The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Nevada Labor Market Briefing Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation Don Soderberg, Director Dennis Perea, Deputy Director Bill Anderson, Chief Economist Prepared by the Research and Analysis Bureau for Presentation to the Economic Forum: November 2014

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency State Unemployment Rate  7.3% Unemployment Rate (SA 1 )  Down 0.3 percentage point from August; down from 9.6% a year ago  Off from a recession peak of 13.9%  The unemployment rate has declined or held steady, relative to the prior month, for 39 straight months  Lowest reading since July 2008  Compares to a 5.9% rate for the U.S.—1.4 points higher  Lowest differential since mid seasonally adjusted

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Unemployment Rate at 7.3%; Lowest Since July 2008 NV vs. the U.S. Unemployment Rate (SA) 2

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Initial Claims Less than Half of Recessionary Peak (5-year downtrend) Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance 3

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency NV’s Rate is 5 th Highest in the Nation Unemployment Rate Rankings (SA) 4

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Long-Term Unemployment Half of Peak Nevadans Unemployed for 27+ Weeks (CPS data; 12-month moving average) 5

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency 51K Nevadans are Unemployed Because They Lost Jobs; Half of Peak Job “Losers” in Nevada (12-month moving average) 6

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency 12K Nevadans Unemployed Because They Left Jobs; Encouraging Uptrend Job “Leavers” in Nevada (12-month moving average) 7

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency FT Employment Rises; PT Holds Steady Full-Time vs. Part-Time Employment (CPS data; 12-month moving average) 8

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Including Discouraged Workers Adds About a Pct. Point to the “Official” Rate Alternative Measures Of Labor Underutilization 9

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency State Employment (SA)  Non-Farm Job Levels Up 38,200 Relative to a Year Ago  3.2% gain compares to 1.9% in the nation  45 consecutive months of year-over-year gains  Down -1,800 Over the Month  8,600 (NSA 2 ) jobs were expected to be added based upon historical trends, but 6,800 were actually added, resulting in the seasonally adjusted decline  2 nd consecutive monthly decline…estimation model may be correcting for over-estimates during prior months 2 not seasonally adjusted 10

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency NV Adds 38,200 Jobs Relative to Year- Ago; Trending up for 45 months Nonfarm Jobs in Nevada (SA) 11

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Job Growth Hovering in 3-4% Range the Past Year; Some Signs of Easing Job Growth (SA; year-over-year) 12

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency NV on Pace to Add Close to 100K Jobs Since 2010 Nevada Job Growth Since

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Job Gains > Losses in 13 Straight Qtrs. Business Employment Dynamics: Private Sector Gross Job Gains vs. Gross Job Losses (SA) 14

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Opening Gains > Closing Losses Business Employment Dynamics: Gross Job Gains vs. Gross Losses in New & Closing Establishments (SA) 15

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Nearly All Sectors Contributing; PBS Leads the Way; Construction up 6,100 YTD Job Growth by Sector 16

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Seasonal Holiday Hiring Could Approach Last Year’s 13,500 September-December Growth in Trade/Transportation Jobs 17

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency NV Jobs up 3.6% Through First 9 mos. This Year; Double Growth in the US Job Growth (year-over-year) 18

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency NV Job Growth Outpaces US in Nine of Ten Super Sectors YTD Job Growth; NV minus US 19

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Job Growth Stronger Than in 48 States QCEW Job Growth Rankings (# of states with slower private sector job growth than NV; 2014 YTD through IQ) 20

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Nevada’s Economy Dominated by Small Establishments Number of Establishments by Employment Size 21

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Big Job Gain in Est. with 1,000+ Workers; Small/Mid-Size Est. also Solid 2013:IQ-2014:IQ Job Growth by Establishment Size 22

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Small Business Adding Employment Since 2010 Employment in Establishments with less than 100 Workers 23

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Wages Expand by 1.6% During This Year’s First Half NV Avg. Weekly Wage Growth: Year-Over-Year 24

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency New Hire Wages About Two-Thirds of Overall Average Average Monthly Wages 25

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Job Levels Surpass Pre-Recessionary Peak in 2016/2017 Total Jobs: History and Forecast 26

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency By 2017, Nearly 40,000 Construction Jobs Added Since Bottoming Out Construction Jobs: History and Forecast 27

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Going Forward, Growth Expected to Strengthen for Manufacturing Jobs Manufacturing Jobs: History and Forecast 28

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Retail Trade Should Continue Adding About 4,000 Jobs Annually Retail Trade Jobs: History and Forecast 29

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Expectations are for an Additional 3,000 Healthcare Jobs per Year Healthcare/Social Assistance Jobs: History and Forecast 30

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency AFS Jobs Have Reached Historical Peak; 40K Additional Jobs Expected Accommodation/Food Services Jobs: History and Forecast 31

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency NV’s Unemployment Rate Trending Down…6.5% in 2015; 5.5% in 2016 Unemployment Rate: History and Forecast 32

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency For Additional Information, Please Contact: Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation Research and Analysis Bureau Bill Anderson Chief Economist (775) follow us on