ECON 492: Comparative Financial Crises Week 3 26 September 2012 David Longworth This material is copyrighted and is for the sole use of students registered in ECON 492. This material shall not be distributed or disseminated to anyone other than students registered on ECON 492. Failure to abide by these conditions is a breach of copyright, and may also constitute a breach of academic integrity under the University Senate’s Academic Integrity Policy Statement. ECON 492 Week 31

Where does topic fit in? (Prediction)Transmission Policy Response PreventionCauses ECON 492 Week 32

Administrative Matters Volunteer for class rep to administer USTA in final class Permission to share Queen’s of each discussant with the relevant author so that he/she can send his/her PowerPoint to the discussant. I will suggest that the author sends a test after I send it to him/her (early next week). ECON 492 Week 33

What the 2-Page Proposal Should Have 1.Question(s) to be answered or Hypothesis to be tested – Why is the question or hypothesis interesting? 2.Literature to be read – And any models to be referred to 3.Data sources and sources for facts to be used – Or data and facts that need to be found 4.Outline of economic analysis to be used to answer the question(s) or to test the hypothesis: – Models, statistical analysis, graphs 5.Outline of story suggested by economic analysis ECON 492 Week 34

New Reference: IMF GFSR Sept Chapter 3, “The Reform Agenda: An Interim Report on Progress Toward a Safer Financial System” – Government and Central Bank Crisis Measures, (Table 3.4) – Reference to: The World Bank Global Financial Development Database, for data on banking systems (Table 3.6) ECON 492 Week 35

Data and Graphs Real (deflated by price index) versus nominal Seasonally adjusted versus raw Ratios (e.g., to GDP) versus a trending variable Rates of change versus levels Deviation from trend versus level versus change Logarithms versus levels Comparisons of levels or ratios: Index to 100 in a common base year or a common point (crisis?) in cycle There is no “right” answer for all circumstances, but actively think about the above. ECON 492 Week 36

Reminder: Next Week Two-page outline (proposal) due in instructor’s office on Thursday October 4 – Sign up today for a 15 or 20 minute time slot (compulsory) – Paper copy to be given to instructor – Bring a copy for yourself too – Discussion will be about the path ahead ECON 492 Week 37

Suggestion for this week See the instructor to get detailed feedback on your choice of topic, as well as: – Discussing references and models – Discussing sources for data and facts – There is a sign-up sheet if you want to come at a specific time ECON 492 Week 38