The Future of Food – Production and Security David Castle Chair of Innovation in the Life Sciences

Key Messages Demands on agriculture are mounting Agriculture is going to be increasingly technically complex Productivity gains are not the sole issue Responses to challenges have to be systematic and multi-level Well-integrated policies are needed Close(r) partnerships between government, academe and private sector are needed to mobilise knowledge within the UK and beyond

The Food Security Problem Who is affected and how: ~ 1 billion people (macronutrient deficiency) ~ 2 billion (macro and micronutrient deficiency) ~ 1 billion (excessive caloric intake; poor diet) Layers: Household / community / city / regional / national / global Dynamics: Productivity / prices / sustainability / resilience / population / climate All food security is relative to something or some factors; there is no absolute food security. Even in the UK shortages would occur with a transportation strike of > 3 days

Future of Food – Drivers of Change Global population increase Changes in the size and nature of per capita demand Future governance of the food system nationally and internationally Climate change Competition for key resources Changes in values and ethical stances of consumers These are the key drivers from the report and we’ll focus on climate change (4) as it relates to (3) governance issues

GHG – IPCC 2007 From the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The conventional estimate for global agriculture contributions to GHGs is 14%, and the next slide shows in greater detail where it all comes from.

GHG - 1 http://earthtrendsdelivered.org/node/161 This is the 2005 version. There is a 2000 version for comparison. There is transportation and other uses of fuels that create the CO2 emissions so the agriculture line could be a bit bigger.

GHG – Industry http://earthtrendsdelivered.org/node/161 Here the issue is that the EU 27 is not innocent in total outputs although the per capita output isn’t as bad as, say, Canada or S. Arabia.

GHG - Agriculture http://earthtrendsdelivered.org/node/161 In this case the top emitters per capita tend to be countries with a lot of livestock but fairly low population – Australia and Argentina and Canada. The per capita outputs in the EU are fairly low – in fact lower than the total output for the EU27 but higher in the UK.

World Bank Development Report 2010 Good times for temperate climes but get an army.

FAO World Food Prices (1) Increases and volatility – products of globalisation and also the impact of climate and trade

FAO World Food Prices (2)

FAO World Food Prices (3)

Former Trade – Offs …. Productivity vs. Sustainability Quantity of Food vs. Quality of Food Food vs. Energy Exploit Water Resources vs. Protect Water Resources Local vs. Global Me / Us vs. You / Them

…. New Complementarities Productivity and Sustainability Quantity of Food and Quality of Food Food and Energy Exploit Water Resources and Protect Water Resources Local and Global Me / Us and You / Them

Policy Implications “The solution is not just to produce more food, or change diets, or eliminate waste. The potential threats are so great that they cannot be met by making changes piecemeal to parts of the food system. It is essential that policy-makers address all areas at the same time.” - The Future of Food and Farming Innogen perspective: Integration of natural science and engineering with social science perspectives is the only way to tackle systems-level problems like food security Close(r) coordination of government, academe and private

Scotland BUT: Scottish Population 5,168,500 World Population 6,928,198,253 ------------------------ = 0.074600925 % BUT: World-class agricultural research World-class engineering Literate, numerate population Long traditions of sustainable agriculture Strengths in livestock, crops and aquaculture Strengths in international development Growing interest in farm gate sales, Fife Diet (locavory) http://www.scotland.org/facts/population/ 2010 census http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/popclockworld.html 07/01/11 6,928,198,253

Scottish Food Research Consortium Scottish Agricultural College University of Edinburgh Institute of Aquaculture, Stirling Roslin Institute Scottish Crop Research Institute The Macaulay Land Use Research Institute [ … and others …. ]

Key Messages Demands on agriculture are mounting Agriculture is going to be increasingly technically complex Productivity gains are not the sole issue Responses to challenges have to be systematic and multi-level Well-integrated policies are needed Close(r) partnerships between government, academe and private sector are needed to mobilise knowledge within the UK and beyond

Proposed Topic of Discussion How can we create a mutually beneficial relationship between the Scottish Parliament and our emerging food security research consortium? To identify research priorities for the natural and social sciences To facilitate knowledge exchange between government To use the resources of government and academe to build bridges to the private sector To develop and mobilise Scottish expertise in agriculture and food policy within the UK and beyond