The Economic Outlook for U.S. Cotton 2004 Prepared by Economic Services Gary Adams Steve Slinsky Shawn Boyd Michelle Huffman

Macroeconomic Environment

Change in U.S. Real GDP

Civilian Unemployment Rate

Manufacturing Employment

Consumer Price Index for Apparel

U.S. Federal Budget Surplus as Projected by CBO

CBO Ag Baseline Spending

Euro (Currency per U.S. Dollar)

Real Exchange Rate Index (Other Important Trade Partners, Source – Federal Reserve )

Ag Prices Received Index

U.S. Net Farm Income

U.S. Cotton Supply

U.S. Upland Planted Area

U.S. ELS Planted Area

U.S. Cotton Yield

U.S. Cotton Supply

Southeast Mid-South Southwest West U.S Southeast Mid-South Southwest West U.S Crop Staple and Strength Yr. StapleStrength 5-Yr.

Southeast Mid-South Southwest West U.S Southeast Mid-South Southwest West U.S Crop Color and Mike Yr. %SLM+Micronair e 5-Yr.

December Cotton Futures Cents per Pound

December Corn Futures Cents per Bushel

November Soybean Futures Cents per Bushel

Southeast3,038 3, Mid-South 3,575 3, Southwest5,870 6, West ALL UPLAND 13,304 14, ALL ELS ALL COTTON13,483 14, Southeast3,038 3, Mid-South 3,575 3, Southwest5,870 6, West ALL UPLAND 13,304 14, ALL ELS ALL COTTON13,483 14, U.S. Planting Intentions % Actual Intended Change Actual Intended Change % Actual Intended Change Actual Intended Change Thousand Acres

U.S. Cotton Supply

U.S. Cotton Demand

U.S. Retail Fiber Consumption

Cotton’s Share of Fiber Consumption

U.S. Retail Cotton Consumption

U.S. Cotton Textile Imports

U.S. Cotton Content in Textile Imports

U.S. Cotton Textile Trade with Mexico

U.S. Cotton Textile Trade with CBI

U.S. Cotton Textile Imports from China

U.S. Textile Imports from China (China Textile Safeguard Categories)

Cotton Product Imports from Vietnam

U.S. Cotton Mill Use (Calendar Year, Million Bales)

U.S. Cotton Mill Use (Crop Year, Million Bales)

The World Market & U.S. Cotton Exports

China Cotton Supply & Use

World Cotton Production

Change in ‘04 Cotton Production Up 10.1 mil bales relative to 2003

World Fiber Demand

World Cotton Mill Use

Change in ‘04 Cotton Mill Use Up 1.1 mil bales relative to 2003

Foreign Cotton Production & Use

U.S. Cotton Exports

World Cotton Ending Stocks

Cotton Stocks/Use (World less China)

Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Mill Use Exports Total Offtake Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio21.9%25.1% U.S. Supply and Demand Million Bales 2003/042004/05

Beginning Stocks Production Imports Mill Use Exports Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio33.3%37.4% World Supply and Demand Million Bales 2003/042004/05

Cotton Gross Receipts (Cents/Lb)

Merchants Ginners Crushers Producers Cooperatives Warehouses Manufacturers Bound Copies of the Outlook are Available at the Close of this Session