Off the Yellow BRIC Road Dr. Wendy Jeffus Harvard Extension School

— World 6,671,226,000 1 China 1,321,674,000 2 India 1,169,016,000 5 Brazil 187,434,000 9 Russia 142,499,000 BRIC Population GDP (PPP $M) —World66,228,669 2China9,984, India4,158,922 9Russia1,727,349 10Brazil1,701,183 Real ~75% Ruble ~23% Yuan ~10% Rupee ~20%

Does Brazil Belong in BRIC? Key Issues: – Business Environment – Inequality – Foreign Debt – Others… Photo Sources: wikipeida, google images

Brazil: Business Environment (Exhibit 17)

Inequality UnemploymentPopulation Below Poverty Household Consumption GINI Brazil9.6%31%lowest 10%: 0.7% highest 10%: 31.27% 56.7 Russia6.6%*17.8%lowest 10%: 1.7% highest 10%: 38.7% 40.5 India7.8%25%lowest 10%: 3.5% highest 10%: 33.5% 32.5 China4.2%**10%lowest 10%: 1.8% highest 10%: 33.1% 44 Source: CIA World Factbook *plus underemployment **urban unemployment GINI coefficient: 0 to 100 where 0 represents perfect equality

Brazil: History Portuguese Settlers Sugar 1822 Independence from Portugal Coffee “Brazilian Miracle” – Military Government achieved 9% growth per year Forced Savings Liberalized financial markets Subsidized loans to domestic industries Photo Sources: wikipeida, google images, economist

Brazil: Finance 1982 Suspended payments on foreign debt 1994 Annual inflation was 2500% 1999 Currency Crisis Photo Sources: wikipeida, google images, economist Source: World Fact Book RankCountryDebt % of GDP 32India Brazil China Russia7.70

Brazil: Lula First Term (1/03 – 12/06) – Macroeconomic Stability – Strong Export Promotion – Redistribution of Wealth

What are your suggestions? Second Term (1/07 – 12/11) – Inequality/Crime – MicroCredit – Employment Opportunities Source: wikipeida,

McKinsey: 5 Obstacles Informal Sector (Exhibit 17) Macro Environment – High real interest rate – High government debt Red Tape Public Services – Education – Justice – Security Infrastructure