Stratospheric temperature trends from combined SSU, SABER and MLS measurements And comparisons to WACCM Bill Randel, Anne Smith and Cheng-Zhi Zou NCAR.

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Presentation transcript:

Stratospheric temperature trends from combined SSU, SABER and MLS measurements And comparisons to WACCM Bill Randel, Anne Smith and Cheng-Zhi Zou NCAR and NOAA

Objective: extend NOAA v2 SSU data record with SABER and MLS observations SSU (April) SABER 2002 (Feb)-2015 (continuing) MLS 2004 (Sept)-2015 (continuing) direct overlap for Sept 2004 – April 2006

Data details: SABER Limb emission viewing geometry Broadband radiometry, T(p) derived from CO 2 emissions Coverage: 50 o S – 80 o N / 80 o S – 50 o N (60-day yaw cycles) Altitudes ~ km; Vertical resolution ~2 km Aura MLS Limb emission viewing geometry T(p) derived from O 2 microwave emissions Near-global coverage (82 o N-S) on a daily basis Altitudes ~10-90 km; Vertical resolution ~3-4 km SSU: NOAA v2 (Zhou et al, 2014, JGR) Nadir viewing CO 2 emission radiometers Recalibrated and merged NOAA operational data

Data analysis details: 1) Construct SSU-equivalent layer temperatures from SABER and MLS 2) Deseasonalize each data set using: for SSU for SABER for MLS 3) Normalize all anomalies to zero for the overlap period: Sept – April ) Regression fits using standard multivariate model: (Jan 1979 – Oct. 2014) linear trend, solar cycle, ENSO, QBO (2 orthogonal terms) + volcanic periods omitted from fits (volcanic effects as residuals)

SSU channel 3 40 o S black: SSU blue: SABER red: MLS differences comparison of deseasonalized anomalies:

time series of anomalies at equator: combined SSU + MLS

residuals anomalies (black) and regression fit (red)

latitudinal structure of residuals for NOAA-8 SSU2: each curve shows one month during persistent patterns suggest bias correction problem for NOAA-8 SSU2

original SSU data (v2.0) revised NOAA-8 SSU2 data (v2.1) residuals from regression fits (at equator)

global average anomalies global residuals E P

changing temperature trends in the upper stratosphere in response to ozone observed ozone in upper stratosphere Bourassa et al 2014 decrease pre-1995 increase post-1995

MSU4 SSU1 SSU3 trends vs. latitude (linear trends for ):

MSU4 SSU3 SSU1 black: SSU + MLS red: SSU + SABER nearly identical results using MLS and SABER:

-.2 monthly-varying trends cooling in summer middle-high latitudes shading = statistically significant MSU4(K/decade)

-.6 SSU2 -.9 warming in Austral winter strong cooling in NH summer - + upper stratosphere:

MSU4 SSU1 SSU3 trends in K/decade -.6 SSU2 -.9 similar patterns for al 3 SSU channels

-.9 SSU3 upper stratosphere:

CMIP5RCP6.0 Comparisons with WACCM simulation

observations WACCM WACCM sampled like SSU, MSU4

WACCM MSU4 SSU1 SSU3 SSU1 SSU3 MSU4 WACCM trends (K/decade) observations WACCM

WACCM observations WACCM stronger cooling MSU4

WACCM observations upper stratosphere: SSU3 very different

MSU4 SSU3 observationsWACCM SSU3 MSU4 solar cycle WACCM quite reasonable agreement

Key points: SABER and MLS show nearly identical variability (and trends when combined with SSU) Observed trends for : Small trends in lower stratosphere Upper stratosphere: global cooling, except for high latitude SH Warming in Antarctic winter upper stratosphere (!) Comparisons with WACCM: Overall consistent with observations, but: Much stronger ozone hole cooling in LS Global cooling in upper stratosphere (no Antarctic winter warming)

What is causing the wintertime warming over Antartica? 2 hPa wave forcing climatology 2 hPa wave forcing trends increasing wave forcing ?? increases in wave forcing from ERAinterim reanalysis

extra slides

MSU4 SSU3 Volcanic signals derived from residuals (avg. of first year after eruption)

volcanic signal

solar signal

another example: SSU channel 2 equator differences