1 SUPERINTENDENT’S REPORT ON ENROLLMENT AND CAPACITY BOARD OF EDUCATION OF HARFORD COUNTY OCTOBER 22, 2007 Jacqueline C. Haas, Ed.D., Superintendent of Schools Mr. Thomas L. Fidler, President, Board of Education

2 REVIEW OF POLICY I. General Provisions: The Harford County Board of Education believes that it is in the best interest of students for the system to balance enrollments with capacities in order to: assure the quality of educational experiences; provide consistency in curriculum, instruction, and programs; maintain safe schools and promote the uniform and efficient use of school facilities and resources. With the advice of the Superintendent, the Board of Education shall annually review options for better matching school enrollments with the established state-rated school capacities. EACH YEAR THE SUPERINTENDENT WILL PREPARE A REPORT THAT CONTAINS AN ANALYSIS OF ENROLLMENTS RELATIVE TO STATE-RATED CAPACITIES.EACH YEAR THE SUPERINTENDENT WILL PREPARE A REPORT THAT CONTAINS AN ANALYSIS OF ENROLLMENTS RELATIVE TO STATE-RATED CAPACITIES. THE REPORT WILL CONTAIN RECOMMENDATIONS AND ALTERNATIVES, WITH RATIONALES, FOR ADDRESSING IMBALANCES; AND THE REPORT WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE BOARD OF EDUCATION IN OCTOBER.THE REPORT WILL CONTAIN RECOMMENDATIONS AND ALTERNATIVES, WITH RATIONALES, FOR ADDRESSING IMBALANCES; AND THE REPORT WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE BOARD OF EDUCATION IN OCTOBER. The Board of Education may direct the Superintendent to develop additional information and/or develop other alternatives for its consideration, or the Board of Education may propose other specific alternatives.

3 METHODOLOGY ELEMENTARY9/30/2007 ELEMENTARY ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTIONS BASED ON ACTUAL NUMBER OF STUDENTS ATTENDING. SECONDARY9/30/2007 SECONDARY ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTIONS BASED ON FIRST YEAR OF IMPLEMENTATION OF COMPREHENSIVE SECONDARY REDISTRICTING. REVISED (PROPOSED)CAPACITIES ARE IN ACCORDANCE WITH REVISED (PROPOSED) SRC CALCULATIONS. PROJECTIONS DEVELOPED BASED ON COHORT SURVIVAL METHOD; GRADE SUCCESSION RATIOS DETERMINED BY HISTORICAL TRENDS. ASSISTED BY HARFORD COUNTY PLANNINIG AND ZONING STAFF. RESIDENTIAL SUBDIVISION DATA CONSIDERED, BUT NOT DIRECTLY APPLIED; INCLUDED CONSIDERATION OF LAND INVENTORY REMAINING IN EACH SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREA. DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR IMPENDING BRAC INITIATIVE IMPACT (estimated 3,400 additional students by 2017).CURRENT PROJECTIONS DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR IMPENDING BRAC INITIATIVE IMPACT (estimated 3,400 additional students by 2017).

4 39,183 (-399) TOTAL ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2007: 39,183 (-399) 39,582 TOTAL ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2006: 39,582 17,748 (-185) ES ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2007: 17,748 (-185) 17,933 ES ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2006: 17,933 9,080 (-8) MS ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2007: 9,080 (-8) 9,088 MS ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2006: 9,088 12,196 (-205) HS ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2007: 12,196 (-205) 12,401 HS ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2006: 12,401 9/30/07 ACTUAL ENROLLMENT

5 TOTAL ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2007: 39,183 (-304) PROJECTED ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2006: 39,487 17,748 (-357) ES ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2007: 17,748 (-357) PROJECTED ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2006: 18,105 9,080 (-43) MS ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2007: 9,080 (-43) PROJECTED ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2006: 9,037 12,196 (-1) HS ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2007: 12,196 (-1) PROJECTED ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2006: 12,195 9/30/2007 ENROLLMENT vs. 9/30/06 PROJECTIONS

6 YearTotal , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,183 HISTORICAL ACTUAL ENROLLMENT

7 ELEMENTARY ENROLLMENT & PROJECTIONS 9/30/07 TO 9/30/15 SEE ATTACHED SHEETS

8 ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS RANKED FROM HIGHEST % CAPACITY TO LOWEST % CAPACITY SCHOOLCAPENR% Prospect Mill % Forest Lakes % Emmorton % Youth's Benefit % Fountain Green % Wm Paca/Old Post % Magnolia % Joppatowne % Riverside % Wm S. James % Hickory % Forest Hill % Home./Wakefield % North Harford % Bakerfield % Deerfield % Ring Factory % Bel Air % Meadowvale % Churchville % SCHOOLCAPENR% Abingdon % Church Creek % Jarrettsville % Norrisville % North Bend % Dublin % Edgewood % G. Lisby at Hillsdale % Darlington % Hall's Cross Roads % Roye-Williams % Havre de Grace %

9 ELEMENTARY ENROLLMENT ASSUMPTIONS DECREASE IN ELEMENTARY ENROLLMENT FOLLOWS PAST TREND TOWARD FLATTENING ENROLLMENTSDECREASE IN ELEMENTARY ENROLLMENT FOLLOWS PAST TREND TOWARD FLATTENING ENROLLMENTS SOME CURRENT DECREASES COULD BE DUE TO ABERRATION AT THE K-1 GRADESSOME CURRENT DECREASES COULD BE DUE TO ABERRATION AT THE K-1 GRADES 10 OF 32 SCHOOLS STILL OVER 100% CAPACITY, 22 OF 32 OVER 90% CAPACITY10 OF 32 SCHOOLS STILL OVER 100% CAPACITY, 22 OF 32 OVER 90% CAPACITY ELEMENTARY ENROLLMENT WILL SHOW A GRADUAL 10% TO 13% GROWTH BY 2014ELEMENTARY ENROLLMENT WILL SHOW A GRADUAL 10% TO 13% GROWTH BY 2014

10 SECONDARY ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTIONS 9/30/07 TO 9/30/15 SEE ATTACHED SHEETS

11 SECONDARY SCHOOLS RANKED FROM HIGHEST % CAPACITY TO LOWEST % CAPACITY SCHOOLCAPENR% Patterson Mill % Bel Air % North Harford % Fallston % Edgewood % Magnolia % Southampton % Havre de Grace % Aberdeen % SCHOOLCAPENR% Aberdeen % Harford Tech % C. Milton Wright % Bel Air % North Harford % Fallston % Joppatowne % Havre de Grace % Edgewood % Patterson Mill % MIDDLE SCHOOLS HIGH SCHOOLS

12 SECONDARY ENROLLMENT ASSUMPTIONS DECREASE IN SOME SECONDARY SCHOOLS ENROLLMENT FOLLOWS PAST TRENDDECREASE IN SOME SECONDARY SCHOOLS ENROLLMENT FOLLOWS PAST TREND SOME CURRENT DECREASES COULD BE DUE TO LARGE NUMBER OF WITHDRAWALS (SEE NEXT)SOME CURRENT DECREASES COULD BE DUE TO LARGE NUMBER OF WITHDRAWALS (SEE NEXT) 1 OF 8 MIDDLE SCHOOLS STILL OVER 100% CAPACITY1 OF 8 MIDDLE SCHOOLS STILL OVER 100% CAPACITY 3 OF 10 HIGH SCHOOLS STILL OVER 100% CAPACITY3 OF 10 HIGH SCHOOLS STILL OVER 100% CAPACITY IMPACT OF ADDITIONAL HIGH SCHOOL CAPACITY AT NHHS & PMMS/HS, COMBINED WITH COMPREHENSIVE REDISTRICTING IN 2007, WILL HAVE DRAMATIC POSITIVE EFFECT ON SECONDARY CAPACITY IN NEXT 3 YEARSIMPACT OF ADDITIONAL HIGH SCHOOL CAPACITY AT NHHS & PMMS/HS, COMBINED WITH COMPREHENSIVE REDISTRICTING IN 2007, WILL HAVE DRAMATIC POSITIVE EFFECT ON SECONDARY CAPACITY IN NEXT 3 YEARS

13 PURPOSE OF WITHDRAWALTOTAL Transfer to a Maryland public school outside the LSS139 Transfer to a public school in another state or territory of the United States, or to a United States overseas dependent school 186 Transfer to a nonpublic school in the same LSS122 Transfer to a Maryland nonpublic school outside the LSS63 Transfer to a United States nonpublic school or institution in another state or territory of the United States 9 Transfer to a school (public or nonpublic) of a foreign country9 TOTAL WITHDRAWN528 Students (Grades 8 – 11) Not Continuing in HCPS for

14 REVIEW OF INITIATIVES SCHOOLINITIATIVE COMPLETE YESNO PROSPECT MILL ELEMENTARY 1. RELOCATE 5 TH GRADE CLASS TO SOUTHAMPTON MIDDLE SCHOOL UNTIL THE NEW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL IS COMPLETED X 2. ADD TWO (2) RELOCATABLE CLASSROOMS X EMMORTON 1. ADD TWO (2) RELOCATABLE CLASSROOMS IN 2007/08 X 2. MONITOR ENROLLMENT AND SUBDIVISION GROWTH X YOUTH’S BENEFIT 1. ADD ONE (1) RELOCATABLE CLASSROOM IN 2007/08 X 2. PROCEED WITH REQUEST FOR MODERNIZATION/ REPLACEMENT X 3. ADDITIONAL CAPACITY X JOPPATOWNE HIGH SCHOOL 1. PROCEED WITH GYMNASIUM ADDITION W/REVISED SCOPE X 2. DELAY ADDITIONAL CAPACITY UNTIL FURTHER INVESTIGATION X FGES; PMES; HES; FHES; FLES 1. PROCEED WITH DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION OF NEW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL X 2. ADD ONE (1) RELOCATABLE, EACH, TO FOREST LAKES ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AND FOUNTAIN GREEN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL X GREENWAY FARMS SUBDIVISION 1. RE-ASSIGN TO HAVRE DE GRACE ELEMENTARY, HAVRE DE GRACE MIDDLE, AND HAVRE DE GRACE HIGH SCHOOLS X BEL AIR HS1. RETAIN TENTH GRADE CLASS AT FHS DESIGNATED TO MOVE TO BAHS IN 2007 X

15 RECOMMENDED OPTIONS FOR BALANCING ENROLLMENT WITH CAPACITY IN THE IDENTIFIED SCHOOLS RELOCATABLE CLASSROOMS BOUNDARY EXCEPTIONS FLUID PLACEMENT OF STUDENTS ADDITIONS (PREVIOUSLY APPROVED) NEW SCHOOL CONSTRUCTION RELOCATION OF PROGRAMS ATTENDANCE AREA BOUNDARY ADJUSTMENTS

16 School Name Capacity ' OPTIONS Enr.% % Bakerfield %547120% RELOCATABLE CLASSROOMS; ADDITION Emmorton %740135% RELOCATABLE CLASSROOMS; ADDITION; BOUNDARY ADJUSTMENTS Forest Hill %614106% CONSTRUCT VALE RD AND SCHUCKS RD ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS; BOUNDARY ADJUSTMENTS Forest Lakes %735134% Fountain Green %714125% Hickory %819118% Home./Wakefield %964106% Prospect Mill % % Magnolia %565113% RELOCATABLE CLASSROOMS; ADDITION North Harford %511105% RELOCATABLE CLASSROOMS; ADDITION Wm Paca/OPR % % RELOCATABLE CLASSROOMS; ADDITION Youth's Benefit % % CONSTRUCT ADDITIONAL CAPACITY; BOUNDARY ADJUSTMENTS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL INITIATIVES FOR

17 HIGH SCHOOL INITIATIVES FOR FOR School Name Capacity ' OPTIONS Enr.% % Aberdeen %139484% ADDITION; FLUID PLACEMENT OF STUDENTS Harford Tech % % RELOCATABLE CLASSROOMS; ADDITION; FLUID PLACEMENT OF STUDENTS; RELOCATION OF PROGRAMS

18 DIRECTION FROM THE BOARD OF EDUCATION??