An overview 9 th September 2009 Families with Children Projection Model: From ONS Projections to DWP Policy.

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Presentation transcript:

An overview 9 th September 2009 Families with Children Projection Model: From ONS Projections to DWP Policy

2 Introduction ONS produce: - National Population Projections - Marital/cohabiting Population Projections - Parity Projections DWP require projected numbers of lone parents and couples with dependent children for: - FRS grossing factors - Income Support for Lone Parents benefit expenditure forecasting - Child Maintenance eligible population

3 Stock-based model providing numbers of lone parents and couples with dependent children, split by: Male/Female Single year of age: Marital/partnership status GB-based Projected from 2008/09 – 2074/75 Summary

4 Age-specific Proportions LFS spring data from 1997 to the latest year Nine groups of marital status and family types derived: Single-living alone Single-cohabiting Married/separated-living alone Married-cohabiting Separated-cohabiting Widowed-living alone Widowed-cohabiting Divorced-living alone Divorced-cohabiting

5 Population Projections by marital/partnership status ONS marital/cohabiting projections (2003-based) Updated for actual numbers to 2005 Proportions from 2003 applied to 2006-based National Population Projections Legal Marital Status Cohabiting StatusNever Married MarriedSeparatedWidowedDivorced Need consistent nine groups by marital status and family type: Married/separated living alone Married living with spouse

6 Population Projections by marital/partnership status

7 Fertility Adjustment Factor Parity estimates produced by ONS. For England and Wales, but provide proxy projections for the proportions of females with dependent children for GB for each female cohort. Fertility Adjustment Factor Attempt to mimic the delay in child birth commonly observed across cohorts in recent years and apply this to the projections. Male fertility adjustment factor assumed to be a 3 years older than for females. Apply ‘best fit’ distribution for dependents under a certain age ONS Parity – age of oldest child vs. LFS – age of youngest child

8 Fertility Adjustment Factor

9 Summary of calculation

10 Summary of calculation RAW PROJECTIONS Population with Dependent Children Projections: LFS proportions split by marital status x ONS Female Marital Population Projections x ONS Female Fertility Adjustments Factors ‘BEST’ ESTIMATE TOTAL Population with Dependent Children Projections: LFS Total Females proportions x ONS Female Total Population Projections x ONS Female Fertility Adjustments Factors DIFFERENCE Reallocated Total Numbers (actual years) minus Total LFS Number (actual years) REALLOCATION PROJECTIONS Apply difference proportionately to ‘single – living alone’ and ‘single – cohabiting’ ALIGNED PROJECTIONS Apply pooled alignment factor to all categories DIFFERENCE Total population projections minus Total sum of split by marital status

11 Family Resources Survey (FRS) Team Grossing factor for lone parents Poverty Team Numbers of lone parents Forecasters of Income Support for Lone Parents Look at those with dependents aged under 19, 16, 12 and 7 Child Maintenance Support/Strategy Teams Family formation/future workload Model Development Teams Provides source of inputs for family structure/validation tool Users

12 Future Work Short-term Update with: Spring 2009 LFS data 2006-based Marital/cohabiting status Population Projections 2008-based National Population Projections Long-term Convert the FWC model to a microsimulation model