Waves of Democracy Ideas of Samuel P. Huntington

The First “Long” Wave 1820s widened the suffrage in U.S. to include working class white males. This expansion of the electorate continued through 1920 when women were extended the right to vote in the U.S. In 1926 there were 29 democracies

First Reverse Wave In 1922, following the coming to power of Mussolini in Italy, a number of countries moved away from democratic rule. Hitler came to power through the elections of 1932 and 1933 in the Weimar Republic By 1932 there were only 12 democracies.

Post World War II The second wave of democratization reached its zenith in 1962 with 36 democracies. The second reverse wave occurred between 1960 and 1975 and reduced the number of democracies to 30.

The 1980s and the third wave: five factors Deepening legitimacy problems with existing authoritarian regimes Global economic growth taking off in the 1960s Shift in doctrine of Catholic Church through the Second Vatican Council of 1963-65 causing an ideological shift among church leaders

External Actors Changes in policies of external actors such as the European Community, the United States, and the Soviet Union. The collapse of the Soviet Union caused a dramatic change in global power manipulations and authoritarian regime support

Snowballing Demonstration, stimulation, and contagion across “ripe” populaces The transformation of Eastern Europe following the collapse of the Soviet Union African democratic transitions Snowballing works as a trigger only if the conditions favorable to democracy exist in a country

The third reverse wave: contributing factors Weakness of democratic values among key elite groups and the general public Severe economic setbacks Social and political polarization caused by leftist governments Exclusion of populist, leftist, and lower-class groups from power by conservative groups

Additional factors Breakdown of law and order from terrorism or insurgency Intervention of conquest by nondemocratic foreign power Reverse snowballing

Obstacles to Democratization Home-grown Marxist-Leninist regimes Continuation of personal dictatorships, military regimes, one-party systems Radical Islam The absence of experience with democracy

Leadership changes Some form of leadership change within authoritarian systems typically precede democratization Weakness in democratic values among aged leadership usually continues throughout the lives of the autocratic leadership