VIII Astana Economic Forum Panel session: Looking into the Future – The World Economy of the 21 st Century Dr. Juha Kaskinen Director FFRC

Megatrends and trends In future we will have more people, they live longer than before, they are more educated, more aware of global world and they mainly live in cities. Emphasis of the world economy sifts more and more to BRICS countries ja N 11’s (next eleven). Paradox: Scarcity of resources but more and more goods at the same time. Big data, digitalization, knowledge management challenges.

Megatrends and trends Changes of work and income distribution and their effects on well being and societies Sources of materials and energy are under development, production processes become more biotechnical but we are still dependent on fossil systems and structures for a long time (decades) and this slows the development of bio-economies. Technologies are creating more possibilities and the time frame from scientific discovery to technological application shortens.

Panic of –1843 Long depression 1873–1879 Great depression 1929– st and 2 nd oil crisis 1974–1980 Financial crisis 2007– st Kondratieff 1780–1830 Steam engine 2 nd Kondratieff 1830–1880 Railway, steel 3 rd Kondratieff 1880–1930 Electrification, chemicals 4 th Kondratieff 1930–1970 Automobiles, petrochem. 5 th Kondratieff 1970–2010 ICT 6 th Kondratieff 2010–20xx Environment technology? Nano-/biotech.? Health care? Modern economies fluctuate in a cycle of 40–60 years Rolling 10-year yields of the Standard & Poors 500 equity index and the Kondratieff’s waves Data source: Datastream. Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis. Casti–Ilmola–Rouvinen–Wilenius 2011: Extreme Events. Trajectories for a new cycle: exhaust of old innovation, excess financial capital, severe recession, social change…

Marita Aho 5 Technologies Business Creativity and innovativeness Networks Services Design Multiculturalism Corporate responsibility Needed skills Risk management Virtuality Life-cycle management New materials Changing business models customerialization networking specialization product-service concepts Demographic changes Ethics Security and safety Experience seeking ICT as central structure of production Global change of work division Sustainable development Smart surroundings Business environment

Some major challenges Automatization and robotization: good for business, bad for people? Corporate social and environmental responsibility Technological development versus new risks and threats Climate change adaptation; hindering already impossible? Global power politics ETC. Foresight is needed more than ever!

Many thanks for your attention! Juha Kaskinen (Dr. Soc. Sc.) Director Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics FI University of Turku Tel ;