Using Anomalies to Forecast High Impact Events David L. Beachler NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office Chicago IL 14-16 Mar 2012 Great Lakes Operational.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Large-scale context for the UK floods in Summer 2007 Submitted to Weather, 14 May 2008 Mike Blackburn 1 John Methven 2 and Nigel Roberts 3 (1) National.

Advertisements

Warren R. Snyder Science & Operations Officer WFO, Albany, New York.

Anticipating Heavy Rainfall: Forecast Aspects By Richard H. Grumm* National Weather Service State College PA and Robert Hart The Pennsylvania State.

Forecasting Distributions of Warm-Season Precipitation Associated with 500-hPa Cutoff Cyclones Matthew A. Scalora, Lance F. Bosart, Daniel Keyser Dept.

Tropical Cyclone-frontal interactions Lee and Eloise Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA

Kevin S. Lipton, Meteorologist, NWS Albany NY Richard H. Grumm, SOO, NWS State College PA Jason Krekeler, Meteorologist Intern, NWS State College PA.

Upcoming Changes in Winter Weather Operations at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Great Lakes Operational Meteorological Workshop Dan Petersen, Wallace.

March 17, 2011 Severe Weather Workshop Mike York (Forecaster / Winter Weather Program Leader)

Life on the edge Patterns and Probabilities of heavy rainfall Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College PA

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property NOAA/NWS Ohio River Forecast Center Hydrology 1913 to Ohio State Severe Weather Symposium.

Data and Methodology Snowfall totals were derived from the Midwest Regional Climate Center (MRCC) for individual National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative.

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property Precipitation Potential Placement ER Flash Flood Workshop Jeff Myers/Jim Noel NOAA/NWS/OHRFC

NWS / SPoRT Coordination Call October 2010 NWA posters/presentations Scott Overpeck, Chris McKinney, and Kent Prochazka, WFO Houston/Galveston. The Coastal.

Forecasting extreme rainfall Iand getting people to listen to watches or warnings Can be difficult!! Wes Junker Wes Because…….

R. A. Houze, Jr., U. Romatschke K. L. Rasmussen AGU Fall Meeting, Remote Sensing of Natural Hazards, San Francisco, 9 Dec 2011 Mesoscale Aspects of Storms.

Northeast Convective Flash Floods: Helping Forecasters Stay Ahead of Rising Water Joe Villani - National Weather Service, Albany, NY Derek Mallia - University.

A tale of two severe weather surprises – The isolated event of 16 July 2010 and the severe weather outbreak of 17 July 2010 Neil A. Stuart NOAA/NWS Albany,

Using Standardized Anomalies to Identify Significant Heavy Rain Events Jason Krekeler And Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA.

A Compare and Contrast Study of Two Banded Snow Storms Part I – January 6 th, 2002.

Forecast Challenges Associated with the Valentine’s Day, St. Patrick’s Day and Tax Day Nor’easters of 2007 Neil A. Stuart NWS Albany, NY NROW 9.

NATS Lecture 17 Air Masses. Supplemental References for Today’s Lecture Lutgens, F. K. and E. J. Tarbuck, 2001: The Atmosphere, An Introduction.

Frantic About Frances Richard H. Grumm and John LaCorte National Weather Service State College, PA

The Use of Ensemble and Anomaly Data during the May 2006 New England Record Rain Event Neil A. Stuart Richard Grumm Walter Drag NOAA/NWS Albany,

A Diagnostic Analysis of a Difficult- to-Forecast Cutoff Cyclone from the 2008 Warm Season Matthew A. Scalora, Lance F. Bosart, Daniel Keyser Department.

Anomalies and Ensembles as tools to anticipate ice storms Richard Grumm NOAA/NWS State College, PA.

CSTAR Update: New Tools for More Efficient Use of Ensembles in Operations Brian A. Colle, Minghua Zheng, and Edmund K.M. Chang, School of Marine and Atmospheric.

1 Utilizing Standardized Anomalies to Assess Synoptic Scale Weather Events in the Central United States Barbara E. Mayes and Joshua M. Boustead – NWS WFO.

Evaluating Potential Impact of Significant East Coast Winter S torms by Analysis of Upper and Low-Level Wind Anomalies Neil A. Stuart NOAA/NWS Albany,

Patterns of Historic River Flood Events in the Mid-Atlantic Region Richard H. Grumm NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, State College, Pennsylvania and Charles.

Rating Snowstorms Based on Travel Impacts Ernie Ostuno National Weather Service, GRR.

2013 Spring Weather Outlook MARAC Region V Meeting April 24, 2013 Cindy Bean Meteorologist National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office San Joaquin.

Winter Storms by Paul Kocin Winter Storm Expert The Weather Channel and Dr. Gerry Bell Climate Prediction Center.

2015 Monsoon Season Outlook Daniel Henz Meteorologist Flood Warning Branch Flood Warning Users Workshop June 24, 2015 Phoenix, Arizona Monsoon t-storm.

Verification of the Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems‘ Analog Guidance Probabilistic Products Chad M. Gravelle and Dr. Charles E. Graves.

1 The Historic Ice Storm of January 26-28, OUTLINE Brief review of the stormBrief review of the storm Review of the environment and forcing (Why.

“Effects of Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies on the Climate of Southern South Carolina and Northern Coastal Georgia ” Whitney Albright Joseph.

Air Masses. Differences in air pressure are caused by unequal heating of Earth’s surface – creates wind patterns – Deflects in a curved path because of.

Overview of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Lisa Holts.

Ensemble Forecasting and You The very basics Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA

Numerical Weather Prediction and EPS Products: Severe Weather and Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Hamza Kabelwa Contributions from Richard H. Grumm.

Using Standardized Anomaly Data in Operational Forecasting Mike Bodner NCEP/HPC Development Training Branch September 2011.

Northeast Convective Flash Floods: Helping Forecasters Stay Ahead of Rising Water Joe Villani - National Weather Service, Albany, NY Derek Mallia - University.

Robert LaPlante NOAA/NWS Cleveland, OH David Schwab Jia Wang NOAA/GLERL Ann Arbor, MI 15 March 2012.

Investigative Results of the Use of Positive Standardized Anomalies for Precipitable Water to Diagnose Heat Waves and Episodes of High Apparent Temperature.

Using Ensemble Probability Forecasts And High Resolution Models To Identify Severe Weather Threats Josh Korotky NOAA/NWS, Pittsburgh, PA and Richard H.

Aviation Weather Forecaster Training Plans LeRoy Spayd NWS Office of Meteorology Chief, Science & Training Core Aviation Weather Forum July 26, 2000.

AMSU Product Research Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere Research Benefits to NOAA: __________________ __________________________________________.

Using Standard Deviation Data in Operational Forecasting Mike Bodner NCEP/HPC Development Training Branch Fall 2004.

Heavy snow impacted Italy and the Balkans with record snows on both sides of the Adriatic ” of snow fell in 18 hours. Pescocostanzo, Italy – 21 miles.

The Winter Winter Recap and Spring Outlook Jason Hansford Senior Forecaster National Weather Service Forecast Office Shreveport, LA.

The Record South Carolina Rainfall Event of 3-5 October 2015: NCEP Forecast Suite Success story John LaCorte Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National.

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 1 HPC Hydrometeorological Testbed April 2009.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 July 2010 For more information, visit:

WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002 Summary. Why Train on Winter Wx? Significant hazard to life and property deaths / year $ 1 to 2 Billion.

Precursors to the Initiation of Nocturnal Convection in the Eastern Plains Matthew Dux March 1, 2006 WFO Pleasant Hill, MO.

AN INDEX FOR ANTICIPATING EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS Alzina Foscato and Patrick Market Dept. of Soil, Environmental & Atmospheric.

Focus areas of the NWS Missouri/Souris River Floods of May-August 2011 Service Assessment – Per the NOAA and NWS Strategic Plans, gather stakeholder input.

M ETEOROLOGICAL C ONDITIONS A SSOCIATED WITH THE 2008 MIDWEST FLOOD Ray Wolf NOAA / National Weather Service Davenport, Iowa University of Iowa – Learning.

NAME SWG th Annual NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop State College, Pennsylvania Oct. 28, 2005.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 29 June 2009 For more information, visit:

Using Standardized Anomaly Data in Operational Forecasting Mike Bodner NCEP/HPC Development Training Branch Spring/Summer 2005.

Northeast Regional Climate Information Projected Climate Changes for the Northeast More frequent and intense extreme precipitation events, 100-year storm.

Heavy Rain Climatology of Upper Michigan Jonathan Banitt National Weather Service Marquette MI.

The UK at risk? Cameron Dunn Chief Examiner The UK at risk?

West Virginia Floods June 2016 NROW 2016 Albany NY

Basic Forecasting Tips

FORECASTING EASTERN US WINTER STORMS Are We Getting Better and Why?

Richard Grumm National Weather Service State College PA

Communicating Uncertainty via Probabilistic Forecasts for the January 2016 Blizzard in Southern New England Frank M Nocera, Stephanie L. Dunten & Kevin.

Frantic About Frances Richard H. Grumm and John LaCorte

Presentation transcript:

Using Anomalies to Forecast High Impact Events David L. Beachler NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office Chicago IL Mar 2012 Great Lakes Operational Meteorology Workshop Chicago IL

An anomalous outline… Salient Points: –Anomalies –EPS Cases: –Eastern United States Winter Storm: 1-2Feb2011 –Western Great Lakes Flood (Ridge Roller): July2010

Why such an outlier? Outliers in a data set can pose significant problems –Visually examine data…aids in identifying outliers Envelope of possibilities Clustering –NWP outliers at times are difficult Operational Solutions at times offer chaos –EPS at times offers focus & generally less chaos Once identified then what? –Forecasters leverage the significance Tempted to eliminate…to simplify the forecast Outliers have their place Forecasters hone their skills along the fringes –Live on the edge through NWP forecasts Aid in fine-tuning EPS Eliminate the noise

EPS: Big Picture EPS provides the forest amongst the trees! –PATTERN RECOGNITION Quick assessment of basic parameters –U-wind :FGEN/Trowal/Potential temp gradient East-West –Positive between ̊ –Negative between ̊ –V-wind :Moisture transport North-South –Positive between ̊ –Negative between ̊ –PWAT –MFLUX

Anomalous U-wind Strengthening Easterly Jet

Anomalous U-wind Strengthening Easterly Jet

GEFS: 24-hr QPF

SREF: Snowfall Threats

Impacts… Heavy Snow from OK to MI –Chicago 21.2” (72hr total) South of Low Ice –Southern Plains/New England –~0.5” Ice Indiana Anomalous LLVL Easterly Jet Inertial Gravity Wave (IGW)? –Likely resulted in Thunder/Blizzard conds from MO/IL 15Dec1987 Observed IGW similar to 31Jan- 2Feb2011

Western Great Lakes Flood: 21-23July2010 Dominant Subtropical Ridge –Galarneau & Bosart 2006 coined “ridge rollers” Flooding aligned with Anomalous PWAT/Ridge –23-24July2010: Heavy Rainfall (flooding) IA > 15” Failure of Lake Delhi Dam (Eastern IA)

Composite: 17-26July2010

Plume Forecast Offer point based analysis Probabilistic approach to DSS Visualize clustering and outliers with mean

Service Assessment: Record Floods Middle Tennessee & Western Kentucky 1-4 May 2010 At the time of this report, a paper under peer review entitled “The Devastating Mid- Mississippi Valley Floods of 1-2 May 2010”, by Richard H. Grumm, National Weather Service, noted the following:“The event of 1-2 May 2010 had …key ingredients for a significant heavy rainfall event (Doswell 1996), and for historic events (Bodner 2011); This case is a classic case on the value ofanomalies in identifying a potentially significant heavy rainfall event... [which] clearly defined a threat of a Maddox Synoptic event type with a strong southerly jet and a surge of high PW [precipitable water] air into the region.” As the NWS focuses increasingly on Decision Support Services, offices and operational staff at all levels should place more attention on anomalies and pattern recognition in advance of potentially significant events.

Closing… All events demonstrate some anomaly Noise amongst EPS suggests lower confidence –Forecasters live on the edge and can improve through operational envelope of solutions Minimal spread provides better vision into the future –Ability to provide high-confidence forecast for DSS

References Web resources: –SREF/GEFS options and Ensemble Threats Page Forsythe, J.M., S.Q. Kidder, S.J. Kusselson, A.S. Jones, T.H. Vonder Haar, 2009: Increasing the land coverage of blended multisensory total precipitable water products for weather analysis. 16th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, Phoenix, Arizona htmhttp://ams.confex.com/ams/89annual/techprogram/paper htm Grumm, R.H. and R. Hart. 2001: Standardized Anomalies Applied to Significant Cold Season Weather Events: Preliminary Findings. Wea. and Fore., 16,736–754. Hart, R. E., and R. H. Grumm, 2001: Using normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic scale events objectively. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2426–2442. Junker, N. W., R. H. Grumm, R. Hart, L. F. Bosart, K. M. Bell, and F. J. Pereira, 2008: Use of standardized anomaly fields to anticipate extreme rainfall in the mountains of northern California. Wea. Forecasting,23, 336–356. Kusselson, S.J., S.Q. Kidder, J.M. Forsythe, A.J Jones, L. Zhao, 2009: An update on the operational implementation of blended total precipitable water products. 23rd Conference on Hydrology, Phoenix, AZ NWS Service Assessment Tennessee Floodhttp:// THE USE OF ENSEMBLE AND ANOMALY DATA TO ANTICIPATE EXTREME FLOOD EVENTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. – Neil A. Stuart(1), Richard H. Grumm(2), John Cannon(3), and Walt Drag(4)