December 9, 2008 Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Integrated Coal-fired Gasification Plant Resource Assessment Jeff King Northwest Power.

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Presentation transcript:

December 9, 2008 Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Integrated Coal-fired Gasification Plant Resource Assessment Jeff King Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generating Resources Advisory Committee Portland, OR January 22, 2009

December 9, 2008 General take on IGCC Lots of interest in period -many projects proposed Prospective GHG policy Adaptability of IGCC for CO2 capture Perception that IGCC performance (HR, emissions) would be markedly better than PC though at somewhat greater cost EPAct 2005 incentives. Post 2007 decline in enthusiasm - realism arrives healthy projects HR lower, costs higher than anticipated, not that much better than PC Construction cost escalation + capital -intensive technology Sequestration not a slam-dunk, proven sequestration (EOR, depleted gas & oil fields) may be limited Lawyers arrive on scene - sequestration liability/rights Decade until operational seques Remaining big advantage vs: PC is proven and lower cost CO2 separation technology PRB coal suitability uncertain - slurry gasifiers (GE) less suited to high-moisture coals

December 9, 2008 Coal price forecast

December 9, 2008 Technology Conoco-Phillips (CoP) E-Gas gasifiers w/ 2 x 7FB GTGs + HRSGs & STG Oxygen-blown entrained-flow two-stage slagging gasifier Two gasification trains S recovery, particulate filters, C bed Hg control Considerations Operating experience w/subbituminous coals (Plaquemine & Wabash) Short refractory life (high operating temps) High CH4 content (reduced CO2 separation capability)

December 9, 2008 Capital cost estimates: IGCC plants (no CS) Proposed 2008 (for hypothetical 2012 service) estimate $3600/kW Mesaba Lazard EIA NETL/DOE

December 9, 2008 Capital cost estimates: IGCC plants (w/CS) NETL/DOE EIA Lazard Proposed 2008 (for hypothetical 2020 service) estimate $4800/kW

December 9, 2008 Proposed IGCC power plant assumptions w/o CO2 Separationw CO2 Separation Net capacity Heat Rate8680 (39.3%)10760 Overnight capital ($/kW)$3600$4800 Fixed O&M ($/kW/yr)$45$60 Variable O&M ($/MWh)$6.30$8.50 CO2 transp & seq ($/ton CO2) --(later) Preconstruction36 mo Preparation12 mo Committed construction36 mo Earliest service in PNW

December 9, 2008 IGCC cost elements IOU financing 2020 service 80% CF Excluding CO2 transportation & sequestration cost

December 9, 2008 Resource options Early 2020s Transmission cost & losses to point of LSE wholesale delivery No federal investment or production tax credits Baseload operation (CC - 85%CF, Nuc 85% CF, SCPC 85%) Medium NG and coal price forecast (Proposed 6 th Plan) Bingaman/Specter safety valve CO2 cost

December 9, 2008 Questions How should we view CO2 sequestration in terms of the plan? Available or potential resource? If available, when, where and how much? Any other useful IGCC cost or performance information out there? Does our baseline forecast of future capital cost trends remain reasonable?