Climate Outlook – May 2010 El Nino Dissipates; Neutral or La Nina Conditions Expected by September.

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Presentation transcript:

Climate Outlook – May 2010 El Nino Dissipates; Neutral or La Nina Conditions Expected by September

Stronger El Niño Stronger La Niña El Nino La Nina now

FMA 2010 precip anom FMA precip compos El Nino wet dry wet dry

Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→ ) rpss: G (0.008) T (0.015) likelihood: G (0.004) T (0.008) Heidke: G (0.042) T (0.068) GROC: G (0.539) T (0.565) FMA 2010 precip tercile categ FMA 2010 precip probab forecast from mid-Jan Verification of Recent Season Precipitation Forecast

Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→ ) rpss: G (0.114) T (0.177) likelihood: G (0.054) T (0.090) Heidke: G (0.301) T (0.414) GROC: G (0.574) T (0.626) FMA 2010 temp tercile categ FMA 2010 temp probab forecast from mid-Jan Verification of Recent Season Temperature Forecast

Southern Oscillation o.. D T ENSO-related Sea Level Pressure Seesaw Pattern Southern Oscillation Index

Last week’s SST anomaly ||||||||||||||||||||||

Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies 5N – 5S Climate Prediction Center NCEP ************************** maximum influence on climate

Stronger La Niña Stronger El Niño **** **** *******

mid-Mar

mid-Apr

mid-May

May 2008 Zonal Winds Return to Average El Nino Disspates to ENSO-neutral Below-Average Thermocline Depth Takes Over from West May 2009 May 2010

Recent phase and strength of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) mid- April 2010, & mid- May 2010 neutral ENSO weak + = MJO Neutral(-) ENSO

current (SST, sea level pressure, winds, cloudiness, convection)

Nino3.4 SST anomaly forecasts from Apr

Nino3.4 SST anomaly forecasts from May

from April

from May

May 2010 SST forecasts (plus and minus uncertainty scenarios at right) MEAN PLUS MINUS

New climate forecasts from May 20, 2010

E North Pacific JJAS NTC 45%35%20% ACE 40%35%25% Tropical Cyclone Forecasts May 2010 NTC = Number of Tropical Cyclones ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy West N Pacific JASO NTC 25%35%40% ACE 30%40%30% North Atlantic JJA NTC 15%35%**50%** ACE 20%35%**45%** No Location Shift below normal near normal above normal

Has the 2009/10 El Nino had health impacts?

Spatial distribution of plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity From Malaria Atlas Project (MAP)

Distribution of Dengue Fever and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever equator

Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies 5N – 5S Climate Prediction Center NCEP ************************** maximum influence on climate

JFM 2010 precip anom JFM precip compos El Nino wet dry wet dry

JFM 2010 precip observed tercile category JFM 2010 precip probab forecast from mid-Dec wet obs normal obs dry obs dry season (no forecast) can we expect higher risk of malaria and/or dengue?

JFM 2010 precip observed tercile category wet normal dry Brunei: 77 cases in JFM: high rainfall, poor rubbish management Thailand (Phuket): 123 cases in 2010: above-average temperature North Queensland (Tully): 4 cases, March: recent rains and high temperature, and migration from dengue-ridden Cairns to north Venezuela (central): 26,724 cases in 2010: abandonment of fumi- gation and env’tal cleanup by Ministry of Health; water storage Notable dengue outbreaks during first 4 months of 2010

This ppt file is available to anyone on the shared drive: ……/tonyb/iri_html /fctbriefingmonyr