Decadal Scale Climate Information, Climate Risk Management & Adaptation

Why? Climate risk management is currently focused on timescales of 20 years Many policy, planning and investment decisions occur on timescales of 1-20 years Climate change is accelerating – emerging risks and variability Need to merge adaptation and risk reduction on these “real world” time scales

What? Development of “seamless” climate forecasts and scenarios for 1 -> 10 -> 20 year timescales Marrying of seasonal and climate change methods, tools and communities Merging of data sources – observational, decadal predictions, centennial projections, downscaling A focus of extreme events Close integration with users in agriculture, water, food security, at multiple levels

Example Research Questions Where, if anywhere, are decadal predictions useful – in which regions, at what time scales, and for which agricultural drivers and communities? At what time horizon does a shift occur from forecasts to scenarios? What are the most appropriate analysis and communication methods, and what can we adopt from the seasonal and climate change scenarios communities? What kinds of adaptation and risk reduction methods in the agriculture and food sector would be appropriate on these timescales? Who are the beneficiaries of multi-year climate data, what are their information needs and to what extent can these needs be met?

Fit to CCAFS Agenda Science integration – climate and climate applications, hydrology, agriculture, policy and planning… Development – climate compatible development, disaster risk reduction Climate change agenda – critical timescale gap Agriculture and food – addresses climate as a driver of production, GDP, livelihoods, and planning agricultural adaptation Provide critical information for CG researchers Will link to multiple stakeholders – applied research, policy and planning, industry and farmers Deliver data - using state-of-art methods – on CG-relevant climate change and variability on timescales of 1-20 (30) years