Intermediate , ,676 Social 5821,1513,8311,6232,465 TOTAL 1,7252,42510,0504,8758,150 Market 51.0%47.6%31.3%46.4%36.9% Intermediate 15.3%4.9%30.6%20.3%32.8% Social 33.7%47.5%38.1%33.3%30.2%

What’s involved in the SE London SHMA? The same contractor was commissioned by each borough to complete a borough level study – and a sub regional SHMA. A “daisy chain” approach to procurement, with contractor Opinion Research Services (ORS) rolling from one borough to the next. It’s based on 7500 household interviews in 5 SE London boroughs, using the same questionnaire and consistent methodology.

What’s involved in the SE London SHMA? It includes secondary data, stakeholder groups and interviews – and some complex modelling. Overseen by a steering group of LA housing and planning officers + GOL and GLA. ORS also completed a London SHMA based on secondary data. A 2 tier but consistent approach.

The SE London SHMA – a suite of reports Key findings Core Data Sub Groups * Summary of stakeholder work Technical Appendix Executive Summary

The SE London SHMA – sub group reports 1. Older People 2. BME 3. Families 4. Younger people 5. Students 6. Migrant (A10) workers 7. Health & support needs 8. Private Rented Sector 9. Public Sector Workers 10. Requirement for social rent 11. Requirement for owner occupation 12. Requirement for PRS 13. Requirement for intermediate housing

An illustration of how mobility defines a sub regional housing market…… Shows clear flows from central boroughs to suburbs and beyond. Little cross river movement SE London extending into Kent SE London & Kent mirrored by East London and Essex. Commuting patterns not dissimilar

Source: NHS Central Register

Some of the lessons It’s underpinned by understanding demographics, in particular mobility and migration. A London housing market does not act in the classical supply and demand way. More supply may just result in more demand, since: Households move into an area to access supply and then bring their own needs as they expand, break up, age etc etc. Different sections of the market are more mobile

Some of the lessons Social housing tenants are the least mobile section – and becoming more so as turnover reduces. It’s not social housing tenants or applicants who move to access new supply. Most mobile section is in private rented sector. This sector has expanded greatly in SE London since 2001 and private renters are the group most responsive to new supply (e.g. Buy to Let) Owner occupied sector is diminishing particularly owner occupiers with mortgages.

Housing Tenure Source: Census 2001, SHMA 2008 Preliminary Analysis

Some of the lessons In SE London, the groups moving in and moving out of the sub region have different profiles: INOUT YoungerOlder Single peopleFamilies and couples Private rentersOwner occupiers Significant BMEPredominantly White From overseas and LondonTo rest of UK Slightly higher incomes

Another illustration of mobility/migration SE London gained (net) population from: 1. Lambeth 10, Tower Hamlets2, Wandsworth2,610 All the Top 10 are in London (2002-7, ONS data)

Understanding the sub regional housing market SE London lost (net) population to: 1. Dartford6, Sevenoaks5, Medway5,290 (All the Top 10 are in Kent) (2002-7, ONS data)

Some headline findings Ethnicity of SE London population is changing rapidly but may not be characteristic of London. Black African has grown significantly Asian shows few signs of increasing. Very marked differences between inner and outer London.

Some headline findings Private Rented Sector has grown significantly but growth of population of HB dependent tenants in PRS less so. PRS has potential to cater for a growing number of households, but many landlords still reluctant to take people on HB/LHA.

Some headline findings Examples of some wild cards: 1. Students 2. Transport 3. Employment Borough boundaries are irrelevant to all of these, but they can greatly influence the housing market.

Some headline findings 19% of the population reported a ‘health problem’ and 27% of households. Most housing problems relating to health can be solved in situ but about 1000 social housing tenants need to move.

Some headline findings 12.7% of the population is over 65 but this is increasing. 63% of the increase will be in Bromley+ Bexley. BME pensioner population due to increase but 30% currently appear to be part of extended households pensioner households require adaptations for mobility needs to be met; 400 need to move.

Relevance to Social Care and Health sector? Reports are fairly large – but more analysis can still be done Probably the most household data since 2001 census Held as a data set that can be shared with colleagues. Other sources of housing data may be relevant too – e.g. modelling of private housing stock condition

…and finally If the market and how we look at it is sub regional, are the solutions all sub regional too?