Airborne Surveys of the Loop Current Complex From NOAA WP-3D Aircraft During DWH Oil Spill: Implication For Hurricane Intensity L. K. Shay, B. Jaimes,

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Structure & Structure Change IWTC VI, Topic 1 Chair: Jeff Kepert (Substituting for Hugh Willoughby) Rapporteurs Environmental Effects (E. Ritchie) Inner.

Advertisements

IWTC VI: 1.3 Air-Sea Interactions and Oceanic Influences Lynn K. Nick Shay Committee: P. Black, D. Barbary, M. Donelan, K. Emanuel, I. Ginis, C. Lozano,

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no Ocean Surface Warming by Polar lows - Observational Evidence from Microwave Data Øyvind Saetra, Torsten Linders and Steinar.

Air-Deployable Profiling Floats

CalWater2 Gulfstream-IV Measurements Janet Intrieri NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory April 23, 2014.

Experiments with Monthly Satellite Ocean Color Fields in a NCEP Operational Ocean Forecast System PI: Eric Bayler, NESDIS/STAR Co-I: David Behringer, NWS/NCEP/EMC/GCWMB.

GOVST-V Capital Hotel, Beijing, China, Oct 2014 Lecce, Italy, Feb 4-7, 2012 Links between OSEval and COSS Villy Kourafalou Univ. of Miami/RSMAS OSEval-TT.

5/22/201563rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL Experiments of Hurricane Initialization with Airborne Doppler.

Diagnostics for the ocean model component of coupled hurricane models Richard M. Yablonsky, Isaac Ginis (URI/GSO) Carlos Lozano, Hyun-Sook Kim, Naomi Surgi.

Evaluation and Improvement of Ocean Model Parameterizations for NCEP Operations L. K. Shay, G. Halliwell, J.Brewster, C. Lozano, W. Teague MPO, RSMAS,

Evaluation of the Simulated Ocean Response to Hurricane Ivan in Comparison to High-Quality Ocean Observations George Halliwell, Nick Shay Rosenstiel School.

Observations of the Coastal Ocean Response to Ivan: Implications for Hurricane Intensity Change Lynn “Nick” Shay, G. Halliwell, and W. Teague MPO, RSMAS,

Tropical Cyclones - genesis depends on ocean conditions - huge removal of heat energy from ocean - damage primarily from storm surge caused by strong.

1 Evaluation of Ocean Components in HWRF-HYCOM Model for Hurricane Prediction Hyun-Sook Kim and Carlos J. Lozano Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch, EMC.

Improving the Initialization of Coupled Hurricane-Ocean Models by Feature-Based Assimilation of Mesoscale Oceanic Features Richard M. Yablonsky and Isaac.

Oceanographic Research Flights Over The Gulf in Support of DWH Oil Spill Response (Work In Progress) Lynn K. “Nick” Shay (RSMAS/UM) NOAAs’ AOML (HRD, PhOD),

JHT Project: Evaluation and Improvement of Ocean Model Parameterizations for NCEP Operations L. K. Shay, G. Halliwell and B. Jaimes MPO/RSMAS, Univ. of.

2-5 Mar, 2015IHC1 Sensitivity of Ocean Sampling for Coupled COAMPS-TC Prediction Sue Chen 1, James Cummings 2, Jerome Schmidt 1, Peter Black 2, Elizabeth.

The Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) at NCEP

Town Hall Jim McFadden, Jack Parrish, Ian Sears and CDR Devin Brakob NOAA Aircraft Operations Center Paul Chang and Zorana Jelenak NOAA /NESDSI 67 th INTERAGENCY.

Observations of Ocean response to Hurricane Igor: A Salty Tropical Cyclone Wake observed from Space N.Reul 1, Y, Quilfen 1, B. Chapron 1, E. Vincent 2,

HURRICANE HEAT POTENTIAL ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITE RADAR ALTIMETRY Lynn K. Shay Goal: To understand the role of deep warm ocean mixed layers on heat potential.

ATMS 373C.C. Hennon, UNC Asheville Observing the Tropics.

JHT Project: Evaluation and Improvement of Ocean Model Parameterizations for NCEP Operations L. K. Shay, G. Halliwell, J.Brewster, B. Jaimes, C. Lozano,

Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

Ocean’s Impact on the Intensity of Three Recent Typhoons (Fanapi, Malakas, and Megi) – Results from the ITOP Field Experiment 1 I-I Lin

EVALUATION OF UPPER OCEAN MIXING PARAMETERIZATIONS S. Daniel Jacob 1, Lynn K. Shay 2 and George R. Halliwell 2 1 GEST, UMBC/ NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD

Participation: Mark DeMaria (NESDIS), John Knaff (CSIRA/CSU), Buck Sampson (NRL/JTWC), Michelle Mainelli (NHC), Isaac Ginis (URI), Lynn Shan (RSMAS). Work.

Dr. William (Monty) Graham The University of Southern Mississippi Department of Marine Science Stennis Space Center, Mississippi GCOOS.

NRL Marine Meteorology Division th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference New Airborne observing strategy: ‘Combo’ deployment of AXBTs and Sondes.

Tom Collow Physical Oceanography December 1, 2010.

EFFECTS OF OCEAN MIXING ON HURRICANE HEAT CONTENT ESTIMATES: A NUMERICAL STUDY S. DANIEL JACOB and LYNN K. SHAY Meteorology and Physical Oceanography Rosenstiel.

Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D Atmospheric and Oceanic Environment Via High Altitude Aircraft Observations Jeff Hawkins 1, Peter Black 2, Pat Harr 3,

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting National Hurricane Center.

Air-Sea Exchange in Hurricanes by Peter G. Black & Hurricane Intensity and Eyewall Replacement by Robert A. Houze Jr. Lynsie M. Schwerer Atmospheric Science.

Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 Image: MODIS Land Group, NASA GSFC March 2000 Improving Hurricane Intensity.

Toward an Integrated Air-Sea Real-Time Airborne Observing System for Landfalling Hurricanes Peter G. Black, Eric Uhlhorn and John Gamache NOAA/AOML/Hurricane.

Evolving Oceanic and Atmospheric Boundary Layer Structure During Hurricanes Gustav and Ike: Progress L. K. Shay, E. Uhlhorn, R. Lumpkin, P. Meyers, B.

Enhancing predictability of the Loop Current variability using Gulf of Mexico Hycom Matthieu Le Hénaff (1) Villy Kourafalou (1) Ashwanth Srinivasan (1)

Review of NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) 2008 Accomplishments and Plans for 2009 Eric Uhlhorn, Frank Marks, John Gamache, Sim Aberson, Jason.

SYNOPTIC OCEAN/ATMOSPHERE MEASUREMENTS IN HURRICANES ISIDORE AND LILI Lynn K. “Nick” Shay, Michael L. Black MPO, RSMAS, Univ. of Miami HRD, NOAA, AOML.

Seasonal evolution of the surface mixed layer Meri Korhonen.

IFEX-09: NOAA’s Hurricane Field Program Eric W. Uhlhorn NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Ocean Heat Content Estimates In The Eastern Pacific Ocean For SHIPS: Progress Lynn “Nick” Shay and Jodi Brewster RSMAS, University of Miami Goal: To assess.

 one-way nested Western Atlantic-Gulf of Mexico-Caribbean Sea regional domain (with data assimilation of SSH and SST prior to hurricane simulations) 

A Proposed New Strategy for Tropical Cyclone Reconnaissance Based on Western Pacific TCS08 Proof of Concept Peter G. Black (1), Jeffrey D. Hawkins (2)

Hurricane Research Division (HRD) Principal Investigator: Dr. Mark Powell Presented by: Sonia Otero Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) Real-time hurricane.

Observations of Ocean response to Hurricane Igor: A Salty Tropical Cyclone Wake observed from Space Nicolas Reul 1, Joseph Tenerelli 2 1 IFREMER, Laboratoire.

Doppler Lidar Winds & Tropical Cyclones Frank D. Marks AOML/Hurricane Research Division 7 February 2007.

Evaluation of HYCOM Upper Ocean Mixing Parameterizations S. Daniel Jacob 1, Lynn K. Shay 2, George R. Halliwell 2 and David Le Vine 3 1 GEST, UMBC/ NASA.

A Case Study of Decoupling in Stratocumulus Xue Zheng MPO, RSMAS 03/26/2008.

Ocean Initialization System for Coupled Hurricane-Ocean Models and its Transition to HWRF Isaac Ginis and Richard Yablonsky University of Rhode Island.

Evaluation of Upper Ocean Mixing Parameterizations S. Daniel Jacob 1, Lynn K. Shay 2 and George R. Halliwell 2 1 GEST, UMBC/ NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD

VOCALS - Ocean Science and Implementation. An eastern boundary - model biases - cloud cover - ocean-atmosphere.

JP1.18 Physical processes associated with surface wind field uncertainty in Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005): Use of present and future observational.

Shuyi S. Chen Rosenstial School of Marine and Atmospheric Science University of Miami Overview of RAINEX Modeling of 2005 Hurricanes In the eye of Katrina.

Shuyi S. Chen, Robert A. Houze Bradley Smull, David Nolan, Wen-Chau Lee Frank Marks, and Robert Rogers Observational and Modeling Study of Hurricane Rainbands.

EXTREME WINDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM SPACE

Impact of a warm ocean eddy’s circulation on hurricane-induced sea surface cooling with implications for hurricane intensity Richard M. Yablonsky and Isaac.

Rosenstial School of Marine and Atmospheric Science

TOPAZ monitoring and forecasting system

Hurricane Irene Hurricane Sandy

Derek Ortt1 and Shuyi S. Chen, RSMAS/University of Miami

NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX)

Mark A. Bourassa and Qi Shi

Gulf of Mexico Loop Current

Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Modeling Experiments in Hurricanes

Nicolas Reul1, Joseph Tenerelli2

D1 D2 D3 D4 Figure 2 Initial sea-surface temperature (SST, color) and ocean heat content (OHC, contour) fields for the coupled model simulation of Hurricane.

NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology

Presentation transcript:

Airborne Surveys of the Loop Current Complex From NOAA WP-3D Aircraft During DWH Oil Spill: Implication For Hurricane Intensity L. K. Shay, B. Jaimes, J. Brewster, P. Meyers, C. MaCaskill, (UM/RSMAS), S. Paul (NOAA/AOC), F. Marks, G. Halliwell, E. Uhlhorn (AOML/HRD/PhOD) J. McFadden and B. Kearse (NOAA/OMAO/AOC) R. Lai, A. Lugo-Fernandez (DOI/BOEMRE)

A New Classification?

Tracks of Katrina and Rita (2005) in Northern Gulf of Mexico Relative to Oil Rigs. Over 35% of the Rigs were damaged or destroyed in the Gulf. Pain at the pump!

MOTIVATION: Katrina wind field with HRD wind fields (Powell et al). relative to the the LC and WCR based on satellite data in Aug 05. SST Image from TMI (lower panel). Is SST Enough? WCR LC FC In 2005: Katrina (896 mb), Rita (892 mb), Wilma (882 mb) Trifecta

Plan for NOAA WP-3D profiling over MMS Moorings (In collaboration with AOML HRD, AOC, TPC, NCEP) Expendables deployed from P-3 and proposed moorings relative to the LC, WCE and CCE superposed on late Sept 05 altimetry derived 26 o C isotherm Depth (After Rita). Deliverables include: V, T, S profiles to m resolution. Surface winds (SFMR, GPS) provided by HRD. Atmospheric profiles of V, T and 5-m resolution.

Approach: Airborne Expendables (AXCP :1500 m; AXBT: 350 m; AXCTD:1000 m; GPS) deployed in lawnmower pattern across the LC/Warm and Cold eddy features. Flight level winds, temperatures, etc Brightness temperatures from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) Downward Looking IR Downward Looking Camera Nine Flights plus Bonnie Wake Two Ocean Heat Content Mapping Flights for Hurricane Intensity Forecasting (satellite calibration) Recurrent Theme: Ocean observations critical in improving oceanic and coupled modeling under weak and strong winds.

Summary of DWH and OHC Flights Deployed (Successful) FlightAXBTAXCPAXCTDTOTAL H52 (48) H29 (28)26 (10)11 (10)66 (48) H42 (39)22 (11)2 (2)66 (52) H41 (37)22 (9)2 (1)63 (47) H37 (34)23 (11)6 (6)66 (51) H53 (49)15 (10)068 (59) H34 (23)22 (8)8 (7)63 (38) H58 (53)06 (6)64 (59) H59 (54)12 (12)6 (3)77 (69) H35(33) H6(6)6(5)012(11) H62(58)020(17)82(75) H30(30)10(5)20(20)60(55) TOTAL538(492)158 (88)81 (72)777 (645)

Subsurface thermostad (WP-3D data) Remnant of a deep mixed layer caused by strong cold fronts? Strong stratification over the upper 50 m. Waters below the 100 m depth level get colder over time by effect of a developing cold core eddy. dh: layer thickness between the 19 and 20 o C isotherms. Contours are the depth of the 20 o C isotherms.

Anomalous low salinity in waters warmer than 19 o C, including the thermostad. Anomalous buoyancy frequency (very strong stratification) Horizontal currents over the upper 200 m are predominantly SW (from the DWH rig). WP-3D data DWH rig AXCP AXCTD

Evolution of Eddy Franklin: In Situ Data

Wind Rows Aligned with Winds-Langmuir Cells? Winds were about 3 to 5 m/s. Alternating convergence and divergence cells Implications redistribution of oil in surface layer and near-surface mixing.

T(z) Data Assimilation Into Models

T (°C), GoM HYCOM W P-3 Assimilation T (°C), GoM HYCOM W/O P-3 Assimilation ΔT, Impact of P-3 Assimilation (0.5°C contour interval)

Taylor Diagram for T(z) over All 9 Flights ( m)

Summary DWH Flights provided unprecedented coverage of an evolving Loop Current and eddy shedding. Need a coherent blueprint for the future when there is another oil spill. The GOM is an important contributor to ocean circulation that affects the eastern seaboard and impacts hurricane intensity. Targeted obs (LC or storm-coordinate system) of temperatures, currents and salinities needed to improve the models. We cannot solely rely on satellite data sets and synthetic T(z). Synthesizing differing data sets (expendables, floats, gliders, etc) into a coherent mosaic of complex processes that impact fragile ecosystems. Effectively assimilate data (update cycles?) into the oceanic models to better understand potential pathways of oil in real time-relevant to coupled models.