Marko Papic Chief Strategist Geopolitical Strategy BCA Dialogue May – June 2013 Webcast May 28, 2013 Ian MacFarlane Chief Strategist Global Asset Allocation.

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Marko Papic Chief Strategist Geopolitical Strategy BCA Dialogue May – June 2013 Webcast May 28, 2013 Ian MacFarlane Chief Strategist Global Asset Allocation

2 FRONTIER MARKETS: THE NEXT PLAY? © BCA Research FM ex.GCC (2012) REAL GDP PPP PER CAPITA IN 2005 INTERNATIONAL DOLLARS MARKET CAP AS A % OF GDP SOURCE: THE WORLD BANK AND BCA CALCULATIONS. STRENGTH OF LEGAL RIGHTS 2012 LEVEL (LS) CHANGE (RS) DMEMFM SOURCE: THE WORLD BANK AND BCA CALCULATIONS. © BCA Research 2013

3 SHRINKING DEFICIT IS A GAME CHANGER © BCA Research U.S. FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT* (AS A PERCENT OF GDP) % Of GDP * RED BARS DENOTE CBO DEFICIT PROJECTIONS. % Of GDP Mean = 2.24% of GDP

4 CONGRESSIONAL VS. NATIONAL PARTY © BCA Research BALANCE OF POWER IN THE WHITE HOUSE* SMOOTHED** * DEMOCRATIC MINUS REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES. ** SMOOTHED USING HP-FILTER BALANCE OF POWER IN CONGRESS* SMOOTHED** * DEMOCRATIC MINUS REPUBLICAN HOUSE REPRESENTATIVES. ** SMOOTHED USING HP-FILTER. © BCA Research 2013 Democratic control Republican control Democratic control Republican control

5 CHINA – JAPAN RISKS © BCA Research MILITARY EXPENDITURE*: CHINA JAPAN Bn USD * SHOWN IN CONSTANT 2010 U.S. DOLLARS. SOURCE: STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE EXPORTS: CHINA JAPAN SHOWN AS 12-MONTH MOVING TOTAL. Bn USD © BCA Research 2013

6 FRANCE IS A RISK © BCA Research REAL GDP GROWTH: FRANCE MINUS GERMANY Ann% Chg UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: FRANCE MINUS GERMANY % © BCA Research 2013

7 RISKS IN MIDDLE EAST © BCA Research IRAQ OIL PRODUCTION*: CENTRAL ESTIMATE HIGH ESTIMATE Mn Bbl/ Day SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (2012). Mn Bbl/ Day